Military coup in Myanmar and future of Rohingya repatriation

Myanmar hit headlines around the world on 1 February 2021 when its military seized power and the country's de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and members of her party were detained. After taking power, the Myanmar Army has declared a year-long state of emergency. Myanmar Army seized power by removing the elected representatives on charges of vote rigging. After taking control of power by Myanmar Army Rohingya repatriation from Bangladesh is now facing uncertainty.

During Suu Kyi's past five years rule, Myanmar's civilian government led by Suu Kyi and the Military have different views on almost all issues, but the two sides have had a common position on Rohingya policy. Therefore, analysts believe that even if there is a change of power in Myanmar, there will not be much change in the policy relating to the minority Rohingya Muslims.

Rohingyas staying in Bangladesh being frightened In August 2017, a deadly crackdown by Myanmar's Army on Rohingya Muslims sent hundreds of thousands of them pouring into Bangladesh. At that time the Rohingya people risked everything to escape by sea or on foot due to the military offensive which the UN (United Nations) later described as a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing".

A counterinsurgency operation by Myanmar’s military in 2017 drove more than 700,000 Rohingyas from Myanmar and they took shelter in Bangladesh. At that time the newly arrived Rohingyas joined with the previous 300,000-500,000 Rohingya people who were already staying in Bangladesh fled by earlier persecutions.

Now there are more than 1.1 million Rohingyas, living in 34 camps of Cox's Bazar, the South Eastern District of Bangladesh and the host Bangladesh is eager to begin their repatriation to Myanmar. Several attempts of Rohingya repatriation under a joint agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar failed because the Rohingyas refused to go back, fearing more violence in Myanmar that denies them basic rights including citizenship. The Rohingya people said they are more afraid now as the military is in complete control of Myanmar.

Khin Maung, head of the Rohingya Youth Association in the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar said to the AP (Associated Press) on February 1, 2021, “The Myanmar military killed us, raped our sisters and mothers, torched our villages. How is it possible for us to stay safe under their control?” He also said, “Any peaceful repatriation will hugely be impacted but It will take a long time because the political situation in Myanmar is worse now.”

Khin Maung added that the military may refuse to negotiate with the Bangladeshi government to repatriate the Rohingya, causing further delay. “Of course, repatriation negotiations will be delayed. Both the civilian and military government have the same policy on Rohingya, and in this situation, the existing Rohingya in Rakhine state will have a worse future,” Maung added.

Rohingyas may be tortured again and there is fear of new Rohingya exodusThe United Nations has expressed concern that the military coup in Myanmar could exacerbate the plight of the Rohingyas who are still staying in Rakhine state of Myanmar.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters on February 1, just after the Army Coup in Myanmar, "there are about 600,000 Rohingya those that remain in Rakhine State, including 120,000 people who are effectively confined to IDP ((Internally Displaced People) ) camps, they cannot move freely and have extremely limited access to basic health and education services," "So our fear is that the events may make the situation worse for them," he added.

The Rohingyas, who are still living in Rakhine state, outside the concentration camps or IDP camps, are also in fear after the military coup. There is also a fear of new persecution against Rohingyas living in Rakhine state and new Rohingya exodus may happen again.

It is learned that many Rohingyas living in Rakhine state are communicating with their relatives in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh to find out about various issues relating escaping from Myanmar.According to the Rohingyas living in Rakhine, the Myanmar Army that has now taken power has led the entire Rohingya massacre in Rakhine in 2017. They will be humane towards the Rohingyas living in Rakhine, which the Rohingyas cannot even hope now-a-days.

Meanwhile, the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) has stepped up surveillance at the Bangladesh border with Myanmar to prevent a fresh influx of Rohingyas amid speculation that the coup in the neighbouring nation could push more Rohingyas into Bangladesh. In addition, the patrols of the Navy and the Coast Guard have been intensified in the waters of Bangladesh bordering Myanmar.

