Solution for Rohingya Crisis Falls in Trap of Trilateral Geopolitics

 (Part I)

Since August 25, 2017, the Myanmar army started killing, raping, arson, and looting the Rohingya community in Rakhine. According to the Rohingya victims, local mobs were joined with the crackdown of military juntas  and more than 700,000 Rohingyas have taken shelter as refuges in Bangladesh in this incident. In total, more than 1.1 million Rohingyas are now staying in 34 refugee camps at Teknaf and Ukhia in Cox’s Bazar. Oppressed Rohingyas say that the Myanmar army forced them to come to Bangladesh by indiscriminately killing, raping and burning their houses.

Six years into the Rohingya crisis, there is no visible progress in repatriation due to trilateral geopolitical interests. As the prospect of a durable solution to the Rohingya crisis fades, many refugees say they are looking to the future with hope. Many of these desperate refugees are lured by human traffickers to embark on dangerous voyages in unsafe boats. On the other hand, the Bangladesh government has repeatedly said that the Rohingya crisis has gradually raised the environmental, economic, social and security concerns of Bangladesh. The ongoing Rohingya crisis is a major tragedy for all concerned. No one in the world wants to live in a refugee camp voluntarily. No one wants to give shelter to many displaced people together, Bangladesh has shown magnanimity by sheltering them.

The military junta has the tacit support of India and China, two of its biggest neighbors and one of Asia's two superpowers. Myanmar is also very important to Russia from geopolitical aspects. Since the launch of China's new global geostrategic plan 'Belt and Road Initiative' in 2013, Myanmar's Rakhine (Arakan) region on the Bay of Bengal has become one of the world's strategic lands. Basically, the huge investments and geopolitical interests of China, India and Russia are the main bars to resolving the Rohingya crisis and are prolonging this problem and pushing it towards an uncertain future.
First, China has huge investments in Myanmar. According to a report published by the country, it amounted to $18 billion, which is more than double the total investment of all Western countries. However, China's total investment in Myanmar is highly secretive for strategic reasons. Just the construction of the gas pipeline from the 'Shaye' gas field in the troubled Rakhine city of Sittwe (from Shaye to Kunming in China's Gongjeh province) and investment in its security (building military quarters and paramilitary camps) cost $2.5 billion. Whose overall responsibility is the army chief of Myanmar himself! According to the news published in various media, in total, China has taken a project to invest $18 billion in Rakhine only.

In recent times, one of the most hostile countries of China is its neighbor India. India also has a land border with Myanmar. Reducing India's influence in Myanmar and strategically encircling India is one of China's military policies and strategies to keep Myanmar in its hands at any cost. In addition, China's fuel oil terminal is being built at the Akyab seaport in Rakhine, whose real purpose is to reduce dependence on the Strait of Malacca for oil imports and to assert its military presence by challenging the sole dominance of the United States (USA) and India in the Indian Ocean. In this case, China definitely wants to put a gun on Myanmar's shoulder to save its own interests.

It is no secret to the world that China has been almost the sole supplier of all types of weapons to Myanmar's military for four decades of blockade, i.e, China-made weapons are the main strength of Myanmar's defense sector. China owns 90 percent of the country's military market. According to a research article by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a research institute based in Sweden on arms production, purchase and sale, arms technology, etc., from 1988 to 2006, Myanmar bought $1.69 billion worth of arms and military equipment from China alone. Therefore, China does not want to lose such a large arms market.

Meanwhile, China has been accused of providing financial and arms support to freedom fighters in some states and areas including the Kachin, San, Kokang regions of Mirmar bordering its borders. China has resorted to this two-pronged strategy to keep Myanmar in its hands. Therefore, just as it is not possible for Myanmar to bypass China for its own security, China is always shadowing Myanmar for its economic and political interests.

