QUAD & Balance of Power in the Asia-Pacific

After much of speculation and several years of effort, the QUAD a four member multilateral organization emerged in 2021.The US led QUAD held its maiden meeting on 18 February 2021 followed by QUAD summit meeting on 12 March 2021. After the meeting the leaders publicly pledged for an open and free Indo Pacific region. Emergence of this multilateral entity has caused much of displeasure of China. Since inception China has been critical and very often dubbing it as an Asian version of North Atlantic Treaty (NATO).

Following the emergence of QUAD, China as part of power play conducted several flyovers in April 2021 into Taiwan's air defense independent zone (ADIZ) using military aircrafts. The mainstream media outlets in China labeled this action as tests for Biden administration. Chinese response coupled with its routine maritime actions in South China Sea has become an acid test for US and its QUAD partners. Above all the absolute dominance of China in the region often brings heightened tension which has reinforced the need for an alliance to maintain balance of power in Asia Pacific.

It may be recalled that the Brussels Treaty of 1948 was signed between Great Britain, France, Belgium, Netherland and Luxembourg which later served as model for NATO alliance to counter communist threat of Russia against West Europe. With the formation of QUAD it has been proved that political ideas have shelf life that extends well beyond historical context. An improvised coalition comprising Australia, India, Japan and the USA was formed for humanitarian operation to support the Tsunami victims of Sri Lanka and Sumatra in 2004. The humanitarian and rescue operation ended successfully within three months. Since then despite constant effort of US and Japan the coalition did not take its concrete shape. During Obama era the style of Pivot to Asia and in Trumps administration period Indo Pacific Strategy was on paper without tangible delivery on ground. President Biden style of Asian security strategy is the creation of QUAD alliance. From the beginning the alliance was viewed as an anti- China alliance.

Indo Pacific allies would seek to curb Chinese dominance in the region. The region, sometimes known as the Indo-West Pacific or Indo-Pacific Asia is a biogeographic region of Earth's seas comprising the tropical water of Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean. The region has growing strategic importance to international security.

Once relegated to geopolitical sidelines in last century China has begun to reassert its place at the center of global affairs. Market reforms and integration into the global economy has enabled China to acquire substantial coercive power. Obviously these development have strategic anxiety in Asia Pacific which bears deeper connotation of balance of power.  China's desperate attempt in militarization of South China Sea has givenrise to concern of US and maritime security threat to the countries in the region and across. On the other hand Chinese incursion in Ladakh and Galwan valley in June2020 leaving 20 Indian soldiers killed has forced India for the first time to seek alliance in confronting a super power.

Notwithstanding the rationale for QUAD alliance, in the wake of Russian invasion against Ukraine it is quite imperative to delve deep into whether such alliance at all can protect interest of the small states in the region. The current super power rivalry between Russia with US and her allies has brought the interest of Ukraine down to its knee. In the same token, China's dominance in the Indo-Pacific region is contrary to the existing international law. Especially, China's claim up to 9-desh line (a dotted line based on map of Chinese Ming Dynasty)  as her territorial water virtually leave no freedom of navigation by other states. Most importantly the littoral states in the region like Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brunei are adversely constrained by China's unilateral claim over the sea.

Under the given circumstances it may appear encouraging and many littoral states may feel little optimistic about their security interest. Though it is not prudent to compare QUAD with other alliance like NATO at this stage, emergence of this multilateral entity has been a constant source of irritation for China. QUAD is expected to inch towards a collective security alliance in the region for many reason. First, to deter China from absolute claim of almost the whole of South China Sea. Second, the littoral states in the region need to be protected from Chinese hegemony. Third, to maintain freedom of navigation in the international water body.

China may considers that financial and economic incentive offered to the littoral states may render Quad ineffective. In reality, this doctrine is likely to falter once the question of security and existence of a state is in question.

China's Belt Road Initiative (BRI) project intended to bring all the countries of South and East Asia knitted with road and maritime silk route. There are allegations against China for compelling loan recipients into debt trap. Billion dollar project in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are finally loaming as economic burden for them.

FDI to Bangladesh from China is on the rise and has jumped by about 200 percent in last one year. China is financing Payra Deep Sea Port at an estimated cost of $1.5 billion. China has been given access to other seaports of Chattagram and Mongla. Padma Bridge Rail Link project is financed and constructed by China at an estimated cost of US $ 3.3 billion. China's latest offer to construct Metro rail in Chattagram city in exchange of handing overland adjacent to Mir Shorai export processing zone (EPZ)along the coast line for building a smart city to be usedby China needs to be viewed from its strategic and  economic perspective. Impact of such lofty and pompous proposal has far reaching security implications.

