Russia-Ukraine Conflict against Global Peace

 

Peace-loving people in the world do not support war. In this age of globalization, no matter where in the world war breaks out, its effects are felt directly or indirectly on the whole world.

As Russia began mobilizing troops on the Ukrainian border in late December, new tensions and negotiations erupted in the international political arena. Finally, ending all diplomacy and speculation, the Russian army invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Russian forces have stormed the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and are continuing their offensive. Putin has specific goals and objectives behind Russia's conduct of operations in Ukraine. Russia has demanded a six-point security guarantee from the United States at the start of its operation in Ukraine. But Washington has made it clear that none of the demands are acceptable to the 30-member NATO. Russia's main goal at the moment is to gain recognition for the two recently declared republics of Ukraine, Danetsk and Luhansk, and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But it is very difficult to achieve these two goals without taking control of Ukraine.

We know, In 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving the USA as the sole superpower. The Warsaw Treaty also came to an end, and NATO had no one to defend itself against. In his 1992 book, "The End of History and the Last Man," American political scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote that humanity had reached the endpoint of ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the ultimate form of human government. Many thought that NATO's reason for being was over, and it would soon become irrelevant, especially because it was formed with the Soviet Union as its stated enemy.

Due to war economic problems have been aggravated. Crude oil price reached USD 139 a barrel at one point-the highest level for almost 14 years-while wholesale gas prices for next-day delivery more than doubled. That will nicely feed into the corporate profit of the global oil giants.

Then, there is the lucrative European hydrocarbon market which Russia has long benefitted from. In 2021, Europe bought about 81 percent of all Russian exports. The sanctions imposed after Ukraine invasion will put a big dent in it. By contrast, for the USA, which is producing gas at a record level but doesn't have buyers, Europe is a potential customer that can pay premium prices once the Russian supply stops. The European Union has already signed a deal with the USA for purchasing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) that will significantly reduce its dependence on Russian supply. Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter. Russia accounts for 30-40 percent of Europe's energy. It is not possible to meet the deficit from any other country by stopping imports from Russia.

Putin now wants to rein in NATO's expansion since 1996. Putin claims that NATO was expanded without fulfilling the agreement reached in 1990 with Soviet Russia, the United States and European countries that NATO would no longer expand to the east. As soon as Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will fall under NATO military authority. Russia sees the NATO expansion as a security crisis. Despite the West's assertion that NATO will not be directly involved in the war if Ukraine is attacked, NATO member states continue to provide Ukraine with a variety of logistical support, including money and intelligence. Russia will increase its use of non-Western currencies for trade with countries such as India, its foreign minister said, as he hailed India as a friend that was not taking a "one-sided view" on the Ukraine war.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also said on a visit to India that Britain respected India's decision to buy discounted Russian oil, while advocating stringent sanctions on Russia relating to the ports, gold and energy sectors. China is critical of NATO's eastward expansion. Beijing can't miss that NATO is closing in on China's western borders and the Central Asian region. It is already wary of the recently formed Quad and the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the USA (AUKUS).

Countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa [ BRICS]  have something to say.  Needless to say, the world is about to enter a whole new political context once the Ukraine war is over. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked to both Russian President Putin and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky Twice. He talked to Japanese and Australian PM and explained Indian positions to solve the problems by negotiation. The leaders of the world also interacted and the UN passed resolutions for peace, democracy and sovereignty.   


Dr NC Bhowmik is an academic,
a former ambassador and
a freedom fighter.