Mozambique's elections on Tuesday are almost certain to be won by the ruling party, Frelimo, and President Filipe Nyusi but it is unclear if the results will establish badly-needed stability and economic growth.
Mozambique, with a population of nearly 30 million people, has a strategic place in southern Africa with a 2,470 kilometer (1,500 mile) Indian Ocean coastline and substantial deposits of natural gas.
Pummeled by twin hurricanes earlier this year, it has also been troubled by sporadic violence from opposition rebels and a new spate of attacks by suspected Islamic extremists. Frelimo has never lost a national election since 1975 when it overthrew Portuguese colonial rule, though its leaders have never clung to power beyond the maximum two terms.
Although the main opposition party, Renamo, is unlikely to win the national elections, the party's new leader, Ossufo Momade, has been unexpectedly effective.
Momade "has been a big, big surprise on the campaign," said Fernando Lima, veteran journalist and head of independent media house Mediacoop. "He speaks in very straightforward language - very populistic and he benefits from Renamo's popularity, particularly in the countryside."
This is also the view of Alex Vines, head of the Africa Program at British think tank Chatham House and a veteran Mozambique-watcher.
"Momade's magic is that he is drawing a large following in Nampula and Zambezia provinces," said Vines, who is in Mozambique as part of the Commonwealth election observation mission.
Renamo is doing well enough to worry Frelimo, said Vines particularly after last year's municipal elections saw an increase in turnout but a decline in the Frelimo vote.
"That is an indicator for a worse performance in the national elections," Vines said. "Frelimo knows this and has less resources to splash this time and this is why this looks to be an ill-tempered and nasty election."
There have been killings most notably of Anastacio Matavel, who headed a consortium of local election observers in Gaza province, a Frelimo stronghold where a suspiciously high number of voters were registered. Matavel was gunned down by a gang of five assassins, police said, admitting that four were members of the police's own elite rapid reaction force.
There have also been confrontations between the main parties up and down the country, with the opposition frequently complaining of being prevented from campaigning by Frelimo dirty tricks ranging from physically blocking roads in the country's largest city, Matola, to booking out the municipal square for the whole campaign period, in the ruby mining town of Montepuez, in northern Cabo Delgado province.
---AP, Maputo
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