Published: 12:00 AM, 29 June 2016
The sour grapes of NSG
I often wonder whether Bangladesh will ever be or aspire to be a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). NSG is an elite club of 48 countries that control the trading of nuclear technology and materials, and prevent the manufacture and use of nukes. If any country, for example, wants to buy or sell uranium or plutonium, it must be approved by NSG. The organization has a provision that if anyone wants to enter NSG, there must be a consensus of all the 48 members. The provision sounds too tight, and too democratic to allow new entry. Instead, the provision of majority (even two-third) could be more logical. It is practically difficult, if not impossible, for such a large entity to reach a full consensus on any issue. Members may have differing opinions and only one dissent will jeopardize any agenda on the table. Therefore I doubt Bangladesh or any other humble country, however honest and good-intentioned, will get a ticket to NSG.
Recently India has had a sour taste of it. It wanted to be the 49th member of NSG but it failed. In the 26th plenary of NSG in Seoul of South Korea on 23-24 June 2016, the application was reportedly supported by 38 countries but opposed by the rest. China was the strongest opponent, followed by Turkey, Ireland, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand and Switzerland. Despite backing of the heavyweights like the US, Russia, Britain, Canada, France, Japan, Germany and host South Korea, the case could not stand. India's drastic diplomatic efforts to convince others prior to the meeting just fell flat. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar had to eat humble pie. Nothing was more frustrating for India when China, after so many high profile requests, stuck to the idea that India must sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before finding an open door, though most of the members were ready to make an exception for India. China also claimed that if India's application is entertained, its rival Pakistan must also be treated equally. Visibly China snubbed India that cried for a 'fair and objective assessment' of its candidature. Indian dream-flight dashed into the Great Wall! Rosy smile blooms now in the lips of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
India lost the game of regional geopolitics. China, the mightiest nation of Asia, does not want any other neighbors to rise to its height. It apprehends that with an access to NSG, India will dominate the international nuclear energy market. As India's economy is getting robust, along with its burgeoning military and diplomatic powers, it has been a matter of headache for China. That India has recently strengthened its bilateral ties with the US has also angered China. The US and India have signed a nuclear energy deal and they have conducted joint military exercises in recent years. On the other hand, the relationship between the US and Pakistan has hit the record low since the latter failed to curb terrorism as expected by the former. This in turn pushed China and Pakistan into a firmer embrace. Recently the US and China had a bickering over the ship movement in the South China Sea, which China claims to be its own territory, disagreed by the US. China did not care about the US's leniency for India so much as it cared for Pakistan's interest. Pakistan has been China's strategic partner for about half a century while China has uneasy relationships with other neighboring countries like Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia, apart from India. China vehemently objected to India's NSG entry not only for its own benefit but also to appease its bosom friend.
It seems that India will not get any easy breakthrough so long as China is there. Forty eight members can hardly sing in a single voice. How will India act in the light of new reality and realization? The Seoul fiasco has left an acutely bitter taste on its tongue. It may drive India desperate. But, for sure, it is not going to sign NPT or CTBT to obviate the obstacle. Patiently it will explore other channels. India may enhance diplomatic efforts to convince China that they are not enemies. Their mutual cooperation may help maintain regional security and stability. Once a member of NSG, India may play a significant role in combating proliferation of nuclear weapons and ensure peaceful use of nuclear energy. As the economy of India is growing steadily, it has to meet huge demand of electricity, in which nuclear reactor can be of great help.
Together they may build a better future for the world. If India and China can collaborate in World Trade Organization (WTO), why can't they do so in NSG? After NSG hitch, however, India is set to become a member of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an international body that works for preventing the proliferation of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology. Earlier China attempted to enter MTCR but its dubious record of nuclear dealing got in the way. Now India can help China in entering the regime if China only reciprocates with a positive gesture. China has big business ventures in India and the trade balance is much in favor of the dragon. It can even gain further with doing India a little favor in the coveted international forum. But China is a hard nut to crack. It is easier to move the Himalayas than move the mind of China.
If the US, Russia and Britain really want India to be included in NSG, we might see, they will negotiate with and exert pressure on China to be in line with the majority. If China refuses to give in, it will worsen relationship with the West. Alternatively, NSG has to be reformed. The US-led group may relax the rules of NSG, withdrawing the provision of prior NPT signing or the provision of unanimity for member inclusion. The denial of India's entry will only infuriate the people of the country, which will ultimately push the whole region into chaos and confrontation, with behind-the-screen WMD dealings. It was the encouragement of the US which drove India to join NSG. During a state visit to India in November 2010, President Barack Obama announced US support for India's participation in the NSG, and during Indian Premier's visit to the US in 2016, Obama reiterated his commitment. If India is kept out of the circle, it is also a failure of the US policy.
So far China's intentions have been questioned from many quarters. China has long been opposing India's bid to secure a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. It has blocked the Indian move in UN to declare Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a terrorist. There are allegations against China that it secretly helped Pakistan and North Korea in testing and making nuclear bombs. It also unjustifiably supported Pakistan during Bangladesh's war of independence in 1971, in which India took the side of Bangladesh. China has to overcome its negative images, with becoming a fair player in the international arena.