New Hope- after coup Myanmar military ‘reaches out’ to Rohingyas in Rakhine After taking power, the military administration in Myanmar has tried to reach out to the Rohingya community in Rakhine State. Many analysts see the issue as a "desire for a gradual return to normalcy" by the present military administration in the Rakhine state to build trust among the Rohingyas living there or living abroad.The first goodwill gesture from the new military administration towards the Rohingyas was reported on 4 February 2021 in Sittwe, the capital of the Rakhine state.

A source in Myanmar told UNB (United News of Bangladesh) that Rakhine State Regional Military Commander went to Aung Minglar Quarter, Sittwe and met some Rohingya community leaders and talked to them for about 45 minutes. Aung Minglar Quarter is the area of Sittwe, where a few thousand of Rohingyas have been languishing since 2012 like 23 others isolated IDP (Internally Displaced People) camps in Rakhine state since the anti-Rohingya communal violence of 2012.

The Regional Military Commander argued in favour of the Army coup to the Rohingya leaders. The Military commander inquired about the situation of the Rohingya community in that part of Rakhine State. At the time, Rohingya leaders reportedly mentioned "severe restrictions on movement" as their main problem. The Military Commander gave the hope of easing the existing restriction on movement to the Rohingyas.

He also informed the Rohingya community that the new military administration would try to solve all the problems step by step.Later the Regional Commander donated 500,000 MMKs (USD 350) and some food aid for the mosque in Aung Minglar Quarter. The Military Commander blamed the NLD (National League of Democracy) and Aung Sun Suu Kyi for what happened to Rohingyas in 2017.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen told the reporters after a program in Dhaka on 8 February, "We have received news that the new military commander of Rakhine have visited the camps of the Rohingya in Rakhine and talked to their leaders." The Rohingyas in the Cox's Bazar camp were very happy to learn this, the Foreign Minister said. “This is good news, A good beginning,” he added also. However, the Foreign Minister mentioned that the news of the Myanmar Army's visit to the Rakhine state has not been officially confirmed yet.

Through various sources it is confirmed that Myanmar Army visited the Rohingyas at Rakhine state. But what is the aim of the Army visit is not clear yet. Analysts say it is not time to comment on whether the Myanmar Army's behaviour indicates a possible "softening" towards the Rohingyas or trying to recover part of its lost image in Rakhine, and possibly to show that they can deliver more what the NLD or Suu Kye Govt. could not.

But it is true that the new gesture of Myanmar Army will precisely help boost the confidence of the Rohingyas and could also promote reconciliation in Rakhine state. It will also send a positive signal to the Rohingyas living in various camps of Cox's Bazar which is very important to build confidence among the potentially interested Rohingyas to return to Myanmar that will help Bangladesh Govt. to start voluntary repatriation.

Myanmar Coup Leader: Rohingyas To Be Repatriated from Bangladesh Myanmar's Army chief General Min Aung Hlaing on 8 February said that the Rohingyas who fled to Bangladesh during a 2017 crisis will continue to be repatriated to Rakhine state. After seizing the power, in his first televised speech the Army chief mentioned that military rule would be different this time.

In his speech the Army General echoed previous military insistence that the power grab was in line with the constitution but declared that this time things would be “different” from the Army’s previous 49-year reign, which ended in 2011. He also accused Suu Kyi and other leaders, who are currently under house arrest, of failing to properly hold the general election in November last year. The Army General also mentioned that a "free and fair" election will be held once the state of emergency is over.

Some experts hope that since the Myanmar Army has had to face criticism from the western nations for the coup, it might be more willing to back some Rohingyas. The present Army administration also have taken some positive steps besides talking with the Rakhine Rohingyas. Some days after the Military coup, the junta administration ended a 19-month internet shutdown and reaffirmed a commitment to a ceasefire with the militant group at Rakhine state. The Myanmar Army also announced a member of a local Rakhine nationalist party would be joining its Cabinet.

