ASEAN's 'Troika Model' on Myanmar Crisis

The 43rd ASEAN summit, Indonesia, in September, focused on a thorough reevaluation of the regional bloc's peace plan for Myanmar. Leaders of Southeast Asia have decided to establish a "troika mechanism" made up of the outgoing, incoming, and immediate past chairman of respective regional grouping. Among the two key decisions of the gathering, other one is to replace Myanmar with the Philippines for the 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship, forecasting the crisis will continue till then.

The two actions taken by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to analysts, "will ensure unity and continuity in handling the Myanmar issue while minimizing disruptions to the 10-member bloc's programs and activities."

Retno Marsudi, the foreign minister of Indonesia, said in a statement to reporters on Tuesday (Sep 5) that, "the leaders reiterated the need to stop the violence in Myanmar while agreeing to establish a troika mechanism that would allow the recent past, current, and incoming ASEAN chairs to manage the crisis together and in a continuous manner."

"Because everyone is aware that a year is not enough time for the situation to alter. In addition, the adoption of a troika system is required due to ASEAN's dedication to continually assisting the people of Myanmar", she said. "ASEAN leaders have also assessed the Five-Point Consensus' execution since it went into effect in April 2021 and determined that it should continue to serve as the primary framework for addressing the current political issue in Myanmar", she added.

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong referred to the troika as "an informal consultation mechanism" and said that it would resolve the issue of future chairmanships, particularly for 2026, while "allowing ASEAN to continue its important agenda, notwithstanding the troubled situation in Myanmar." The speaker said, "This is how ASEAN can maintain its future relevance and significance to our peoples by keeping together on important regional problems and providing major powers a meaningful interest in our region.

Since 2021 military coup in Myanmar, the centrality and credibility of ASEAN, as a key block in this region have been severely jeopardized. Critics argue that, ASEAN has once again demonstrated its flaws and has gone from political powerlessness to regional irrelevance.

Mahfud MD, the coordinating minister for political, legal, and security affairs of Indonesia asserts that, ASEAN suffers from the absence of meaningful progress in settling the Myanmar issue. Mahfud stated as much in his remarks at the beginning of the 27th ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) conference. "Our achievement in implementing the APSC 2025 blueprint is overshadowed by the lack of progress in resolving the issue of Myanmar," he said. ASEAN has been frequently urged by members of civil society to identify tactical and strategic ways to resolve the situation in Myanmar, including by proposing prosecutions for suspected abuses of human rights and even genocidal attacks on the Rohingya people.

Dinna Prapto Raharja, a foreign policy observer from Synergy Policies, claimed that the tens of millions of Myanmar citizens were extremely disappointed by ASEAN's decision, particularly Indonesia's decision to refrain from taking any extraordinary or tactical action in response to the decision of ASEAN leaders.

Consensus is one of ASEAN's two guiding principles, along with "non-interference," and was purposefully picked as the word to describe it. This effectively means that the bloc cannot intervene in a quarrel between member states or take any affirmative action against any of its members during a crisis.

Numerous such incidents have occurred since ASEAN's founding in 1967, including Indonesia's bloody invasion of East Timor in 1975, ongoing border disputes between Thailand and Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, and Malaysia and the Philippines, a cross-border insurgency involving Thailand and Malaysia, and even a string of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia from 2008 to 2011. The bloc did not address any of the issues or conflicts and continues to do so. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Min Aung Hlaing believed he could disregard the "consensus" and carry on his deadly assault against his junta's foes, the so-called State Administration Council (SAC).

As the ASEAN values of non-intervention and consensus-building, which limit its capacity to impose consequences on the military administration in Myanmar, have made it difficult for association members to develop a unified and practical strategy to the Myanmar problem.

Thus, the ASEAN need to work on its root, should make use of the gap in the ASEAN Charter's Article 20, that allows members to act unilaterally when the Charter is broken. Only then the 'Troika Model' or 'the 5PCs' can be affectively implemented.

On the other side, international actors should not exclusively rely on ASEAN; they need to wake up and take action to reduce tensions in Myanmar, including ending the civil war, repatriating the Rohingya, and creating democratic governance. Failing to help the millions of people in Myanmar would be a failing of humanity as a whole.


Nur Mohammad Sheikh is a
teacher and a security
affairs analyst.