Published: 12:00 AM, 01 January 2016
Bangladesh in 2016: Growth without stability
Development Surprise
On the threshold of the New Year 2016, it is heartening to note that Bangladesh continues to show higher grow trajectory buoyed by external opportunities and internal drives. At the same time, true to" Bangladesh Paradox', the country has to brave more turbulence and instability within its society and state structures in the coming year. Resilient GDP growth is the foremost highlight of Bangladesh economy. It has been maintaining macroeconomic stability for the past two and half decades. The global recovery, strong growth of domestic demand and sustained macro stability bode well for Bangladesh's GDP growth. The economy has been growing at a rate of 6.2 per cent annually for the past 10 years. In fact, data reveals that the performance of Bangladesh economy can be compared to India and surpassed Pakistan. Recent stable growth of the economy has been supported by the performance of external sector. The economy is highly dependent on exports earnings and remittance receipts, the latter is an special feature of the Bangladesh economy. It is one of the highest remittance recipient economies in South Asia. Over the last decades growth of remittances has been steady ? remittance earnings increased to $15.3 billion in FY2015 from $ 11.7 billion in FY2011. During the same period, average growth of exports was about 8.1 per cent and imports growth was recorded at about 4.9 per cent. This low growth of imports has eased the pressure on the external balance providing adequate space for resource allocation. Looking forward, Bangladesh economy is likely to perform well in the years to come. In the 7th Five Year Plan (2016-2020) GDP growth has been projected higher than the economy's recent performance. The government's intention is to achieve 8 per cent growth target by FY20. However, much depends on the rise in investment share in GDP which is estimated to expand from 27.9 per cent in FY2015 to around 34.4 per cent by FY 2020. This is highly correlated with maintaining internal stability and peaceful environment in the country. The crucial question, therefore, arises whether and how Bangladesh can do that in 2016 and beyond.
A nation born in high Hopes
Historically, Bangladesh was born with high hopes and almost a utopian dream of establishing a Sonar Bangla"- egalitarian, democratic and secular. Ironically, Bangladesh's experience as an independent nation since 1971 has been traumatic as well as promising. The first decade witnessed extreme volatility in politics, the second decade with a brief interlude of civilian-democratic regime, was marked by a long period of authoritarian rule of General Ershad. The dawn of 1990s witnessed changing notes - the global democratic revolution paved the way for democratization in Bangladesh. The return to a democratic rule in 1991 with a consensus on parliamentary system of government was an important episode in Bangladesh's political history.
New Transformation
Today, on the eve of the New Year, Bangladesh seems to have come to another turning point in its transformation focused more on becoming a 'middle income', effectively governed democratic country. Unfortunately, continued volatility in Bangladesh's political arena in the coming year is likely to traumatize the economy and bring seeds of dissensions and conflicts. Whether it is to maintain law and order or clamp down on opposition movements, the government's use of state force for political gain will further fuel the public mood. In fact, the present government needs to address effectively crucial areas of governance i.e., public law and order, combating corruption, bureaucratic performance, and human security that has fallen short of citizens' expectations in the past years. On the contrary, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the founding father of the nation in trying to effectively decapitate the Islamist opposition, is closing off all avenues for discourse and dialogue with opposition parties.
Tough on Terrorism
Sheikh Hasina deserves credit for taking a tough stance on terrorism. But her style of governance and unwillingness to provide political space for the opposition parties is undermining counter-terrorism goals by opening the door for extremist forces to exploit the increasingly polarized political environment. That risks further radicalization in the South Asian country of 160 million that has already witnessed a series of killings of free thinkers and, more recently, attacks on foreigners. The political polarization between the ruling Awami League government and opposition Bangladesh National Party has already widened to an extent that opened the door for a dangerous wave of Islamist extremist attacks in the historically moderate Muslim democracy. The present government must use its political tools and leverage to prevent extremist violence and instability and to keep Bangladesh - the third largest Muslim majority country with on the democratic path. Both are essential to maintain the important social and economic gains of the past decade.
