Sheikh Hasina is popular not only in the country but in the outside world also.
A Bangla proverb says, there is always lull before the storm. Now Bangladesh politics is going through a period of lull for the last one year. Of course Corona is the main cause for this calm situation in the country, but Corona could not prevent the presidential election in America. After the second wave of Corona people were advised to stay at home everywhere. Naturally all the political activities have stopped except some small and stray incidents here and there. Due to Corona political leaders have got enough time to pass a relaxed time at home and they only express their opinions on online media. The party in power in Bangladesh may think that they have come to power for eternity. There is no visible opposition in the country except some criticism from the so-called civil society.
This civil society has lost their credibility and nobody gives a damn to their criticism now. An elderly minister of Awami League was talking to me the other day. With great pride he said that Awami League has crushed all opposition and there is no problem for Sheikh Hasina to come to power next time also. When a party in power thinks that there is no opposition against them in their country and they will remain in power for indefinite period that is a warning sign for a big popular party. In 1954 when Muslim League was in absolute power in Pakistan and changed the leadership in the centre by replacing Khwaja Nazimuddin with Mohammed Ali Bogra, they thought there was no formidable opposition against them. At that time the fragmented opposition in East Pakistan formed a united front under the leadership of Fazlul Huq, Bhashani and Suhrawardy. That opposition toppled the mighty Muslim League from power.
Afterwards when another absolutely powerful ruler General Ayub upon finishing 10 years of his rule called it his decade of development and contemplated to become a lifelong president of his country, a mass movement in both the wings of Pakistan toppled him and his party in power fell like a house of cards. In Britain after the winning the Second World War Churchill was hailed as the saviour of the nation and just after the war of 1945 he called a general election. Everyone said he would have an easy victory because people almost worshipped him as their saviour. But in that election Churchill was defeated heavily. So it is difficult to predict people's mood.
Sometimes people dislike a popular government because they have been in power for a long time. Awami League has been in power for three consecutive terms and Sheikh Hasina is popular not only in the country but in the outside world also. Now question arises in spite of her popularity will Awami League win the next election? My assumption is that 80% Awami League leaders and MPs are hopeful about their next election victory. They are heavily depending on the popularity of Sheikh Hasina because there is no alternative leadership in the country now and there is no visible opposition in the political field. BNP exists in name but not in action and Jammat has now gone underground after their leaders were executed for war crimes in 1971. A section of civil society under some old political fossils is now almost silent after losing their credibility.
So Awami League leaders may think they are invincible now. I think someone should warn them that without visible opposition now they will have to face a more strong opposition in the future. In reality Awami League is no more a popular political party. But its leader, Sheikh Hasina is overwhelmingly popular and she is not depending on her party's support but her party needs her for their existence. BNP is now an almost dead political animal and Jamaat is an absconding party. But the real opposition against Awami League is invisible communal forces and ultra-fundamentalist ideals. They are not dead but biding their time underground. If there was a political party opposing Awami League with political agenda there was no fear. But when a country is divided in its identity and is influenced by fundamentalist forces then it is really dangerous.
In India during the early period of independence the Congress had no real democratic opposition. Their real opposition came from ultra-fundamentalist party like Hindu Mahasabha. Congress banned Hindu Mahasabha after the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. The next powerful party was the Communist party but they were divided and fighting among themselves on their divided allegiance between Beijing and Moscow. Perhaps Congress also thought at that time that they had no fear of losing the throne in Delhi. But after the death of Indira Gandhi democratic politics could not become strong.
The banned Hindu Mahasabha changed its colour became Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and is now in power. Similarly in Bangladesh it seems there is no powerful political opposition now and Awami League has defeated the fundamentalist Jamaat. But in reality Jamaat's political structure is broken, not their medieval idealism.
The whole society is now influenced by medieval religious values. It has extended its influence on the party in power also. That is the reason that the government and Awami League took this dangerous policy of compromise with those forces. In next general election the broken political structures of the opposition which united and was defeated in the last election will form an alliance of all the anti-democratic forces and they will seek support from the whole society which is under the influence of anti-democratic fundamentalist values. Awami League will have to fight not a political opposition but a combined social opposition. The country has already rejected the old political leadership of the country. This time a more powerful social opposition will come out publicly and Awami League will have to face it. This is not my political forecast but a warning to Awami League - the only hope for the democratic and secular people of Bangladesh. They must now awake from their slumber and come to realise the present reality.
India is our great friend. It is also a great democracy. Congress is no more in power but the majority people of India are vastly democratic and secularist in spite of the rise of Hindutava. India has still kept democracy alive and remains a great democratic country. Fortunately Bangladesh and India are now close friends. Indian democracy is still alive and a safe guard of democracy for the whole Asia. India's friendship will strengthen the democratic forces in Bangladesh also. The people of both countries should unite to resist the rise of religious fascism. Awami League should rekindle its secular ideals dictated by the father of the nation and restrain its compromising attitude towards fundamentalist forces. Awami League is the only hope for leading the country to its secular future. The weakness of this party will weaken the democratic and secular forces in Bangladesh. They have a strong leader in Sheikh Hasina but they have lost their faith in their ideals. However, there is still time to recover it.
The writer is a prominent journalist based in United Kingdom.
Latest News