Myanmar election 2020 and Rohingyas' future

 

The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, is set to return to power in Myanmar after a landslide victory in 2020 general election. According to the results obtained so far, Suu Kyi is coming to power with better results than the 2015 elections.

Myanmar's parliament has 440 seats in the lower house (Pyithu Hluttaw) and 224 seats in the upper house (Amyotha Hluttaw). The country's constitution guarantees the army some 25 percent of the seats in Parliament. Accordingly, 110 seats in the lower house and 56 seats in the upper house are reserved for the army. As a result, general election is not held in all seats of lower and upper house. General election is held in 330 seats of lower house and 168 seats of the upper house.

As in 2015, Suu Kyi's party NLD has won the majority of seats in both the houses of the parliament. According to the official results from the Union Election Commission (UEC) of Myanmar, the NLD even managed to improve on the lopsided and euphoric victory that it enjoyed at the last election in 2015. The NLD even increased its majority in the lower house from 255 seats to 258 (out of 330 up for election), and in the upper house from 135 to 138 (out of 168). In 2015 NLD won a total of 390 seats in parliament. Exceeding that number, Suu Kyi's party has won 396 seats this year. As a result, Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD is set to form a new government in Myanmar.

It is now confirmed that the NLD will retain power, thanks to the popularity of its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But an estimated 1.6 million voters from ethnic minorities in conflict-affected areas were barred to franchise their voting rights in the 2020 election, ostensibly because of security concerns. Among them were many Rakhine Buddhists in Rakhine state, who were able to vote in 2015, but were disenfranchised this year. In addition, more than 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims fled to Bangladesh and an estimated 600,000 Rohingyas still living in Myanmar, who have long been denied citizenship and other basic rights, were also excluded from the 2020 election.

Overall picture of 2020 General

election in Myanmar

Due to the extensive restrictions on the flow of information, the overall picture of the Myanmar election is very limited, and it is hard to get from outside of the country. However, international media have reported that the 2020 general election was held peacefully in Myanmar without any major incidents. Queues were observed before polling stations as millions of voters wearing masks cast their ballots in around 50,000 polling stations set up across the country, international media reports. The voters franchised their voting rights, despite widespread Covid-19 infection. More than 1,600 people have been killed so far in Myanmar by the Covid-19 pandemic.

This year's election was the country's second general election since the ending of 50 years of military rule in Myanmar and the general election was held on November 8. The total number of registered voters in this year's Myanmar election was 37 million. And a total of 5,643 candidates representing more than 90 parties contested for 1,171 national, state, and regional seats. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is the main opposition party to Suu Kyi's led National League for Democracy (NLD).

Rohingyas stripped of voting rights

Many observers had questioned the credibility of the 2020 Myanmar election because of the disenfranchisement of voting rights of virtually all the Rohingya. The year 2020 marked as the second time that the Rohingyas have been excluded to franchise their voting rights.

In 2015 the military-backed government led by former army general Thein Sein revoked first time the voting rights of Rohingyas and then in 2020 same thing happened. The Rohingyas are ethnic and religious minority people living in the Rakhine state of Myanmar since generations but deprived of voting rights from 2015. They lost their citizenship rights by the 1982 citizenship law of Myanmar but after that up to 2015 the Rohingya have the voting rights. Back in 2015, many Rohingya believed that the NLD would restore their rights but instead, the Suu Kyi led government has institutionalized disenfranchisement and normalized discriminatory standards against Rohingya.

There are over a million Rohingyas are now living in various camps of Bangladesh, but it is estimated that there are still 600,000 Rohingyas living in Myanmar although among them more than 120,000 are living in IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps of Myanmar. The scenario of the world's most persecuted minority - Rohingyas is like that these people are now living far more outside of Myanmar than inside without having any basic rights. Some analysts say, the Rohingyas situation is like that they do not have the right to have rights.

Muslims make up only four percent of Myanmar's 54 million people but now the Muslims do not have any mainstream political parties. There are several distinct Muslim communities in Myanmar, not all of which share the same cultural or ethnic background. While the country's largest Muslim population was once Rohingya people who reside in Rakhine State. More than 1 million Rohingya Muslims fled to Bangladesh in 2017 to escape persecution by the Myanmar army in the country's Rakhine state. So, the question remains whether Muslims now make up four percent of Myanmar's population.

Except the Rohingya Muslims all other Muslim community could franchise their voting rights in Myanmar although there are some difficulties. It is to be mentioned here that two members of parliament from other Muslim communities besides Rohingya have been elected this year. Both Muslim candidates won the election as NLD candidates. Among more than 1,100 candidates in Aung San Suu Kyi's ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), only these two were Muslim candidates. One of them is SithuMaung (33), who has been elected to a parliamentary seat in central Yangon area. The other Muslim candidate is Win Mya Mya (71) who won from Mandalay region.

