Climate-Induced Displacement in Southern Bangladesh: Understanding the Crisis and Strategies for Future

Bangladesh, a country cradled in the delta of three mighty rivers, stands today at the forefront of climate vulnerability. Despite contributing minimally to global carbon emissions, it is among the nations most affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. Nowhere is this crisis more acute than in the southern coastal belt, where rising sea levels, cyclones, floods, and salinity intrusion are displacing hundreds of thousands of people each year.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and World Bank highlight that climate change poses an existential threat to Bangladesh due to its geographic location, dense population, and economic reliance on agriculture and fisheries. Coastal areas such as Khulna, Bagerhat, and Satkhira are experiencing more frequent and intense cyclones, increasing salinity, tidal flooding, and river erosion. According to the World Bank's Groundswell Report, up to 13.3 million people in Bangladesh could become internal climate migrants by 2050 under high-emission scenarios—a staggering figure that underscores the urgency of the issue.

Displacement in Bangladesh is driven by both sudden-onset disasters, such as cyclones and flash floods, and slow-onset changes, including sea-level rise and salinization of freshwater sources. These phenomena have direct impacts—destroying homes and infrastructure—and indirect effects, such as the loss of livelihoods and deterioration of health conditions. Farmers are unable to grow crops on increasingly saline land, and fishers losing access to freshwater fisheries often migrate out of necessity rather than choice.

Climate-induced displacement is not a one-time occurrence but a repetitive process that can become permanent when recovery is no longer feasible. For many, each disaster reduces their capacity to return and rebuild, pushing them further toward urban poverty or insecure informal settlements.

The southern coastal region has faced repeated hits from powerful cyclones. These storms not only displace people temporarily but also degrade land quality and infrastructure, making return increasingly untenable. Additionally, riverbank erosion and waterlogging, worsened by poorly maintained embankments, continue to uproot families year after year. In recent decades, Bangladesh has witnessed a noticeable increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, particularly affecting the southern coastal belt. Historical data show that in the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries, major cyclones were sporadic, striking once every few decades. However, in the 20th and 21st centuries, the frequency has alarmingly increased. Cyclones such as Sidr (2007), Aila (2009), Mahasen (2013), Bulbul (2019), Amphan (2020), and most recently, Remal (2024) have occurred in rapid succession, often within gaps of just 1–2 years. These storms have caused widespread destruction, claiming thousands of lives, displacing millions, and devastating infrastructure and agricultural lands. According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and global climate studies, rising sea surface temperatures linked to climate change are fueling stronger and more frequent cyclonic events. The cumulative impact on life, livelihoods, and physical infrastructure is immense, with each cyclone further eroding the coping capacity of already vulnerable coastal communities.

In addition to rising sea levels and frequent cyclones, increasing temperatures in Bangladesh—particularly across southern coastal regions—are significantly intensifying climate vulnerability. Data show that average temperatures in these areas have been steadily rising over the past few decades, contributing to prolonged heatwaves and shifting rainfall patterns. This warming trend directly exacerbates salinity intrusion into freshwater sources, especially during the dry season when surface water becomes scarce and groundwater turns increasingly saline. As a result, access to safe drinking water has become a major challenge in districts like Satkhira, Khulna, and Barguna, where families are often forced to walk long distances to collect potable water. The heat stress combined with water scarcity, not only affects health and hygiene but also limits agricultural activities and deteriorates living conditions. Together, these stressors are prompting increasing numbers of people to abandon their homesteads and migrate to urban slums or higher ground in search of more viable living environments.

Recent estimates suggest that by 2050, one in every 45 people globally and one in every seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced due to climate change. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reports that more than 4.7 million people were displaced by disasters in Bangladesh between 2008 and 2014. According to IDMC’s mid-year figures for 2019, approximately 1.7 million people were evacuated across 23 districts in Bangladesh, predominantly in coastal areas such as Bhola, Khulna, and Patuakhali.

A projection by RMMRU and SCMR, based on the 2013 population census, estimates that between 2011 and 2050, as many as 16 to 26 million people may be forced to leave their places of origin in Bangladesh due to various climate-related hazards. These population movements would primarily involve internal displacement and other forms of labour migration within the country.