Due to geo-political interests, India, Bangladesh's best friend, has also taken sides in Myanmar's genocide. In fact, in terms of suppressing the Indian independence movement, corridor facilities, transit, transshipment, etc., benefits have been obtained from Bangladesh, but the 1,643-kilometer long border of Myanmar is to suppress the rebellion of the three states of India, Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram, which are agitating for the independence of India and here special support of Myanmar is required. If India stands by Bangladesh instead of supporting Myanmar on the Rohingya issue, it will be difficult to suppress the movement of these three states.

The Siliguri Corridor, known as the 'Chicken Neck', is the only land route for the transportation of goods, military equipment and road communication in the 'Seven Sisters', the seven freedom-moving states in the north-eastern region of India. This corridor, which is only 18 km long, is strategically very important for India, as China will try desperately to capture or close this corridor in case of a Sino-Indian war. In that case, if India cannot use transit of goods through Bangladesh, then it is not unusual to lose control in the Seven Sisters. So, as an alternative, India has taken up a plan to build a long 'multimodal' link from Rakhine's capital Sittwe through Mizoram in northeastern India using the Kaladan River through Myanmar, called the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project. India has already released $500 million in this project undertaken to counter the threat to integral India and sovereignty. In this project, it will be possible to directly reach the Seven Sisters of India through the Sittwe port for various products from the Haldia port in Kolkata.

India has also moved forward with a project to create a Special Economic Zone near Sittwe to get closer to Myanmar through economic diplomacy. Since the Rohingya-populated northern Rakhine along the Indian border is very important to India, any unrest in the region in the future could spell trouble for India. So India stands by Myanmar for strategic reasons to deal with possible chaos. Meanwhile, Indian policy makers also think that China is encircling India. Therefore, India is sticking to ginger-water to reduce China's influence in Myanmar for security and military strategic reasons. As part of this effort, the work of establishing India-Myanmar-Thailand communication has already started under the 'Act East Project' of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Apart from this, India is also looking for a market for some armaments. In search of that market, important people like the Indian Prime Minister, Chief of Army and Navy are visiting Myanmar at different times and the two countries have signed several military cooperation agreements. Earlier, India sold arms to Myanmar for the first time in 2005, according to a study by the SIPRI. However, in the face of sanctions by the USA and the European Union, India's trade relations with several countries and organizations are threatened when the information about India's arms sales to Myanmar becomes known. India eventually conceded, not arms sales, that they were bound by a defense pact to fight insurgents along the Indo-Myanmar common border.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was weakened not only economically but also in international politics. But Russia has moved toward Myanmar as part of an effort to return the country to Soviet-era power after Vladimir Putin took over. 

When the international blockade on Myanmar was lifted in 2015, Russia took the initiative to invest and sell weapons in the country. In the same year, Russia put a share in the arms market of Myanmar, under the sole control of China for 30 years. Myanmar is focusing on Russian weapons for various reasons such as modernization of the military, enrichment of new technology and generation of weapons and increasing the capabilities of the air force and getting help of the air force in suppressing independence movement.

To modernize the military, the country has purchased MiG-29 fighter jets, long-range missiles, gunships, helicopters, gun systems, anti-tanks, etc. from Russia. Besides, several other military procurement agreements have already been signed. MiG Company has also opened an office in the country to maintain Russia's top position in aircraft sales in Myanmar. According to the research paper of the SIPRI, from 1988 to 2006, Myanmar has sold at least $39.60 million worth of arms from Russia alone. In terms of money, Russia is the second largest arms exporter to Myanmar. Russia has become desperate to monopolize this position.

Russia has not only focused on Myanmar's arms market, but also on financial aid (investment) and technology exports. In return, Russia signed an agreement to build two nuclear power plants in Myanmar in 2013, which has already begun work. In addition, Russia has already invested heavily in Myanmar to extract the country's vast mineral resources (especially oil and gas). Gazprom, a Russian state-owned company, has also opened an office in the capital, Yangon, to dominate the profits of Myanmar's oil and gas reserves.


Md. Zillur Rahaman is a
banker and a columnist.