The geopolitics of South Asia is changing dramatically in recent times. Asia's two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and China, are engaged in a game of influence in South Asia.
Both these countries are constantly working to maintain their dominance in geopolitics by bringing South Asian countries under their control. Vaccine diplomacy has been added to the race to dominate in this critical time of the Corona epidemic. India has provided millions of doses of the Covid-19 vaccine to Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan and the Maldives. Apart from vaccine diplomacy, India is also pursuing various initiatives to expand its influence in South Asian countries. India is constantly trying to dominate by signing trade, defense cooperation and strategic agreements with South Asian countries. India makes good use of its geographical position to dominate the geopolitics of South Asia. On the other hand, China, one of the economic and military powers in Asia, has already emerged as a major player in South Asian geopolitics. China, however, is not a South Asian country like India. But China's interest in South Asian geopolitics is growing. In South Asia, China wants to rein in India's hegemony. In almost all the countries of South Asia, China is participating in the development of the countries through economic assistance and investment. Using its economic power, China has been able to build warm relations with almost all the countries in South Asia except India. At the same time, five South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, are planning to set up an emergency vaccine platform to tackle the Covid crisis. China is taking appropriate steps to avail this vaccine opportunity. So in the geopolitical context of South Asia, the China-India episode is now giving birth to a new polarization in world politics. Both China and India are now busy establishing their prestige in South Asia. Both the countries want to influence South Asia in any way and both countries consider each other as rival; which is increasingly complicating the geopolitics of South Asia.
The key factor in Bangladesh's geopolitical play is its geography. The country shares land borders with Myanmar and India. Towards the sea, Bangladesh maintains three-Chattogram, Mongla and Payra-out of the 12 ports in the Bay of Bengal. India, an economically emerging state, spans three sides of the border with Bangladesh and, now more than ever, has a keen eye for Bangladesh's strategies and policies. Due to its geographical position, Bangladesh is a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, any regional coordination between the giant trade blocs of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (Saarc) has to include Bangladesh. The country is also a vital geopolitical ally to India, in that it has the potential to facilitate greater integration between Northeast India and Central India.
Bangladesh has so far maintained a 'balancing game' between China and India. But it is difficult and risky to keep this balance, because failure to maintain balance can create animosity with any one. Therefore, the success of Bangladesh's foreign policy will depend on how efficiently Bangladesh can walk on the 'rope' of this balance. By making proper use of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh can become a hub of the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor and contribute to communication between South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and China. But for that, Bangladesh must be at the forefront and long-term national interest must be given priority. It is unknown at this time what Joe Biden will do form his chair.
The QUAD committee was first formed in the wake of the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in 2004. Although Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally proposed the quad in 2007, for the past decade its activities remained dormants. But in response to the Belt Road Initiative by Xi Jinping in 2013, the United States resumed quad talks with its three allies in Asia in 2017. In addition to the Sino-Indian conflict, the quad has become another important factor in the geopolitics of South Asia. Recently, this alliance has created quite a stir in international politics. The main objective of the Quad, comprising the United States, Japan, Australia and India, is to make the Indo-Pacific region more effective in the international arena. China sees it as a threat to its sovereignty, independence, security, free trade and maritime cooperation between the member states. According to international relations analysts, China's concern over the quad is due to recent US efforts to expand the quad into the quad-plus. China fears that the United States may pressurize Bangladesh to join the quad through India. If Bangladesh joins the quad in the face of that pressure, it could be a big headache for China. Meanwhile, the Chinese ambassador has also expressed concern over the issue. As a result, Bangladesh has faced a diplomatic challenge.
Another major diplomatic hurdle for Bangladesh is the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis. The country currently hosts more than a million displaced Rohingyas from neighbouring Myanmar. Since the inception of the crisis, efforts made by the Bangladesh government for Rohingya repatriation have been inadequate. Decisive diplomatic actions must be there to accelerate the repatriation process. The willingness of the Myanmar government to provide repatriation seems uncertain, while the United Nations and other international humanitarian agencies don't appear to be proactive enough. Although some Western countries have been delivering relief funds, this can't be a permanent solution. Due to the pandemic, Bangladesh has already fallen behind in terms of its socioeconomic progress. This refugee crisis needs to be solved post-haste. The recent military coup in Myanmar and the assassination of Rohingya leader Mohib Ullah make the situation more complicated. It is high time for Bangladesh to tighten its relationship with the Western states and urge proactive initiatives in the negotiation process for Rohingya repatriation.
The European Union (EU) is Bangladesh's largest trade partner. The EU's aid to Bangladesh also accounts for 40 percent of the total aid that the country receives from the rest of the world. Although the EU-Bangladesh relationship seems aid-centric, there are other areas to work on to realise this relationship's full potential. Since the Biden administration took office, the US' position in Europe has changed. Most recently, the introduction of AUKUS has created havoc in the region. In addition, the Angela Markel era has come to a close. The introduction of new leadership in Germany will undoubtedly reshape the political stance of the EU in the world order. Geopolitical shifts such as these might give Bangladesh a chance to work closely with the EU in the new format.
In conclusion, we can say that the increase in military capability may strengthen, Bangladesh's geopolitical position. In all stutations, we shall have to be very careful. Only the impartial & balanced foreign policy will play a significant role in the geopolitical condition of Bangladesh. Moreover, sound relationship with neighboring countries will strengthen Bangladesh's geopolitical position. It is important to note that connectivity with the US, UK and EU must get the maximam hight and priority to be foucused. In between the no and yes opention he medieval stant can help Bangladesh from any geopolitical harm. Besides, strategic geopolitics is essential to keep the country free from pressure in any crisis and changing situation. Above all, it is not enmity but friendship with all countries that helps to keep the country's geopolitics stable. So let's keep confidence in diplomatic philosophy of Bangabandhu and increase the scope of our diplomatic work and consider the interest of the country high.
Dr Forqan Uddin Ahmed is a Former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP
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