Leveraging India–Pakistan Tensions: Strategic Opportunities for Bangladesh

 

Since 1947, tensions between Pakistan and India have been ongoing. The implications of which have always affected their neighbouring countries. Historically, India and Pakistan have been the frontline contenders who have fought against each other not only physically but also morally in recent years. After the Kargil wars, recent escalations between these two countries have haunted their neighbouring states the most. The South Asian regional stability deeply depends on these two countries. Whereas, Bangladesh is the key stakeholder of these pinpoint equations of geo-strategic conflicts. Bangladesh can not escape from these two countries because of its historical attachment. However, this is the high time. Bangladesh can now take its geo-strategic advantage from them.

The continuing issues between Pakistan and India, including a sudden war between these two countries, suspension of the Indus water sharing treaty for an uncertain period, and the Asia Cup trophy handover dilemma, make the political environment of South Asia volatile. India had launched missile strikes named Operation Sindoor on 7 May, targeting nine sites in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab, which India described as terrorist infrastructure linked to groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), who were supposed to be involved with the terrorist attacks on 22nd April in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 26 civilian lives. Though the war had stopped with the intervention of Donald Trump, president of the United States of America on 10th May 2025, the heat still warms the whole South Asian political culture. But India’s suspension of the Indus water sharing treaty deepens the dilemma. In recent times, India beat Pakistan in the Asia Cup final, but players didn’t shake hands; rather, they engaged in not only verbal outbursts off the ground but also rebuked each other during the match. India refused to take the Trophy from Asian Cricket Council president Mr Naqvi, who is a citizen of Pakistan.   The trophy has not been received yet, which triggers the diplomatic turmoil between the two giants.

Pakistan is wavering now through multiple difficulties. As they are in a two war with their two close neighbours. The clash with Afghanistan affects them more. Facing war is always costlier than maintaining a balance of War. As a volatile economy of Pakistan, it can not afford a single war, but is facing two wars against two neighbours. Whereas the internal political environment of Pakistan is violent, transient and dysfunctional.  Even excessive dependency on China and the USA is detrimental to Pakistan.

Now with this tricky situation, Bangladesh can get some strategic advantage from Pakistan.  By signing a mutual security pact with Pakistan, Bangladesh can deter potential threats from India. This partnership would strengthen regional security and strategic balance. Shared history, religion, and traditions can strengthen mutual understanding and promote cultural exchange between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Enhanced trade ties can boost exports, attract investment, and support economic growth in both countries. These factors can help deepen bilateral ties and promote regional cooperation. In the case of India, they are currently facing several challenges on the regional front. Diplomatic tensions with Bangladesh have created friction over issues such as border management, water sharing, and ethnic minorities. At the same time, India continues to deal with military and security concerns along its border with China, especially in disputed territories. Moreover, persistent hostility and occasional conflicts with Pakistan further strain India’s security environment and regional stability. Leveraging its strategic position vis-à-vis India, Bangladesh can press for the resolution of the unresolved Teesta water agreement by subtly capitalizing on Beijing and Islamabad’s growing alignment with New Delhi’s geopolitical concerns. By emphasizing its role as the principal geographic steward of the “Seven Sisters” and cooperating on cross-border security, Dhaka can convert perceived vulnerabilities into bargaining leverage—securing border stability, strengthening surveillance and joint patrols in frontier districts, and ensuring that the Chittagong Hill Tracts remain peaceful and free from externally instigated unrest. Earlier, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reportedly said, ‘We will always stand like an elder brother over Bangladesh.’ Keeping that remark in mind, Dhaka could prudently convert perceived goodwill into a strategic advantage vis-à-vis New Delhi.

However, amid the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, Bangladesh can benefit the most through regional cooperation with China. Such an understanding could enable timely initiatives such as infrastructural development, an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), the resolution of the Rohingya refugee crisis, and the implementation of the Teesta Mega Project. So, the present interim government of Bangladesh needs to keep an eye on the geopolitical confrontation of Indo-Pak rivalry in South Asian politics carefully.

 
Md. Al-Amin writes on diplomacy,
foreign policy, border conflicts
and security issues.