Ordeal of Democracy
The ordeal that democracy is undergoing in Bangladesh today raise serious concerns about its future stability. While democracy is one of the greatest aspirations of the people of Bangladesh, the way it unfolded over the past decades did not inspire them, and its prospect appears gloomy now. In fact, there is a widespread perception that the democracy is doomed at least for some time in the coming years. The demand of the opposition BNP and other parties for holding a mid-term 'free and fair election' through a transitional government has convulsed the Bangladesh society and polity. Indeed, to avoid entering into a new conflict in the New Year characterized by unending violence and extremism, there needs to be a meaningful and effective dialogue and compromise among the political parties to resolve the current 'crisis'. The failure points to further intensification of conflict and political instability. The consequences could be stark- protracted internal conflict with further erosion of democratic institutions, rule of law, and freedom of expression pushing Bangladesh to the category of 'conflict state'. The country's laudable economic success in the past decade will be blurred. The Awami regime's legitimate credit in holding the war crimes trial will be overshadowed, and the government's blatant use of state power will be leading to its isolation in the international community.
Conclusion: Challenging Interface
The challenging interface of democracy and development is, therefore, critical at this point of Bangladesh's political history. The current political leadership symbolized by Sheikh Hasina seems to be inclined to this model where strong economy must precede the reconstruction of democracy. For many years in the past century, conventional wisdom has held that authoritarian governments are better able to marshal the resources necessary to promote economic development than are democracies, and that a certain level of economic development is necessary for democracy to take hold and flourish in a country. That view deserves a new examination in the post-Cold War world. Many experts now believe that this is misplaced belief and that countries can prosper without becoming authoritarian regimes like China, Korea or Malaysia experienced in their development stories. Of course, a certain level of economic development is needed in order to succeed in democratic transformations through "informed stakeholders, a vibrant middle class, an entrepreneurial group and an educated population".
In such context, Bangladesh has come full circle to the tipping point it faced after its independence. Today, therefore, our challenge in 2016 is not to choose the alternative to democracy as we sometimes preoccupy ourselves with power, personal glory, governing institutions and economic rent, and neglect the critical variable of public interest and cultural mode of our people. We intend to put our faith and optimism on our political leadership, and let us hope today that our optimism prevail over pessimism that people often show, and positive energy triumphs over negative and misdirected efforts in bringing the desirable "change' in Bangladesh state and society in the New Year.
The writer is President of Bangladesh Political Scientists Association
On the threshold of the New Year 2016, it is heartening to note that Bangladesh continues to show higher grow trajectory buoyed by external opportunities and internal drives. At the same time, true to" Bangladesh Paradox', the country has to brave more turbulence and instability within its society and state structures in the coming year. Resilient GDP growth is the foremost highlight of Bangladesh economy. It has been maintaining macroeconomic stability for the past two and half decades. The global recovery, strong growth of domestic demand and sustained macro stability bode well for Bangladesh's GDP growth. The economy has been growing at a rate of 6.2 per cent annually for the past 10 years. In fact, data reveals that the performance of Bangladesh economy can be compared to India and surpassed Pakistan. Recent stable growth of the economy has been supported by the performance of external sector. The economy is highly dependent on exports earnings and remittance receipts, the latter is an special feature of the Bangladesh economy. It is one of the highest remittance recipient economies in South Asia. Over the last decades growth of remittances has been steady ? remittance earnings increased to $15.3 billion in FY2015 from $ 11.7 billion in FY2011. During the same period, average growth of exports was about 8.1 per cent and imports growth was recorded at about 4.9 per cent. This low growth of imports has eased the pressure on the external balance providing adequate space for resource allocation. Looking forward, Bangladesh economy is likely to perform well in the years to come. In the 7th Five Year Plan (2016-2020) GDP growth has been projected higher than the economy's recent performance. The government's intention is to achieve 8 per cent growth target by FY20. However, much depends on the rise in investment share in GDP which is estimated to expand from 27.9 per cent in FY2015 to around 34.4 per cent by FY 2020. This is highly correlated with maintaining internal stability and peaceful environment in the country. The crucial question, therefore, arises whether and how Bangladesh can do that in 2016 and beyond.
A nation born in high Hopes
Historically, Bangladesh was born with high hopes and almost a utopian dream of establishing a Sonar Bangla"- egalitarian, democratic and secular. Ironically, Bangladesh's experience as an independent nation since 1971 has been traumatic as well as promising. The first decade witnessed extreme volatility in politics, the second decade with a brief interlude of civilian-democratic regime, was marked by a long period of authoritarian rule of General Ershad. The dawn of 1990s witnessed changing notes - the global democratic revolution paved the way for democratization in Bangladesh. The return to a democratic rule in 1991 with a consensus on parliamentary system of government was an important episode in Bangladesh's political history.
