Legitimacy on The Line: The Political Cost of Exclusion in Bangladesh

 

Bangladesh will hold its next parliamentary election on February 12, 2026. After the violent overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government during last summer’s Monsoon Revolution, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical political and economic crossroads. Will the upcoming election mark a turning point for democracy in Bangladesh, or will it lead to increased political instability? This paper will examine Bangladesh’s current political climate and analyze factors leading up to Election 2026.

Bangladesh’s upcoming general election is just days away. Scheduled for February 12, voters will decide the future of the caretaker government and choose members for a new parliament. However, unlike previous elections, the BNP will run unopposed because the ruling Awami League (AL) has been systematically excluded from the country's political process. Officially deregistered by the Election Commission after Sheikh Hasina fled the country in August 2024, the party has seen many of its leaders arrested or leave the country. Additionally, political persecution and fear-mongering over reactionary violence have weakened what remains of AL’s grassroots network. Although the absence of AL is a deliberate decision by its leadership, the question remains whether this election can be considered free, fair, and democratic when the playing field is not level for all political parties.

A political vacuum has emerged, enabling de facto opposition leader Tarique Rahman to return to the country in December and nearly secure his party’s election victory. While welcoming the return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leadership, many question whether this election will simply replace one dominant party with another. The current caretaker government has shown little interest in political inclusion, often preventing former AL leaders from organizing and sometimes allowing or even supporting street-level attacks on former AL activists to go unpunished. International partners are observing the shifting political landscape in Dhaka, with increasing calls for a free, fair, and inclusive election. From Washington to Brussels, officials publicly support elections in Bangladesh but stress the need to include all parties and stakeholders. Last month, the UN Secretary-General’s office announced it would not send an electoral observer mission to Bangladesh due to concerns about transparency. Meanwhile, New Delhi has quietly warned Dhaka that political exclusion will not go unnoticed by neighboring countries. But is it already too late?

Bangladesh has faced significant challenges with its democratic process. Many reforms have been implemented to ensure free and fair elections, but issues persist. Bangladeshis deserve more than another cycle of electioneering. An election should determine who has the legitimacy and mandate to govern. But how can a party lose its right to participate in elections and suddenly grant that right to the opposition? The current government has no business holding an election where one of the country’s two major political parties cannot campaign on equal footing with its opponents. The caretaker government, chosen by the BNP, was tasked with guiding the country through this political transition. By design, it will favor the party that installed it. That’s not democracy. That’s manipulating the process.

Economically, Bangladesh faces significant challenges. With rising inflation, decreasing foreign reserves, and the public experiencing the effects of over eight years of AL mismanagement, political instability is unlikely to improve the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis. Credit rating agencies might react negatively to a BNP victory, potentially raising borrowing costs and reducing domestic investment. The government will struggle to reverse labor reforms, privatizations, and other pro-market policies introduced over the past decade or more. Large segments of the population could oppose these policies and vote for parties committed to restoring earlier approaches when given the chance. Equally important, ongoing political uncertainty will further strain Bangladesh’s relations with multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, both of which have tied their support for the next government to continued reforms and good governance.

When given the chance to exercise their democratic right to vote, Bangladeshis have consistently punished the incumbent party at the polls. But what if that isn’t an option? What if millions of Bangladeshis who feel loyal to AL are left without a voice because of decisions made by party leaders? It’s a recipe for disaster. Already, local NGOs have raised concerns about a shift toward authoritarianism in Bangladesh. Numerous politically motivated arrests, convictions, and disappearances have occurred since last year. Newspaper offices have been raided, and editors jailed for publishing stories critical of the CTG. It’s well known that AL strongholds in the countryside have been especially affected. Continued political persecution of AL supporters will only lead to more instability and a higher risk of political violence in the future.

Stakeholders across the political spectrum - along with civil society and international partners -must demand free, fair, and inclusive elections. Anything less would betray the hopes of the Bangladeshi people, who deserve not only the right to vote but also the right to be heard.


Dr. Mohammed A Rab writes on 
contemporary issues. He is 
based in the USA.