A study by Displacement Solutions found that the principal driver of displacement in Bangladesh’s coastal regions is the rising height of tidal waters, which causes tidal flooding. Tropical cyclones and storm surges were identified as secondary causes. The study further suggests that sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is likely to exacerbate these conditions and could submerge up to 13 percent of Bangladesh’s coastal land by 2080. One of the most critical and immediate consequences of SLR is the intrusion of salinity into cultivable land, soil, and freshwater sources, severely affecting the agro-based livelihoods of coastal populations. This salinization is a major trigger for displacement in these areas. In contrast, riverbank erosion and riverine flooding are the primary causes of displacement in mainland regions.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), an average of 700,000 people are displaced annually in Bangladesh due to climate-related disasters, particularly floods, cyclones, and riverbank erosion. Many of these people originate from the vulnerable coastal belts. The World Bank’s Groundswell Report estimates that internal displacement due to climate factors may exceed 13.3 million by 2050, disproportionately affecting southern coastal districts. These communities are among the most vulnerable not only because of their exposure to hazards but also due to limited resources and adaptation options.

Displaced families often move to nearby towns such as Barisal, Khulna City, or even to slums in Dhaka and Chattogram. However, these urban areas are ill-equipped to handle the influx. Many displaced people end up in overcrowded and under-resourced informal settlements where they face a lack of access to clean water, sanitation, healthcare, education, and secure housing. Employment opportunities are typically in the informal sector, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation. Social integration remains difficult, especially for rural migrants who struggle to adapt to urban life and face discrimination or exclusion.

Bangladesh has taken commendable steps by developing the National Strategy on the Management of Disaster and Climate-Induced Internal Displacement (2021). This document outlines preventive, protective, and durable solutions across different phases of displacement. On the international front, frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Global Compact on Migration, and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage offer some guidance but lack enforceability and strong support mechanisms.

In addition to the National Strategy on the Management of Disaster and Climate-Induced Internal Displacement (2021), several key policy and strategic frameworks in Bangladesh—such as the Disaster Management Act 2012, the Standing Orders on Disaster (SoD) 2019, the National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM) 2021-2025, Humanitarian Coordination Task  Team ( HCTT) Nexus Strategy ( 2021 – 2025) and the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009—are also aligned with issues related to displacement.

The Government of Bangladesh has begun to officially acknowledge climate-induced migration and displacement in policy discussions and planning efforts. Notably, during the pre-COP 27 National Consultation on Climate Change and Human Mobility, the Bangladesh Parliamentarians’ Caucus on Migration and Development, together with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and other partners, emphasized the growing role of climate change as a key driver of internal displacement. They highlighted the need to integrate climate migration into national development policies and created an outcome document intended for international advocacy at COP 27. Additionally, IOM’s "Knowledge for All (K4A): Climate Migration in Bangladesh" project is supporting the government in developing the first-ever Migration, Environment, and Climate Change Profile for Bangladesh. This national-level document aims to provide comprehensive guidance to policymakers and government stakeholders to address climate-driven migration more effectively. These efforts show that the government, in collaboration with international bodies, is increasingly recognizing and responding to the growing issue of climate-induced migration in both strategic dialogue and policy development.

The Government of Bangladesh has initiated several projects to support climate-affected populations, utilizing both national and international funding mechanisms—such as the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) and the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF)—to address the impacts of climate change. Among the most notable is Ashrayan-3, a large-scale housing project in Cox’s Bazar designed for displaced coastal communities. Other initiatives include the Coastal Embankment Improvement Project (CEIP) and the Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (MDSP), supported by international agencies like the World Bank.

However, these initiatives often place a strong emphasis on infrastructure development, with limited attention given to social rehabilitation. In many cases, displaced communities are not meaningfully involved in decision-making processes. As a result, some individuals choose to return to unsafe areas rather than remain in poorly planned or inadequate resettlement sites.

Bangladesh, being one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, has actively positioned itself to access the Loss and Damage Fund established under the UNFCCC framework, especially after the landmark operationalization agreement at COP28. The country has aligned its policy frameworks with international climate finance mechanisms, enabling it to benefit from key funding instruments such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF). As of COP28, more than USD 661 million has been pledged globally for the Loss and Damage Fund, and Bangladesh is advocating for priority access as a highly affected nation. The government has also submitted several project proposals under the GCF, focusing on both mitigation (e.g., renewable energy transition) and adaptation (e.g., coastal resilience and early warning systems). Despite progress, reports highlight that access remains slow and complex, and actual disbursement falls short of what is needed to address the escalating impacts of climate change in Bangladesh’s coastal belt.

