Published: 02:36 PM, 17 October 2026
Why Central Asia should rely on India over China
The world is entering a post-unipolar era, where sturdy bilateral trade and diplomatic ties are becoming increasingly indispensable amid growing geopolitical uncertainties. Nations are actively making choices to forge, resuscitate, or strengthen ties with the major emerging centres of power. The decision to forge or strengthen ties with the emerging powers is determined by various factors, including but not limited to geographical proximity, historical ties, current diplomatic requirements, and trade opportunities.
A similar situation has arisen in Central Asia. With the weakening dominance of Russia in the region, it has become an important arena for forging strategic ties for other regional powers, namely India and China. In the post-Moscow era, marked by the reduced influence of Russia in the region due to its weakening involvement in meeting regional investment, infrastructure, and security needs, the Central Asian nations are diversifying their strategic ties by building closer relations with China and India.
China has been a seasoned regional player as an infrastructure supplier, leveraging infrastructural initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for strategic ties, along with investments in transport, regional energy reserves, and digital infrastructure. On the other hand, India’s engagement has been driven by an issue-based development approach, often envisaged via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port, which are crucial to its Connect Central Asia policy, along with promoting thematic partnerships on rare earth metals and digital partnerships.
Given the involvement of the two emerging powers in the region, while adopting a multi-vector diplomacy, there are several compelling reasons for why Central Asian Republics (CARs) should tilt towards New Delhi on the trade and commerce front. First, the geostrategic and security concerns with respect to China’s BRI have made the region especially fertile for Indian engagement. Post 2015, India has viewed CAR as a single geographical unit for facilitating cooperation. Since then, multiple deals have been signed between India and CARs on a variety of issues, including security, energy, trade, and culture. As mentioned earlier, this rejuvenation of ties is also determined by the historicity of traditional and socioeconomic ties between the two.
Second, there exists anti-China sentiment and deep scepticism amongst the CARs for a variety of reasons. Central Asians are sceptical of Chinese investments, as these investments are considered risky and a threat to sovereignty. Besides, the Chinese treatment of ethnic minorities like the Uyghurs, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz has fuelled public angst. Chinese tendencies are often seen as expansionist, based on historical experiences. This is where the narrative of deep, friendly historical ties with India, and its influence as a soft cultural power, pitches in. India’s trade model with CARs focuses on sustainable infrastructure, low-interest lines of credit, and transparent frameworks. This eliminates the fears of debt-trap diplomacy. As a result, the CARs should build economic capabilities with India, as such engagement doesn’t risk their national sovereignty and ensures growth based on mutual respect.
Third, India is in the process of finalising the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Once signed, India will have direct access to the region’s huge hydrocarbon resources as well as open doors to the Eurasian markets. India also acts as a strong trade partner for Central Asia as it operates through a cooperative, non-exploitative model focused on affordable goods, digital growth, and strategic balance rather than overwhelming debt or economic dominance. Given that CARs heavily depend on Beijing for energy exports, this creates asymmetric leverage. Here, New Delhi acts as a critical diversification outlet through projects like the Chabahar Port and the INSTC; the CARs gain direct maritime access to the Indian Ocean and global markets, bypassing restrictive land routes.
India, with its booming pharmaceutical sector, also provides high-quality, affordable generic medicines and healthcare infrastructure, directly lowering public health expenditures across CARs. Moreover, going beyond the focus on resource extraction, India has been partnering with Central Asia through the Digital Partnership Forum, IT training, higher education scholarships, and healthcare cooperation.
Given the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and participation in the SCO Summit, the Connect Central Asia policy is being complemented by closer government-to-government ties and purposeful actions to translate policies into practice.
India and Central Asian nations have also been collaborating on safe, secure, and trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, building on frameworks established during events like the India AI Impact Summit. Though the trade between the two is around $2 billion, it leaves a vast room for growth through improved connectivity and sector diversification. There exists immense scope for trade between the two in trade in mineral fuels like oil, natural gas, and key minerals like aluminium and uranium (like long-term uranium supplies from Uzbekistan), along with cooperation extending to renewable electricity and hydropower production. This is accompanied by the possibility to expand trade in traditional sectors like agricultural trade, agribusiness, and food production. New Delhi has already signed the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA) with three of the five CARs (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), to stimulate defence cooperation and strengthen the trade ties.
Central Asia’s growing collaboration with India is bound to bring a collaborative growth framework, bolstered by historical ties and respect for sovereignty. On the trade front, India offers CARs a high-value partnership focused on sustainable economic development, tech transfer, and vital trade diversification. This is in contrast to China’s resource-extractive model, where the region is treated as a source for raw materials and a market for cheap manufactured goods. India stands to fill a crucial developmental gap through the supply of world-class pharmaceuticals, technical expertise, and digital infrastructure like digital payment systems, along with trade infrastructure via the INSTC and Chabahar Port, to provide the economies access to global markets. In the post-Russia CARs, West Asia should strengthen its ties with India as it is a reliable trade partner; Strong ties with New Delhi prevent CARs excessive economic dependency on Beijing while ensuring that commerce with India builds local capacities and safeguards CARs’ economic sovereignty.
Written By: Sun Lee (The author is a pseudonym for a writer who covers Asia and geopolitical affairs.)
>> Source: mizzima
