Pakistan steps up efforts toward a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and Russia joins negotiations to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Gaza destiny may await Lebanon amid continued Israeli attacks. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is looking to intensify the negotiation process between the United States and Iran as he is trying to secure support from all players in close vicinity to Iran which are interested in peace. Sharif has departed for a tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. According to a statement from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will host bilateral talks involving the Pakistani PM, and in Turkey he will attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on the sidelines of which he will hold a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexey Portansky, Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, noted: "There is a hope that talks will yield results. Experts have to take the unpredictability of the US side into account.
Many representatives of the American elite acknowledge that [US President Donald] Trump is a little crazy. And yet there is a chance of success." Commenting on why Pakistan is playing the role of a mediator, the expert explained that the country takes an even-handed approach toward the conflicting sides and that it suits both Tehran and Washington.
Asked if China, a patron and almost an ally of Pakistan that is not directly involved in the US-Iranian talks, could influence them with Pakistan's mediation, Alexander Lomanov, deputy head of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta: "China can help only those countries which are willing to negotiate. And there are no tools for putting military or economic pressure on any party that China could officially use. Of course, China has investments in Iran and it could help rebuild those sectors of the economy which were destroyed by the Americans if there is peace. However, Beijing cannot pressure the US into treating Iran more gently. I am afraid if Washington is tough on Iran, blocking Iranian hydrocarbon exports to China, Trump's visit to China, scheduled for May, may as well be cancelled."
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Indian reporter Vinay Shukla said: "Firstly, Pakistan is a neighbor of Iran. Secondly, Trump has a long-standing close relationship with [Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan] Asim Munir. Moreover, the Pakistani embassy represented Tehran's interests in Washington after the Islamic revolution in Iran when Tehran and Washington severed ties. And thirdly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a visit to Israel a couple of days ahead of the Israeli bombing of Iran. So, it would have been hard for India to claim to act as a mediator."
Russia has joined the debate about the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. Also, work on a joint Russian-Chinese draft UN Security Council resolution on the Iranian issue is underway. However, the senior Russian diplomat said further steps on that document will depend on talks between Tehran and Washington that may resume in the next 24 hours.
The situation in the region has already caused major logistical disruptions, with the crews of multiple vessels refusing to enter the waterway amid threats. Against this backdrop, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has set up a task force to facilitate transit, an idea that has been questioned by diplomats. "This initiative includes creating certain structures by the UN Secretariat. It is difficult for me to judge if Gulf countries and Iran support the initiative," Alimov said. "Our joint draft resolution with China is on the negotiating table at the UN, we have officially endorsed it. We are monitoring the overall progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States which have already held one round of talks. Hopefully the negotiations are not over and will continue," the diplomat explained.
Meanwhile, Iran has linked the prospects of talks with the US to the situation in Lebanon. Tehran views continued Israeli strikes as a factor that undermines confidence in diplomatic efforts. "Talks between Iran and the United States are key: if they are successful, this will have a positive impact on the situation in Lebanon," Jamal Wakim, a professor at Lebanese University, noted.
Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti that Iran and the United States have been cautious ahead of a new round of talks. On Wednesday afternoon, the AP reported, citing sources, that Iran and the US have agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire, even as Trump said in public that he sees no need for an extension of the truce with Iran, according to ABC journalist Jonathan Karl. "The blockade itself is an act of war, and things can be escalated very fast," Lyamin argued.
A combination of the US blockade of Iranian oil exports and Iranian moves to let only friendly vessels pass could come next, director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy of the Higher School of Economics Prokhor Tebin told Vedomosti. "But that situation would be bad for both Iran and the United States as it would not solve their problems in the short term. And it would be bad for the world economy, too. To achieve its objectives, the US would need to reopen the strait for everybody and block access to the sea for Iran," Tebin said. According to him, the war could continue as, judging from the deployment of another aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, a group for serious operations is currently in the making.
>>TASS
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