American strategy as envisioned by QUAD members is primarily intended to establish rules based free and open Indo Pacific. In materializing this vision, QUAD has to encounter the second largest economy of the world China, The strategy is constrained by two factors. First, Chinese military power particularly its missile defence umbrella is practically unchallenged between Himalayans and the Sea of Japan. China maintains multiple layers of area defence which is backed by Chinese way of Area Denial (AD) tactics. Most importantly the Spratly and Fiery Cross Island developed and armed by China in the middle of South China Sea act as forward bases to stop enemy intrusion toward mainland either by air or sea.

Second, in the past US employed economic warfare in the form of sanction against her adversary. Today, China is too much integrated to the global trades and commerce. It would be difficult to isolate China by economic sanction. Most countries have business ties with China more than with US.To the extent the US has to continue trade with Beijing for own interest. So, the traditional way of countering China either by military intervention or economic sanction would be almost futile effort. Instead, like cold war the US grand strategy in Asia would likely to be of containment.

Given the geographical layout in East Asia this would take the form of sea denial strategy whereby a hostile naval force is denied from gaining control of sea lanes of communication. Joint naval drill known as Malabar exercise conducted in the Bay of Bengal between foreign navies of QUAD in April 2021 augmented by France and ANNUALEX naval drill of QUAD members augmented by Canada and Germany near Philippines Sea in last October 2021 have far reaching impact in rallying multiple nations within QUAD umbrella. If QUAD navies become interoperable eventually they would be able to coerce China by threatening vital shipping lanes.

Above all in addition to the unmatched blue water navy of the US, QUAD member states have their territorial assets located at strategic choke points in South East Asia. In the west the Andaman and Nicobar Island offer India with launching pad to project naval power into the Strait of Malacca. Australian Territory of Cockatoo Island may be of enormous value in plugging the alternative route that run through the Sumbawa Strait and the Lombok Strait. In the east the US will cooperate with Japan taking advantage of Japan's Okinawa Island and existing informal ties with Taiwan to project power across East China Sea.

The U.S and Japan have to take leading role in enhancing cooperation in the region. Japan and India to a greater extent may extend support to Asian nations. Most of the ASEAN nations and QUAD members like India, Australia and USA are dependent on Chinese supply chain.  In modern geo-political race ideology matters less whereas economics matter more. It is the economic interest that refrained India and Bangladesh from voting against Russia in the UN General Assembly.

QUAD may consider taking over the Indo-Japanese Africa Asia Growth Corridor (AAGC) and take multiple initiative to enhance skills, infrastructure and development project. AAGC was co-visioned by Japan and India an outcome of growing convergence of interest between India and Japan to derive strategic benefit in the Indo-Pacific. Such initiative may enable countries in the region to reduce reliance on China and it will also counter balance China's BRI project.

Many see quad as a facet of great power rivalry. Until now everything is in vision and requires tangible execution if QUAD is to emerge as counter weight to China. QUAD needs to work to reassure that it is more than military counter weight to China. Until now QUAD members have agreed to advance shared vision and cooperation mitigate climate change, provisioning of Covid19 vaccine for the countries of the region and sharing technology to strengthen mutual relationship among QUAD member states.

As opposed to opportunities numerous challenges also lie ahead of QUAD.  Each of the key members of QUAD alliance has complex relation with China. Japan has the geographical proximity to the US and it is highly integrated to institutional and alliance system of US. On the other hand Japan has dispute with China on the question of Santiago Island. So, Japan needs to maintain delicate balance between security and economic prosperity and thus not likely to rock the boat easily. Australia understandably will remain loyal to pro-American strategy given the democratic value and its ongoing bitter relation with China caused by economic sanction imposed by Beijing. India's arch rival is Pakistan but not the China. So, India would prefer status quo with powerful neighbor China.

Even if all these differences are obliterated and QUAD develops into a stable coalition, still it needs to strengthen its ties with South East Asian nations and island to close the gap in its sea denial strategy. Taking Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines on board would add greater strategic weightage to the alliance.

China's relation with Myanmar has been the cause of prolong geopolitical instability in the region. Myanmar offers China an alternative route through overland for its access to the Indian Ocean. The ruling military junta of Myanmar taking advantage of its close ties with China has sealed the route to democracy in Myanmar and forced almost one and half million Ruhingya flee Myanmar to Bangladesh. Tokyo and India have close ties with Myanmar military government and they should make attempt to act counter balance over dependency of Myanmar on China.

There are opportunities and as well as enormous challenges before the nascent QUAD alliances. In order to emerge as a credible alliance and maintain balance of power in Asia Pacific the challenges must be faced squarely. Ultimately the balance of power is the scale of peace. If all these genuine concerns are not addressed properly; it would look like four partners sleeping in the same bed but dreaming differently. The US has to take the leading role in keeping ship of QUAD on an even keel for cruising through geopolitically turbulent Indo- Pacific Ocean.


Brig Gen (Rtd) Md Nurul Momen Khan is a proud member alumni association of National Defence College, Mirpur and George C. Marshall European Centerfor Security Studies, Germany.