New Transformation
Today, on the eve of the New Year, Bangladesh seems to have come to another turning point in its transformation focused more on becoming a 'middle income', effectively governed democratic country. Unfortunately, continued volatility in Bangladesh's political arena in the coming year is likely to traumatize the economy and bring seeds of dissensions and conflicts. Whether it is to maintain law and order or clamp down on opposition movements, the government's use of state force for political gain will further fuel the public mood. In fact, the present government needs to address effectively crucial areas of governance i.e., public law and order, combating corruption, bureaucratic performance, and human security that has fallen short of citizens' expectations in the past years. On the contrary, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the founding father of the nation in trying to effectively decapitate the Islamist opposition, is closing off all avenues for discourse and dialogue with opposition parties.
Tough on Terrorism
Sheikh Hasina deserves credit for taking a tough stance on terrorism. But her style of governance and unwillingness to provide political space for the opposition parties is undermining counter-terrorism goals by opening the door for extremist forces to exploit the increasingly polarized political environment. That risks further radicalization in the South Asian country of 160 million that has already witnessed a series of killings of free thinkers and, more recently, attacks on foreigners. The political polarization between the ruling Awami League government and opposition Bangladesh National Party has already widened to an extent that opened the door for a dangerous wave of Islamist extremist attacks in the historically moderate Muslim democracy. The present government must use its political tools and leverage to prevent extremist violence and instability and to keep Bangladesh - the third largest Muslim majority country with on the democratic path. Both are essential to maintain the important social and economic gains of the past decade.
Ordeal of Democracy
The ordeal that democracy is undergoing in Bangladesh today raise serious concerns about its future stability. While democracy is one of the greatest aspirations of the people of Bangladesh, the way it unfolded over the past decades did not inspire them, and its prospect appears gloomy now. In fact, there is a widespread perception that the democracy is doomed at least for some time in the coming years. The demand of the opposition BNP and other parties for holding a mid-term 'free and fair election' through a transitional government has convulsed the Bangladesh society and polity. Indeed, to avoid entering into a new conflict in the New Year characterized by unending violence and extremism, there needs to be a meaningful and effective dialogue and compromise among the political parties to resolve the current 'crisis'. The failure points to further intensification of conflict and political instability. The consequences could be stark- protracted internal conflict with further erosion of democratic institutions, rule of law, and freedom of expression pushing Bangladesh to the category of 'conflict state'. The country's laudable economic success in the past decade will be blurred. The Awami regime's legitimate credit in holding the war crimes trial will be overshadowed, and the government's blatant use of state power will be leading to its isolation in the international community.
Conclusion: Challenging Interface
The challenging interface of democracy and development is, therefore, critical at this point of Bangladesh's political history. The current political leadership symbolized by Sheikh Hasina seems to be inclined to this model where strong economy must precede the reconstruction of democracy. For many years in the past century, conventional wisdom has held that authoritarian governments are better able to marshal the resources necessary to promote economic development than are democracies, and that a certain level of economic development is necessary for democracy to take hold and flourish in a country. That view deserves a new examination in the post-Cold War world. Many experts now believe that this is misplaced belief and that countries can prosper without becoming authoritarian regimes like China, Korea or Malaysia experienced in their development stories. Of course, a certain level of economic development is needed in order to succeed in democratic transformations through "informed stakeholders, a vibrant middle class, an entrepreneurial group and an educated population".
In such context, Bangladesh has come full circle to the tipping point it faced after its independence. Today, therefore, our challenge in 2016 is not to choose the alternative to democracy as we sometimes preoccupy ourselves with power, personal glory, governing institutions and economic rent, and neglect the critical variable of public interest and cultural mode of our people. We intend to put our faith and optimism on our political leadership, and let us hope today that our optimism prevail over pessimism that people often show, and positive energy triumphs over negative and misdirected efforts in bringing the desirable "change' in Bangladesh state and society in the New Year.
The writer is President of Bangladesh Political Scientists Association