None of the Muslim candidate had the opportunity to contest in the 2015 election, but this year two Muslim candidate have had the opportunity to represent the Muslim community in the election. Even in this year's election, 23 percent of Muslim candidates were rejected, compared with just 0.3 percent for other religious groups, according to International Crisis Group watchdog.

Among the two Muslim MP-elect Win Mya Mya, is a democracy activist and Muslim woman who has dedicated her life to the NLD since its formation in 1988. She is a loyal supporter with a strong heart who faced life-threatening oppression under the military regime and had to spend 12 years in the prison.

After the victory another Muslim MP-elect Sithu Maung said in an interview with AFP, "I'll work for people of all religions, particularly those who are discriminated against and oppressed or deprived of human rights." He also said, "If any of my constituents are ever degraded or face injustice, I'll defend them." But Sithu Maung refused to be drawn publicly on the issue of the stateless Rohingya Muslims, whose persecution in Myanmar has cast a pall over his party leader Suu Kyi in the international community's eyes.

Though Muslims of other ethnic heritage than Rohingya, officially accepted as citizens of Myanmar, but they also commonly face discrimination. Like many Muslims in Myanmar, MP elect SithuMaung had to wait years to obtain an ID card that labelled him as "mixed blood" ethnicity, demoting him to different queues in government offices that make people particularly vulnerable to corruption. In his interview Sithu Maung said, "People who haven't experienced it just can't understand what it's like."

New Government - Any new hope for Rohingyas

Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been criticized around the world for supporting the 2017 Rohingya genocide. But the Rohingya genocide does not seem to have had any effect on Suu Kyi's politics in Myanmar, rather Suu Kyi's popularity has grown within the country, proof of which is the result of this year's election.Therefore, it is questionable whether 2020 election will bring any solution to the ethnic conflict in Myanmar or any good news for the more than 1.1 million Rohingyas who have fled to Bangladesh or those Rohingyas who are still staying in Myanmar.

Despite winning the 2015 election due to constitutional bar over citizenship, Suu Kyi could not hold the position of Prime Minister or President.Then Suu Kyi was declared the country's de facto leader or the state counsellor.This year too, after landslide victory of NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi, may again be appointed as the new state counsellor. Is the new victory of NLD or new state counsellor will bring any benefit for Rohingyas? Probably, the answer will be "No" as the Rohingyas did not get any benefit in the last five years when Suu Kyi was also a state counsellor.

After almost 50 years under a military dictatorship, Myanmar began its transition towards a democratic government in November 2010. And in the same year, the military junta also freed, once seen as a beacon for human rights leader and Nobel peace prizewinner Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.At Suu Kyi's releasethe minority Rohingya Muslims were optimistic about their future as the Rohingyas have always been staunch supporters of Suu Kyi. But it did not take long time to turn Rohingyas hope into greed. After her release in 2010 till today Suu Kyi has not used the word Rohingya. In 2020 at the ICJ (International Court of Justice) hearing Suu Kyi only used the word Rohingya when referring to ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army).

Although the world media uses the word Rohingya but the use of the word Rohingya is banned inside Myanmar. Myanmar authorities first announced their Orwellian ban on the word "Rohingyas" in June 2016, two months after the installation of a government headed by Suu Kyi. Critics said ban on using the word "Rohingya" is part of Myanmar's attempt strip the Rohingya minority of their identity and rights.

Myanmar now faces a lawsuit accusing it of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while the International Criminal Court is investigating the country for crimes against humanity. Analysts say, Suu Kyi did nothing to stop rape, murder and possible Rohingya genocide rather defended the Myanmar Military at the ICJ (International Court of Justice), classifying the genocide as a "mere internal armed conflict".

This year's election in Myanmar has not brought about any qualitative change, those who were in power for the last five years, are coming back to power. And the control of military on the incumbent Government will also be the same as previous. Therefore, international analysts believe that there is a little possibility of the new ruling party moving away from its previous stance on the Rohingya issue.

Now more than 1.1 million Rohingyas have been living in 34 camps in Bangladesh for more than three years but Myanmar has taken virtually no initiative within this period to bring them back.Besides, there are more than 300,000 Rohingyas previously staying and living in Bangladesh for more than 20 years.When will these Rohingya peoplebe able to return to Myanmar or how eager will the new Myanmar Government be to take them back?Only time will be able to answer this question.Apparently, the outcome of Myanmar's 2020 election and the surrounding situation do not carry any good news for the future of the Rohingya people.

The writer is a Doctoral Researcher of Massey University, New Zealand