The Shifting Sand of Politics

Since those lamenting words of Sukanto decades ago, even from the ages before the world has hardly experienced any real peace. Our today's world is also no different. The Arab world is burning and burning without any serious effort to douse the fire. On the contrary fresh fuels are being added to inflame them further. The latest theatre of the proxy war in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the region, has been pulverised by fratricidal war for nearly a decade now without any sign of letting up.

Just the news arrived today, that the Saudi  (supposedly the leader of the Muslim world) led coalition bombed a detention centre of Yemen, killing more than 90 inmates, ostensibly in retaliation to the Yemeni Houthi drone attack in Abu Dhabi on January 15, killing three persons, an attack of first of its kind-perhaps sending a message of what more is in the offing. The Houthis have also warned the foreigners living in the country to leave.

While the unrelenting and timeless war of America in the Muslim world appeared to have lost its appetite and endurance under heavy stress, fatigue and aimless squandering of public money to the tune of trillions of dollars, literally to no tangible purpose. There is an old saying, old habits die hard. America needs a shadow enemy. Having miserably failed in Vietnam and the Middle East, the US is now tinkering with China. But neither the US can anticipate nor does the world, what would or might happen if things go out of hand. I hope sanity will prevail on both sides- not only for their own good but for the entire world.

The world is already roiling from a myriad of woes from the undiminishing drum beats of war to the threat of climate change to the economic challenges to the devastation of the world order by a relentless and indiscriminate onslaught of the Covid-19, with its armies of known and unknown variants. Governments all over the world, irrespective of their economic stature have been stretched to the limit to deal with the situation, though the few super-rich individuals have made astronomical but loathsome expansion of their fortune at the cost of the miseries of humankind.

But coming back to the home front, it seems that Bangladesh has suddenly found itself in the eyes of a brewing storm." Suddenly", perhaps is the wrong choice of word. The dust has been gathering around the corner for some time, which has now become more noticeable. The target is the ruling party. But before I go into more details let me make a brief credit report for the Sheikh Hasina Government since her return to power in 2009.

 By the time she finishes her current tenure in 2024, she will go down in history as not only the longest-serving prime minister of Bangladesh but of the entire world- an enviable record that's unlikely to be broken by anyone soon. She has also proved to be the most successful politician in South Asia, by her indomitable courage, vision, single-mindedness and strong leadership qualities. During her term in office, she has faced enormous challenges both internally and externally including reportedly several attempts on her life. Yet, neither she cowered down nor she stumbled.

She forged ahead with vigour and determination. As a result, within the last decade or so she has put Bangladesh in a respectable spot on the world stage. Bangladesh truly is perceived today as a role model of development - how a war-ravaged, impoverished, climate-vulnerable, disease-infested country can turn the table and rise as an emerging economic power, surmounting all the impediments and surpassing all its neighbours in all the social and economic indicators.

More so, she has successfully steered the country through the menacing challenges of the long pandemic without much damage to the economy and social structure and continues to fight the constant threat of climate change and global warming. It's not for nothing that the world reputed New York Times' journalist  Nicolas Christoff, in one of his recent articles asked President Biden to learn from Bangladesh how to deal with poverty and the pandemic at the same time.

The infrastructure developments in Bangladesh have been phenomenal and eye-catching and if the present momentum continues, within the next decade the face of Bangladesh will completely change as we make steady but firm progress towards becoming a middle-income country by the year 2026. For her contribution and leadership, Sheikh Hasina has been deservedly applauded by several international organisations which have also bestowed upon her numerous awards.

She has also earned the world's respect as a kind and humanitarian leader for providing safe shelter for more than three years now to over one million Rohingyas, who became victims of persecution, ethnic cleansing and genocide in their own country of Myanmar, despite Bangladesh's own economic constraints. Bangladesh also secured a respectable place in the world financial sector recently by advancing an emergency loan of US$200 million to Sri Lanka to deal with its current financial crisis.

The world reputed Hollywood actor DiCaprio in a recent tweet has applauded the government's proactive action in establishing a marine protected area around Saint Martin's Island. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina can genuinely boast and deserve all the accolades and recognition for what she has done for the country.Unfortunately, amid these successes, there is also a crack that's drawing attention both internally and externally on the fronts of the style of governance, democracy and issues of human rights and freedom of expression in Bangladesh.

According to reports there is a pervasive sense of lack of freedom in the country with a constant fear of safety, enforced disappearance, police brutality, unbridled corruption and the culture of impunity of the powerful, whatever the wrong they do. On the front of democracy, although the 2008 general election was not above reproach, the country more or less accepted it as largely free and fair. But this cannot certainly be said about the two subsequent elections in 2014 and 2019 respectively.

