Trump’s Return and Implications for Pakistan

 

There have been interesting and mixed reactions in the Pakistan polity and its security establishment in the aftermath of the US electoral verdict returning Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. In the not so distant past, Pakistan’s relations with the US have been of unease and uncertainty. US has always been perceiving Pakistan with suspicion chiefly  for the latter’s close ties with China which has been an eyesore for the US and this element will once again be crucial as Trump with his mercurial unpredictability notwithstanding, is not expected to be soft on Pakistan as perhaps his other Republican predecessors have been.

To further dwell upon the subject in a historical perspective, it is not out of context to reiterate that the then President Richard Nixon’s all out support to Pakistan in its military aggression against India leading to dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. Nixon, thought to be blindly led by Henry Kissinger’s recommendation, and even went to the extent of dispatching the US Navy’s Seventh fleet, flexing its muscles, in a belligerent show of ‘might’ to intimidate India. However, that did not work and India had its way. We see that the US has generally been supportive of Pakistan in terms of financial  aid, military  assistance arming with lethal hardware and all kind of other miscellaneous help. This has always emboldened Pakistan and history is witness to the fact that despite caution and preconditions attached, Pakistan blatantly used the US supplied arms against India in successive wars notably in the 1965 war when US Patton tanks were decimated by the Indian armed forces.

Reverting to Trump’s victory and fall out for Pakistan, we must remember that this time Trump’s relations with India is full of warmth and carries a renewed bonhomie. This is mainly due to the fact that Prime Minister Modi and President elect Donald Trump enjoy an extraordinary chemistry and an amazing personal equation. This was also present during  Trump’s previous term but this time it looks more reinforced and that has chances to see that Trump is not too soft on Pakistan.

Also, Trump administration is expected to exert more pressure on Pakistan to rein in the home-grown terror affiliates particularly those engaged in transnational acts of terror. Pakistan, in all likelihood, will face the heat of it. If such pressure is maintained, then Pakistan might have to slow down its covert operations targeting India on its cross-border assaults of terror specially in Kashmir which saw a surge in recent times. It is also likely that the new Trump administration may monitor the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proceedings to see that terror financing in Pakistan remains under check.

On its part, Pakistan will try albeit feebly to prevail upon Trump to intervene with India in an attempt to ‘resolve’ the Kashmir problem. However, it remains to be seen if Trump at all attacks his priority on this sensitive issue.

Meanwhile, some Geopolitical experts in Pakistan reckon that Trump will most likely continue with the Joe Biden policy of low intensity engagement with Islamabad, marked neither by significant aid levels nor by sanctions. They further assess that under Trump, the relationship between US and Pakistan will be handled by the State Department and Pentagon. Trump’s approach will focus on what a state has to offer the US.

Further, US would like to limit China’s political and economic influence in Pakistan and it would seem that under Trump, US would want Islamabad not to undermine the centrality of India to its Indo-Pacific strategy. Regarding Afghanistan, its stability remains fundamental to the wider regional security including that of Pakistan.In the meantime, a bunch of security advisers in and on Pakistan feel that the country has to ensure that its ties with the US are handled through quiet diplomacy, particularly if they involve public interest linked issues.

It must be stated that Pakistan’s foreign policy perhaps is not the best at these times. US angst against Pakistan was more than visible from the last phase of Imran Khan’s Premiership ultimately leading to his unceremonious ouster. Islamabad Foreign Office, therefore, has to reorient its policy towards the US under Trump. A seasoned Pakistan Ambassador is perhaps a good beginning to be placed in Washington DC to handle the State Department with professional dexterity requiring deft dealing. As of now, it doesn’t seem promising.  The challenge, therefore, appears huge and to keep Trump and his hawks on the right side and in good humour, is indeed a tough task at hand. The current fragile political dispensation in Pakistan and a politicized army have to work overtime to be on the same page with Trump or else the consequences are likely to be unfavorable to Pakistan.


Shantanu Mukharji is a retired
IPS officer and former National
Security Advisor in Mauritius.