Could missing Chinese foreign minister's fate be known soon?

One month after Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, 57, abruptly disappeared from the public eye, the government has continued to be tight-lipped on his whereabouts, saying on Monday only that China's diplomatic activities are "steadily moving forward".

But on the same day, Chinese state media also announced that the country's top legislature will meet on Tuesday to review "a decision on official appointment and removal".This is somewhat unusual given that it typically meets every other month, and had just convened in June. It can, however, hold interim meetings in case of special needs.

Questions have persisted over the fate of China's main envoy, who has missed a string of diplomatic meetings while his colleagues took his place.

So far, the only reason the Chinese foreign ministry has offered is that Mr Qin had to miss a recent Asean meeting because of health reasons.

But with his unprecedented month-long absence and the government's refusal to say more, speculation that he might have flouted party rules has quickly gained momentum. While the foreign ministry has maintained that it is business as usual for the country's diplomatic affairs, at least two meetings had been postponed because Mr Qin was unable to attend, raising questions over whether China's foreign relations at a time when it is on a campaign to win friends or mend fences could be hit.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly was said to have deferred a planned trip to Beijing this month to meet Mr Qin, Bloomberg reported last Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The visit was an effort by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to get ties strained over China's clampdown on Hong Kong and the Ukraine war back to normal.

The European Union's foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell also abruptly cancelled his scheduled trip to the Chinese capital city on July 10 after being told by Chinese officials they could not host him at that time.

The burden of Mr Qin's portfolio has fallen largely on former foreign minister Wang Yi and current first-ranked Vice-Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, who is the most likely man to succeed Mr Qin if he is no longer able to serve.

Last Thursday, Mr Ma attended an extraordinary meeting of Brics foreign ministers via video link, the second time he has stepped in for Mr Qin since early June for this economic grouping.

Mr Qin had been expected to meet his Brics counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa on June 1 in Cape Town, but Mr Ma later went in his place.

As executive vice-minister, Mr Ma, 59, is ranked a full minister and trails just behind Mr Qin at the foreign ministry, a position he was promoted to in January this year.

He was said to have also been vying for both the job of ambassador to the United States and later foreign minister - both of which went to Mr Qin.
Mr Qin was also noticeably absent on July 18, when President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who was on a state visit to China.

With China's recent flurry of diplomatic activities, the Foreign Minister has missed sitting in on at least seven meetings that President Xi has had with visiting foreign dignitaries, leaving Mr Wang, who was promoted to head the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party early this year, to go it alone.

While the foreign ministry seems to be functioning as usual given Mr Wang and Mr Ma's contributions, China's diplomatic image has been tarnished, given that the ministry's spokesmen "claim not to know about their own superior's well-being or whereabouts", said Dr James Char, a China scholar at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

"The longer this drags on, the more damage it will cause to the credibility of the foreign ministry's regular press conferences and their spokespersons."
China, too, could suffer some reputational cost if Mr Qin is found to be guilty of certain misdemeanour, especially given his importance in representing Beijing on the global stage, said Dr Char.

But that could be just a temporary and minor hit.

China's foreign policy or strategy will not be swayed by any specific personnel change as it was determined at last year's party congress, said Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute.

The twice-a-decade conclave sets the country's priorities for the next five years, and also refreshes the leadership ranks.
Having set the agenda for China's foreign policy during the congress, President Xi will ensure that continuity is maintained, even if Mr Qin, who was handpicked by Mr Xi for the job, is no longer available.

"Personal relationships and face-to-face diplomacy between individual leaders matter a lot, but China has many experienced diplomats who can fill in for Qin's absence," said Dr Austin Strange, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Hong Kong.

"The episode is also a reminder of how little outside observers know about the workings of Chinese elite politics, which are, of course, not known for their public accessibility. So while rampant speculation will not help China's global image, it probably will not significantly damage it, either."

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