However much the ruling party beats its drum about the fairness of those two elections neither the world nor the country, in general, is convinced, which have largely contributed to the tarnishing of the credibility of the government. There are allegations of partiality against the Election Commission and also the Parliament being turned into a mere rubber stamp. All other vital institutions of the country have also come under serious public scrutiny.

In the backdrop of these long-simmering developments, the news of the exclusion of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from the World Democracy Summit convened by President Biden on December 9-10, 2021, in which 100 world leaders were invited, came as a surprise and a rude shock- perhaps a waking up call.

This was followed by the announcement of the US treasury department's sanctions on some current and former  RAB officials including the incumbent Inspector General of Police (IGP),. The announcement of the sanctions was timed to coincide with International Human Rights Day. Earlier on November 21,   a group of 12 International Human Rights Organisations sent an appeal to the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operation to ban all former and current  RAB officials from deployment in UN peace missions.

There is also a report that a state minister and a senior bureaucrat were not allowed to enter the US. On January 22, 2022, a member of the European Parliament addressed a letter to Mr Joseph Borrell, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the European Union asking his help for the re-establishment of democracy in Bangladesh.

These are certainly ominous signs and do not bode well either for the ruling party or for the country. It would be foolhardy or naive to brush them aside or ignore their gravity. The government seriously needs to put its head together on how to weather this storm, without much damage to itself or the country.
Before I put some of my humble suggestions, let me try to guess as to why the Awami League Government has been made a target and now? Working

at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1996 as the Director General ( Americas & Pacific), I am a first-hand witness to how the return of the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina was welcomed by the US Government. There were a series of high-level visits to the country with assurances of goodwill and support. She was also welcomed by President Clinton at the White House.

Bangladesh was also touted as a role model of democracy in the Islamic world. I remember Congressman Bill Richardson, a close friend of President Bill Clinton who was visiting Bangladesh in 1996 as a Special US Envoy, at a public address at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies(BIISS), hailed Bangladesh as a country that has proudly demonstrated that Islam and democracy can not only prosper together but can also be complementary to each other. Still, the US considers Bangladesh as an important partner and the two countries see eye to eye on many major issues- the just departed US Ambassador Earl Miller has also reiterated the same sentiment. Yet, why this frost?

First of all, having withdrawn from the long drawn wars, the US has plenty of time to focus on some of the major global issues, ignored by the last administration.  Chief amongst them is the strengthening of democracy and human rights, globally. The US has also not spared its closest partners from lecturing them on those vital issues.

Before the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, fighting Islamic militancy and threats from its spread occupied the minds of the US policymakers. Bangladesh was considered as a major partner or a strong supporter of this endeavour, which enabled it to be on the favourable side of the US, despite Bangladesh's gradual economic closeness to China, to the former's consternation.

Whether the China factor has played a role is debatable. So, it appears that the Islamic militancy card has outlived its utility and the US genuinely wants to see the establishment of real participatory democracy and restoration of universally accepted human rights and good and transparent governance are firmly rooted in the country.

There is no denying that  Sheikh Hasina, for all purposes, is an all-powerful prime minister, exercising by design or by circumstances all the powers of the state. Her words and her wishes are the law and she has the last word. It's only she who can with her gusto change everything and change to her benefit and of the nation. She still holds the initiative.

Only she needs the courage to once again show the stillness of her mind- as she demonstrated in 2009 by going alone to the Dhaka cantonment to face the hostile officers, following the tragic BDR incident in February of that year, when her grip over the government was still wobbly. She faced them with courage and faced them successfully. She can do the same again.

The following are my humble submission :
Prepare a strong team with deep knowledge of the American Administration, their policy and how those policies are made. It's a shame despite having so many party tentacles, advisers and friends in the US capital nobody could envisage what was coming. This team should visit Washington DC and parley with the top congress and administration officials and convince them that a change is coming to Bangladesh. This effort may not reverse the current sanction but may help prevent further damage.

2. The Prime Minister may declare a general amnesty or presidential pardon to all the opposition political leaders, albeit under certain quid pro quo,so as to create a conducive condition  and convene a round table talk to rescue the country out of the present imbroglio, within a specific timeframe.3. Before convening the talk the two major parties may decide on an agreed agenda to be jointly prepared by their nominated delegates.4. The law minister has reportedly said that the Digital Security Act 2018  will be amended soon. Doing that will be a good start.

Bangladesh is endowed with the unique blessings of Allah. We should also not forget the untold sacrifices made by the people of this country for its independence. Our people have a tremendous power of ingenuity. We don't need outsiders to solve our problems. We can do it by ourselves. What's needed however is necessary wisdom, pragmatism, magnanimity, vision and sagacity. I am sure this too will pass. The author is a former secretary and served as Bangladesh Ambassador to several countries."


Ashraf ud Doula is a Former Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Government of Bangladesh.