Covid-19 was first diagnosed in China which is now affecting 213 countries around the world. It is estimated so far indicate the virus could trim global economic growth by 3.0% to 6.0% in 2020.
Developing countries are the worst victim of the global economic crisis; it has deprived labor workers snatching their daily livelihood and decreases agricultural activities. This paper provides an outlook for the creeping slowdown of the Indian Economy in the light of the global economic depression due to coronavirus pandemic.
Though today the lead indicators show that slowdown creeps in Indians economy, this paper aims at the strategic challenge-response and requiring effective policy attention to prevent and mitigate this downturn.
Many Indicators like Consumption (Demand), Social safety net, Incentives, Cloud based work and payment policy, Interest rate subventions, Market policy, Migrant workers and FDI, Tariff extraction, Automation, CSR, IBI, GR were examined in this paper for the GDP upriver, to adopt with the new normal world.
This paper is carried out with the help of desk research and content analysis of secondary literature available and accessible from online libraries, websites of different agencies, newspapers, YouTube, and public domains.
Both the government and non-government organizations need to set up cloud-based work at home facilities for smooth functioning. The central bank has to come forward to minimize the economic losses by both short-run and long-run policies as the size and magnitude of the economic damage will depend on how the government handles this sudden pandemic.
To avoid tangible economic shock-mainly medical shock as the affected people can no more be human capital and contribute to GDP, to minimize the loss Government should fix the price of hygiene-related items and rational expenditure and allocation of budgets should be ensued for health sector and declare a health insurance policy.
Interest rates subvention is a possible response to meet the required monetary, fiscal, and health insurance policy. Incentives and higher overtime pay should be endured for front line workers.
The affected sectors (MSMEs, Tourism and hospitality, Aviation, Automobile, Real estate, Weeding, and event management sector) are in need of loan extension, urgent relief, and subsequent stimulus announcement to survive. Reducing fixed charges and taxes, credit forbearance would also aid to ease the pressure on sectors facing an abrupt fall-off in demand.
Non-banking financial firms slowed their loan growth and pause installations collection. Some N.G.Os or organizations can produce or manufacture to meet the local level's demands with the utility of their enterprise.
The central bank may need to buy bonds, quick and easy digital survey can be conducted to detect which firms are likely to survive and which are to abolish, and these data will help to avail the firms by ensuring necessary liquidity.
The government should focus on growth centers or market development to abate market turbulence by significance monetary easing to make finding easier once, to run, and flourish rural economy market growth centers must be made for growth upriver. This policy will create more opportunities for work and increase farm-based and non-farm based productivity through the supply chain.
Agriculture sector constitutes around 15% of GDP. Agriculture sector needs immediate relief and expanded subsidy for crop yielding and harvesting, Agriculture will restraint food inflation targeting moderates the pass-through from commodity price shocks.
We have to pay concentration on importing and stocking of daily necessary foods and baby food items, E-commerce business or take the way of organic food in Karnataka can be an instance to sharp organic growth in demand as they opened up the system also can be implemented on processed frozen fisheries items.
To get the advantage of the blue economy fishing sector must be considered for incentives and set minimum tariffs on importing electrical signaling. We can follow David Recardo's free trade model, by not imposing higher tariffs to encounter producers. Future growth can be driven by the replacement of human workers by automation.
The government also needs to ensure the provision of working capital at low-interest rates to start-ups, new emerging markets need to be protected from 'Creative Destruction'.Provident fund constraints should be given to low paid employees of a small business whose job triggers them to be jobless.
Supporting them by wage subsidy directly through digital payment, enlisting their record will help to find out them in the future if needed. Social safety nets, including health care, maternity, disability, unemployment, old scheme policy must be broadened. IBI programs are fruitful, people need foods, Aids, and Incentives in cash form.
The food subsidy should be increased. Expanded Gratuition Relief (GR) must be allocated and provided to the valid targeted marginalized group of poor people. General and Vocational online training classes are in desperate need of an overhaul to continue the education system.
As supply recovers, while commodity prices remain stalled, there is an opportunity to switch from the low credit and money growth, to credit led recovery that also reduces the financial sector stress, changing the composition of expenditure would boost economy.
Provinces and states that are a source of migrant workers should attract FDI packages, migrant workers especially in urban areas, have less information credit to survive, which compels them to dig their rainy day's savings. Though the pandemic is adversely affecting global economic beyond anything experienced in nearly a century, earlier strictly imposed lockdowns implemented for two months have less potential to wreak the supply chain.
Researchers also found that that country affected by Covid-19 may nonetheless experience large losses of more than 20% their GDP. Life loss in terms of human cost cannot be compensated by any means, but an emergency strategic work plan can turn the economy full of optimism.
The writer is a Teacher and Research Scholar, Department of Sociology, Varendra University, Rajshahi, Email: [email protected]