Global Food Crisis Amid Greater Challenges

 

Wars have disrupted agriculture throughout history. But the nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine a war between two agricultural production powerhouses, in the context of globalized agricultural markets presents never-before-seen consequences for global agriculture and food security. Seven weeks into the war, the contours of these consequences are clear: exports from Ukraine have stalled, future harvests are in question, global prices of agriculture commodities have spiked, and most exposed are the countries that rely on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia to feed their citizens or fertilizer from Russia and Belarus to produce their own food. What can we expect in the coming months? What can be done to stave off the worst effects for Ukraine and the world? And what are the lessons for policymakers? Global agricultural markets have endured supply-side shocks and price spikes before. In 2007 and 2008, concurrent droughts in multiple food-exporting countries, food export bans by many more, and high energy prices caused the nominal price of food to double between 2002 and 2008, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Global undernourishment may have reached a 15-year high in 2020 due to the continued effects of climate change and regional conflict, on top of the economic and supply chain shocks of Covid-19. There is a positive link between food security and stability. Conversely, especially in a globalized era, armed conflicts can be a key driver of food insecurity that affects regions beyond the battlefield; the food crises of the past decade have laid bare the systemic challenges in fending off food insecurity in conflict settings.

These crises reveal why governments or belligerents lack either the capacity or the will to address them, and why humanitarian aid struggles to reach people in need. The current Russia-Ukraine war has both created new food insecurity and highlighted existing systemic weaknesses in international food security. Our fragile world is facing an impending global food crisis. As extreme weather and drought collide with the impact of the pandemic, war, and rising inflation, more and more people are facing food insecurity. Here’s how we’re mobilizing to meet the need. Food insecurity has been rising since 2018. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the increasing frequency and severity of climate shocks, regional conflicts and the pandemic were all taking their toll, disrupting food production and distribution, and driving up the cost of feeding people and families.

The situation took an even more dramatic turn with the war in Ukraine. This pushed the prices of food and fertilizers higher still-hurting importers and prompting several countries to impose export restrictions. For the global food supply chain, there are few worse countries to be at war than Russia and Ukraine. Together, the two provide almost 30% of the world’s wheat plus barley, sunflower seed oil and corn feeding billions of people. This war is tipping our fragile world toward mass hunger. Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus are two of the world’s top producers of potash, an ingredient in fertilizer. Farmers worldwide are affected. So with Russia’s exports blocked by many countries and Ukraine’s planting season impacted by the fighting, a huge supply of the world’s food is trapped or disrupted.

According to The World Bank, this hits poor and low-income countries hardest as they depend on food imports the most. Food has suddenly become very expensive. Trips to the supermarket and the gas station cost a lot more up to one-third and two-thirds more, respectively, according to the United Nations. The Russia-Ukraine war is worsening this inflation, making it even harder to get food at a decent price.With families in emerging economies spending an average of 25% of their budgets on food up to 40% in sub-Saharan Africa and 60% in Haiti the rising cost of living could place households with children in life or death situations. Food price increases are having devastating effects on the poorest and most vulnerable, says World Bank Group President David Malpass. Around 30 percent people in Bangladesh are facing food scarcity though the country's economy made a recovery from the pandemic-induced shocks, says a World Bank survey.

The number of people, who went to sleep hungry, almost doubled to 13 percent in May this year from 7 percent in June last year, according to the survey. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies said, Six percent of the people surveyed in May this year said they could not buy food. The figure was 5 percent in June last year. The number of those who didn't eat in 24 hours rose to 2 percent in May this year from 1 percent in June last year, the survey said. However, there has been a significant decrease in the number of people, who ate smaller meals, over the last one year. It fell to 9 percent in May this year from 17 percent in June last year. Presenting the keynote, Ayago Wambile said, Price increase is reported as a key challenge and impediment to food security.

Eight months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine two farming powerhouses has plunged a teetering global food system into full-blown catastrophe, leaving millions of people facing starvation. The war is exacerbating a crisis already fueled by climate change, soaring costs of living and a fertilizer price hike that is creating the most acute global food crisis in decades. A U.N.-brokered agreement to reopen the Black Sea for food ships may not be enough to bring relief to the millions of people struggling to eat across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Humanitarian agencies are scrambling to prepare themselves for even more critical levels of hunger, as they face a €14 billion annual gap in food security spending, according to a 2020 report by Ceres 2030, also a think tank. Moscow’s war in Europe’s breadbasket has severely rocked global food markets, forcing humanitarian agencies to slash food rations in countries like Yemen. Thirty-six countries rely on Ukraine and Russia for more than half of their wheat imports. A special U.N. crisis task force is monitoring more than 60 countries that are struggling to pay for food imports. High energy prices and volatility in the food markets have put extra pressure on cash-strapped developing countries. As more people grow hungry globally, the U.N. goal to end hunger by the end of the decade looks further than ever. Drought is gripping the Horn of Africa, leaving some 26 million people facing food shortages in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia over the next six months. More than 7 million livestock animals have already been wiped out. Across East Africa as a whole, some 50 million people are facing acute food insecurity. Seven years ago, world leaders committed to a highly ambitious target: ending hunger by 2030.

That goal is now more distant than ever. The United Nations estimates that the number of people in hunger emergencies just one step away from famine has jumped from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million. This week the UN humanitarian chief warned that famine is at the door in Somalia. Across the drought-ravaged Horn of Africa, 22 million are at risk of starvation. Almost a third of Pakistan is underwater, and as much as four-fifths of its livestock have died. In southern China, drought and a heatwave are putting crops at risk. These follow Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which affected supplies from two major exporters, and sent energy and fertilizer prices soaring.

 The UN World Food Program’s chief economist, has noted that the war itself did not create the crisis, but rather put a lot of fuel on an already burning fire. Multiple conflicts and climate shocks were already having an impact when the pandemic hit. Though its effects on food production were not as severe as many had feared, it depleted reserves and many have not recovered. It looks highly likely that 2023 will be worse.

Two-thirds of those affected by hunger last year were women  with the food security gap between women and men multiplying by 8.4 since 2018.The UN stresses that at the moment the issue is not supply but access and affordability. Globally, prices have risen by about 20% year-on-year (while food inflation stands at 33% in Iran and a staggering 122% in Lebanon). But production is an increasing concern. Fertilizer prices have soared by as much as 300% in some countries in Africa; wars and extreme weather are disrupting planting for next year’s crops.


Rayhan Ahmed Topader
is Researcher and Columnist.