Is Future Remittance Sustainable Without Skilled Migration?

Remittance has long been a reliable pillar of the Bangladesh economy. Its contribution is evident in stabilizing foreign exchange reserves, keeping rural consumption active, and reducing poverty. However, a fundamental question has now surfaced: Is it possible to keep future remittances sustainable by maintaining the current migration structure?

According to World Bank data, annual remittance inflow to Bangladesh has been hovering around 22–23 billion USD in recent years. While this figure is large, its structural fragility cannot be ignored. A major portion of the total expatriate workers is still employed in low-skill or semi-skill categories. In the international labor market, wages for such jobs are relatively low, sensitive to automation and recession, and are the first to face risks due to policy changes. Consequently, even though the number of workers increases, the average remittance growth per worker is stagnating—which is a warning signal for the long term.

On the other hand, the transformation of the global labor market is rapid. Various reports from the ILO and World Economic Forum show that over the next decade, the demand for skilled and high-skilled labor will significantly increase in sectors such as healthcare, the care economy, IT and digital services, green technology, advanced manufacturing, and aging-society-support services. Where a skilled worker in these sectors earns two to four times more monthly compared to low-skilled work, their sent remittance is also proportionately higher and more stable. In other words, the skill profile, not the number of workers, is the true determinant of future remittance.

This is where Bangladesh’s strategic gap becomes clear. We are still dependent on "volume-driven migration"—meaning, sending more people is seen as the indicator of success. In contrast, countries like the Philippines or Vietnam have emphasized "value-driven migration". As a result, they are earning more remittance per worker by sending fewer people, while simultaneously improving the quality and social security of expatriate income. For Bangladesh, if skill development does not become the centerpiece of migration policy, we will fall behind in global competition and remittance inflow will come under pressure.

Another important dimension is the cost-to-return ratio. Government and private research shows that compared to the costs a low-skilled worker incurs to go abroad, the actual savings and remittance returns in the first few years often remain limited. Conversely, while initial training costs are relatively higher for a skilled worker, the consistency of income and return is significantly higher in the long run. In economic terms, skilled migration is a high Return-on-Investment (ROI) model—which increases both the quality and stability of foreign exchange earnings at the national level.

Therefore, it is essential to change our perspective at the policy level. Migration should not be viewed merely as the export of employment; it must be seen as a strategy for human resource development. Unless there is international-standard skill certification, targeted country-specific training, language and soft skill development, and institutional linkages with foreign employers, the talk of skilled migration will remain only on paper. At the same time, if proper investment channels for expatriate income are not created, the macro-economic impact of remittance will remain limited.

Another issue that is often kept irrelevant but is extremely important is the demographic transition. Many countries in the Middle East and Europe are rapidly becoming aging societies. This means the future labor market will not just depend on physical labor; rather, the demand for skills related to caregiving, nursing, paramedical services, rehabilitation, geriatric support, and digital health will increase manifold. Demand for skilled and certified workers in these sectors is long-term and relatively recession-resistant. If Bangladesh does not create a skill-mapping and training strategy right now, keeping this demographic reality in mind, there will be a risk of missing a major global opportunity in the next decade, which will directly impact remittance flows.

At the same time, skilled migration is not just a question of foreign exchange earnings—it also creates opportunities for 'brain circulation'. The knowledge, technology, and professional networks that skilled workers acquire while working abroad can play a vital role in creating entrepreneurs, innovation, and local industry upgradation upon their return. Many developing countries are using this brain circulation as a strategic asset. But in Bangladesh, migration policy is still largely tilted toward short-term income, and the structure for long-term knowledge transfer or return migration is weak. If reforms are not made in this area, we may receive remittances, but we will lose the opportunity for sustainable economic transformation.

Finally, the question arises again—is future remittance sustainable without skilled migration? Data, global trends, and comparative experiences collectively say: no, it is not sustainable. Moving away from the obsession with quantity, qualitative transformation is now the only realistic path. Skilled migration is not just a strategy to increase remittance; it is a long-term investment to strengthen Bangladesh's position in the global economy. The faster and more planned this investment is made, the more stable and prestigious future remittance will be.

Writer : Sakif Shamim, FLMI (Economist),Managing Director, Labaid Cancer Hospital and Super Speciality Centre,Deputy Managing Director, Labaid Group