Non-governmental organizations have filled many of the gaps left by state-led initiatives. Organizations like Caritas Bangladesh, BRAC, COAST Trust and Shushilan have implemented holistic models that integrate housing, education, healthcare, and livelihood support. Community-led initiatives, such as floating agriculture and women-led disaster preparedness planning, show promise as sustainable, culturally appropriate solutions.

Internationally, there are valuable examples to learn from. India’s Odisha Resettlement Policy, Vietnam’s mangrove restoration efforts, and Philippines’ disaster-resilient urban planning provide potential blueprints for a rights-based approach to climate adaptation.

Like many other NGOs, Caritas Bangladesh has been at the forefront of addressing climate-induced displacement through integrated and sustainable interventions at both the places of origin and destination. In vulnerable coastal regions, Caritas promotes climate-resilient agriculture by introducing salt-, flood-, and drought-tolerant crop varieties, supporting organic farming, and expanding renewable energy solutions such as solar power, biogas, and improved cooking stoves. It facilitates sustainable livelihoods through skill development, Savings and Internal lending Communities (SILC) approach, women-led entrepreneurship, and the establishment of community-based food and seed banks, Women Business & Information Dissemination Centres (WBICs), and Farmers’ Field Schools. To address the root causes of displacement, Caritas—like in its other nine DRR projects—has been focusing on building disaster-resilient infrastructure under the Caritas Germany and BMZ-supported DRR and CCA projects. These efforts include constructing low-cost housing, elevating roads, repairing multipurpose disaster shelters, and strengthening local disaster management committees. At destination points such as urban slums, Caritas provides need-based support to climate migrants, promotes their safe integration, and engages in policy advocacy to secure their rights and resilience. Together, these initiatives reflect a holistic, rights-based approach to climate displacement, blending humanitarian assistance with long-term development and adaptation strategies.

In addressing the challenges of climate-induced displacement in southern Bangladesh, several strategic recommendations can be made for key stakeholders, including the government, non-government sectors, the private sector, and civil society.

The government of Bangladesh should prioritize integrating climate displacement into urban planning, ensuring resilient infrastructure in cities and informal settlements. District-level localization of strategies—as outlined in the National Strategy for Disaster and Climate-Induced Internal Displacement—will enable context-specific responses. Strengthening institutional capacity to access international climate finance (e.g., Green Climate Fund, Loss and Damage Fund) is essential. The government must also involve affected communities in resettlement planning, enhance early warning systems, and reinforce embankments in vulnerable coastal zones. Establishing a comprehensive database of displaced populations is essential to ensure timely and effective support, particularly for accessing government social safety net programs, especially when displacement occurs across different geographical locations within Bangladesh.

NGOs and INGOs should promote adaptive livelihoods through climate-resilient agriculture and income diversification. They should support community-led, culturally sensitive relocation efforts and advocate for recognition of climate-induced displacement in national and international frameworks. Replicating successful models from countries like India and Vietnam and investing in pilot projects can also foster resilience. NGOs and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) should actively advocate for the rights and entitlements of displaced populations, ensuring their issues are recognized and addressed in national and international policy agendas.

The private sector can contribute through investment in green infrastructure, climate-resilient housing, and sustainable public-private partnerships. Creating inclusive employment for displaced youth and women, expanding access to microloans and weather-indexed insurance, and engaging in CSR initiatives focused on community resilience are also vital contributions.

Civil society plays a critical role in raising awareness, educating communities on climate justice and adaptation, and amplifying the voices of displaced individuals. Documenting personal narratives, advocating for stronger social safety nets, and holding authorities accountable through citizen monitoring can ensure effective program implementation.

Collaborative efforts among all stakeholders are essential to building a more resilient Bangladesh where those displaced by climate change can rebuild their lives with dignity and security.

 
Inmanuel Chayan Biswas is
Program Officer, Disaster
Management, Caritas Bangladesh.