Pakistan and Afghanistan ties today are at their worst. On December 23, after a gap of nearly 15 months, Pakistan dispatched a high-level delegation led by Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq, the country's special representative to Kabul. The visit was part of a renewed effort to reset troubled ties with Afghanistan.
Pakistan severed contacts with Afghanistan in the last 12 months apparently to put pressure on the interim Afghan government to prevail upon the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates. According to security experts, it even did not bother to appoint a special envoy for Afghanistan for several weeks after Ambassador Asif Durrani stepped down in September last year. Yet, the government and decision-makers revisited their strategy and convinced Ambassador Sadiq to rejoin as Pakistan's Afghan troubleshooter. Sadiq, a veteran diplomat,had previously served on the same position but quit having developed differences with the previous establishment on the policy of holding direct talks with the TTP. His return to the office of special envoy was meant to give diplomacy a chance. Within days of his appointment, Sadiq facilitated to arrange a meeting between Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and the Afghan acting Ambassador in Islamabad. He then travelled to Kabul, in order to break a long hiatus.
The visit was taking place at a time when terrorist attacks were on the rise. Just two days before his departure, terrorists ambushed a check post in South Waziristan, leaving 16 Pakistani soldiers dead by the TTP. Sadiq had a simple brief - to press the Taliban leadership to change their approach towards the TTP. On the first day he held constructive meetings with Afghan interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. Subsequently, he met with Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. However, on the night of December 24, an allegation was made by Afghanistan that Pakistan had carried out air strikes in Bermal district of Paktika province. Taliban further claimed that Pakistan bombed four different locations in the region, considered to be the stronghold of TTP and its affiliates. Pakistan on its part, said an Intelligence Based Operation (IBO) was conducted against terrorists in "border areas". On their part, Taliban condemned the strikes and even summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat in Kabul registering a strong protest. This all happened while Ambassador Sadiq was still in Kabul.
While still in Islamabad, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issued a strong statement, stating that Pakistan wished for improved ties with Afghanistan that was not possible when it’s western neighbour was harbouring terrorist outfits. This dual policy was not acceptable, he emphasized, saying that the TTP's presence across the border was Pakistan's red line. The same day the Pakistani Chief military spokesperson addressed a news conference reiterating Pakistan's stance that terrorist attacks were originating from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, security professionals and analysts maintain that relations with Afghanistan have become Pakistan's Achilles' heel. Pakistan hugely and glaringly celebrated the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, hoping that the change of government would help further its interests. But developments happening afterwards have only exacerbated Pakistan's troubles. Sources reveal that Pakistan, on an average, conducts 169 IBOs against terrorists per day. This year 925 terrorists were killed in those operations while 383 Pakistani security personnel were killed. The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies reported 856 attacks in 2024, surpassing 645 incidents recorded in 2023.The numbers reflect a clear peril for Pakistan and put the relationship with Afghanistan on a thin edge.
According to AL Jazeera, a sharp escalation in hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past has assumed serious proportions. This latest round of cross-border fighting stems from what Pakistan insisted was its response to regular attacks by the armed group TTP, which Islamabad said has found safe haven across the border in Afghanistan. The most recent TTP attack, on December 21, led to the deaths of at least 16 Pakistani soldiers.Pakistani military sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that on 24 December 2024, Pakistan launched air strikes in Afghanistan’s Paktia province, which borders Pakistan’s tribal district of South Waziristan.
It may be reiterated that for decades, Pakistan was considered a patron of the Afghan Taliban, who first came to power in 1996. Pakistan was believed to wield significant and considerable influence over the group, providing it with shelter, funding and diplomatic backing.After the United States-led invasion of Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, many Afghan Taliban leaders sought refuge in Pakistan. Amid American drone strikes in Pakistan’s border regions, the TTP, often called the Pakistan Taliban, emerged.
Both nations have now engaged in high-level diplomatic meetings over the past two years, including visits by Pakistan’s defence minister and chief of its intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in February last year.Later, Afghan Minister for Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi made a trip to Islamabad, where he also held talks with Army Chief Gen Asim Munir.These efforts notwithstanding, violence within Pakistan has continued unabated. According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Interior, more than 1,500 violent incidents in the first 10 months of this year killed at least 924 people, including 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians.
It is quite unlikely that the Taliban would accept any Pakistani demands for action against TTP leaders in Afghanistan’s border areas with Pakistan. Crucially, such action would disrupt the Taliban’s equilibrium with TTP and open space for other more extreme groups such as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The Taliban leaders are deploying the same logic that Pakistan used for nearly two decades, dismissing demands by the former Afghan government and the US to curb Taliban activities inside its territories. Like Pakistan then, the Taliban now argues that the TTP is an internal Pakistani issue and that Islamabad must resolve its problems internally.
The Pakistani army,as per an independent assessment,will most likely continue bombing the Afghan territory with impunity, faced only with minor international condemnation. Pakistani army, as the long-term “guardian of security” in the country, is under tremendous pressure to demonstrate tangible action in countering militancy and protecting the country’s infrastructure, including Chinese-invested economic projects in Baluchistan. Attacking Afghan territory allows for political signal to the Pakistani population.
In sum, Pakistan-Afghanistan ties have reached a nadir and as of now showing no signs of any improvement and on the contrary, raises chances of heightened hostility in the near foreseeable future.
Shantanu Mukharji is a
retired IPS officer and former National Security Advisor
in Mauritius.
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