Analysts believe that the steps taken by the Myanmar Army administration do not prove that it will repatriate the Rohingyas soon. Even the Rohingyas living abroad or in Rakhine do not have the courage to believe that the Army will do better for them. Tun Khin, President of the Burma Rohingya Organisation U.K. lobby group said to the AFP that, "no one believes a word they (Myanmar Army) say."

UN Security Council calls for Rohingya repatriation The UN Security Council has called for an environment conducive to the safe, voluntary, sustainable and dignified repatriation of the Rohingyas, reiterating the need to address the root causes of the crisis in Myanmar's Rakhine state that caused hundreds of thousands of mainly-Muslim Rohingya flee for their lives following a brutal military crackdown in 2017.

In a statement on 4 February 2021 the UN Security Council members emphasized the need for the continued support of the democratic transition in Myanmar. They expressed deep concern at the declaration of the state of emergency imposed in Myanmar by the military on 1 February and the arbitrary detention of members of the Government, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint and other NLD leaders. They called for the immediate release of all those detained leaders of Myanmar.

Bangladesh position in Rohingya repatriation after the military coup in Myanmar Since August 2017, more than 700,000 Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh due to the torture and persecution by the Myanmar Army and now there are more than 1.1 million Rohingyas living in Bangladesh. After the exodus Bangladesh has been trying to find a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis in a number of ways - bilateral, multilateral, tripartite and even through the judiciary. But till today no positive output on Rohingya repatriation happens.

On 23 November 2017, Bangladesh and Myanmar signed the Rohingya Repatriation Deal at Naypyidaw. On January 16, 2018, Dhaka-Naypyidaw also signed an agreement on 'Physical Arrangement', to help the Rohingya return to their homeland. But due to the lack of confidence of the Rohingyas in the Myanmar government, the repatriation efforts failed twice, in November 2018 and August 2019. Now more than three years have passed since the latest 2017 exodus occurred and not a single Rohingya has been repatriated to Myanmar.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Myanmar's elections in last year no progress on Rohingya repatriation happened. However, early this year a tripartite meeting involving officials from Bangladesh, Myanmar and China was held, and Dhaka expressed optimism of beginning the Rohingya repatriation in the second half of the year. After more than a year, the China mediated virtual meeting on January 19 fixed the date of next meeting on February 4. But the February 4 meeting was postponed due to the changed circumstances of Military coup in Myanmar.

Bangladesh still wants to rely on China for Rohingya repatriation process. On February 3, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen told reporters at his office, "We still have confidence in China. We maintain friendship with all countries. China and Japan have advanced. China has moved forward (regarding repatriation talks) a bit further. We take China into confidence."

The Foreign Minister said, "We want to continue the Rohingya repatriation process. We had an agreement with the Government, not with any individual in Myanmar. Earlier in 1980s and 90's, we repatriated Rohingyas when there was a military regime." It is an opportunity for Myanmar to make repatriation happen. If they do it, all others will be with them," the Foreign Minister added.

However, Rohingya analysts could not agree with the Foreign Minister remarks. According to them, Suu Kyi was in power at the time of the Rohingya genocide in 2017, but the Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) was the main party who did the genocide. As a result, they think that Bangladesh needs to be more aware of Myanmar in the change of power. The experts suggest for more pressure from International community on Myanmar for the Rohingya repatriation.

Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka told DW that "It's the military government that has initiated the repatriations in the past, not when Aung San Suu Kyi was in power," adding: "Same thing could happen now if the military wants to ease some international pressure by taking back the refugees (Rohingyas)." Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, also shares a similar view while talking to DW, arguing that renewed international pressure could make a difference.

Everyone expects that the present Myanmar Military administration will respect the Rohingya repatriation agreement with Bangladesh and the Rohingya repatriation issue not to be suppressed in any way. Let the discussion on the repatriation process that has started after being closed for almost a year continue and let the Rohingyas return to their homeland, Myanmar.


The writer is Doctoral Researcher of Massey University, New Zealand