China is a big country, and in any kind of disaster, no other neighbor but India can extend quick helping hands since it has that capacity. Recent statistics shows that China's economy is slowing down while India's is speeding up. China needs India beside it to counteract its downtrend and play a key role in the development of the South Asian region. An improved China-India relationship is the expectation of the day. The misunderstanding between the two Asian giants will only endanger the future of the world.
The writer is Director, Daffodil Institute of Languages (DIL), and Associate Professor, Department of English, Daffodil International University
Recently India has had a sour taste of it. It wanted to be the 49th member of NSG but it failed. In the 26th plenary of NSG in Seoul of South Korea on 23-24 June 2016, the application was reportedly supported by 38 countries but opposed by the rest. China was the strongest opponent, followed by Turkey, Ireland, Austria, Brazil, New Zealand and Switzerland. Despite backing of the heavyweights like the US, Russia, Britain, Canada, France, Japan, Germany and host South Korea, the case could not stand. India's drastic diplomatic efforts to convince others prior to the meeting just fell flat. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar had to eat humble pie. Nothing was more frustrating for India when China, after so many high profile requests, stuck to the idea that India must sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before finding an open door, though most of the members were ready to make an exception for India. China also claimed that if India's application is entertained, its rival Pakistan must also be treated equally. Visibly China snubbed India that cried for a 'fair and objective assessment' of its candidature. Indian dream-flight dashed into the Great Wall! Rosy smile blooms now in the lips of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
India lost the game of regional geopolitics. China, the mightiest nation of Asia, does not want any other neighbors to rise to its height. It apprehends that with an access to NSG, India will dominate the international nuclear energy market. As India's economy is getting robust, along with its burgeoning military and diplomatic powers, it has been a matter of headache for China. That India has recently strengthened its bilateral ties with the US has also angered China. The US and India have signed a nuclear energy deal and they have conducted joint military exercises in recent years. On the other hand, the relationship between the US and Pakistan has hit the record low since the latter failed to curb terrorism as expected by the former. This in turn pushed China and Pakistan into a firmer embrace. Recently the US and China had a bickering over the ship movement in the South China Sea, which China claims to be its own territory, disagreed by the US. China did not care about the US's leniency for India so much as it cared for Pakistan's interest. Pakistan has been China's strategic partner for about half a century while China has uneasy relationships with other neighboring countries like Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia, apart from India. China vehemently objected to India's NSG entry not only for its own benefit but also to appease its bosom friend.
It seems that India will not get any easy breakthrough so long as China is there. Forty eight members can hardly sing in a single voice. How will India act in the light of new reality and realization? The Seoul fiasco has left an acutely bitter taste on its tongue. It may drive India desperate. But, for sure, it is not going to sign NPT or CTBT to obviate the obstacle. Patiently it will explore other channels. India may enhance diplomatic efforts to convince China that they are not enemies. Their mutual cooperation may help maintain regional security and stability. Once a member of NSG, India may play a significant role in combating proliferation of nuclear weapons and ensure peaceful use of nuclear energy. As the economy of India is growing steadily, it has to meet huge demand of electricity, in which nuclear reactor can be of great help.
Together they may build a better future for the world. If India and China can collaborate in World Trade Organization (WTO), why can't they do so in NSG? After NSG hitch, however, India is set to become a member of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an international body that works for preventing the proliferation of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology. Earlier China attempted to enter MTCR but its dubious record of nuclear dealing got in the way. Now India can help China in entering the regime if China only reciprocates with a positive gesture. China has big business ventures in India and the trade balance is much in favor of the dragon. It can even gain further with doing India a little favor in the coveted international forum. But China is a hard nut to crack. It is easier to move the Himalayas than move the mind of China.
If the US, Russia and Britain really want India to be included in NSG, we might see, they will negotiate with and exert pressure on China to be in line with the majority. If China refuses to give in, it will worsen relationship with the West. Alternatively, NSG has to be reformed. The US-led group may relax the rules of NSG, withdrawing the provision of prior NPT signing or the provision of unanimity for member inclusion. The denial of India's entry will only infuriate the people of the country, which will ultimately push the whole region into chaos and confrontation, with behind-the-screen WMD dealings. It was the encouragement of the US which drove India to join NSG. During a state visit to India in November 2010, President Barack Obama announced US support for India's participation in the NSG, and during Indian Premier's visit to the US in 2016, Obama reiterated his commitment. If India is kept out of the circle, it is also a failure of the US policy.
So far China's intentions have been questioned from many quarters. China has long been opposing India's bid to secure a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. It has blocked the Indian move in UN to declare Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a terrorist. There are allegations against China that it secretly helped Pakistan and North Korea in testing and making nuclear bombs. It also unjustifiably supported Pakistan during Bangladesh's war of independence in 1971, in which India took the side of Bangladesh. China has to overcome its negative images, with becoming a fair player in the international arena.
China is a big country, and in any kind of disaster, no other neighbor but India can extend quick helping hands since it has that capacity. Recent statistics shows that China's economy is slowing down while India's is speeding up. China needs India beside it to counteract its downtrend and play a key role in the development of the South Asian region. An improved China-India relationship is the expectation of the day. The misunderstanding between the two Asian giants will only endanger the future of the world.
The writer is Director, Daffodil Institute of Languages (DIL), and Associate Professor, Department of English, Daffodil International University
