Published: 06:00 PM, 12 June 2025
Bangladesh in Transition: Can Dr. Yunus and Tarique Rahman Pull Back From The Brink?
Sabir Mustafa
Is Bangladesh in some sort of political crisis? Not quite. But the interim government headed by Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus seems to be making every effort to snatch chaos from the jaws of peaceful transition.
It has been 10 months since the Awami League government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was toppled by mass protests across the country, but political uncertainty continues to grip this nation of 170 million.
After dragging his feet for months, Yunus recently announced that national elections will be held in the ‘first half of April, 2026.’ This has taken the pressure off him for the time being, but has not gone down well with everyone.
In particular, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has reacted sharply and reiterated its demand to hold the polls in December, 2025. Their top leader Tarique Rahman (son of party chairperson and 3-time former prime minister Khaleda Zia) is scheduled to meet Yunus at the Dorchester Hotel in London on Friday, the 13th of June.
While the date is rather ominous - in the context of European folklore - many in Bangladesh are hoping the meeting will clear the air between the interim government and the BNP. Political observers in Dhaka feel some sort of compromise between the two is essential in order for the country to move forward peacefully.
“Rivalry and conflict will inevitably lead to catastrophe,” Mrs Zia’s former press secretary Maruf Kamal Khan wrote in his Facebook page, urging the BNP leadership to choose the path of compromise. “Tarique Rahman needs to decide future path in light of reality and not emotions.”
Much will depend on whether Tarique Rahman can persuade Muhammad Yunus to bring the election date forward to December. After all, Yunus absolutely needs the BNP’s full cooperation to make the transition smooth (and his own exit safe.)
For Rahman, who quite belligerently announced at BNP’s recent public rallies that elections WILL be held in December, any other date will look like a climbdown and hurt his “uncompromising” image.
On the other hand, does Yunus have some cards up his sleeve to pressure Rahman into relenting?
The very fact that Rahman still has not returned to Bangladesh, even after his convictions in criminal cases have been cleared by the courts and pending charges dismissed, shows he has something to fear or needs assurances for his safety. If Yunus holds the key to those assurances, then the compromise could take a different shape.
If the past 10 months are any indication, the future path is likely to be challenging, even if things go well on Friday.
Yunus had earlier drawn the BNP’s ire by suggesting, while answering a question at the Nikkei Forum in Tokyo on May 29, that “not all parties, only one party is talking about elections in December.”
It turned out that quite a few parties were demanding elections in December, not just the BNP.
It is also not judicious to be dismissive about the BNP in the current circumstances. The BNP, which was formed by military strongman General Ziaur Rahman in 1978, is not just another party. They are undoubtedly the biggest political force currently active in Bangladesh.
The Awami League, which led Bangladesh to independence in 1971 is facing one of the worst crises in its 77-year history. The party practically went underground after the Bangladesh military arranged safe passage for Hasina on August 5 last year and flew her to Delhi where she currently resides.
Dozens of AL leaders, former ministers and parliament members are currently in jail, many without formal charges and hundreds more are facing criminal cases.
The Yunus government on May 10 banned all activities of the AL following several days of protests by hundreds of regime supporters and allied Islamist groups in Dhaka. Two days later, the Election Commission followed suit and suspended the party’s registration, effectively barring it from the next general elections.
These two parties have dominated Bangladesh politics for nearly half a century. Now, with Awami League forced out of the picture, the BNP sees itself as the most logical candidate for power.
Whether one agrees with BNP’s policies or not, such as their periodic sabre-rattling aimed at India or their past flirtations with hard-line Islamist parties; or whether one is comfortable with the BNP’s legacy of the infamous “Hawa Bhabon” era (2001-06) when corruption became synonymous with the name of the country, one would find it well nigh impossible to dismiss the party’s importance in ensuring the current and future stability of Bangladesh.
The BNP has doggedly campaigned for elections under caretaker regimes ever since such an arrangement was deleted from the constitution in 2011 by the Awami League. They boycotted two of the three parliament elections held since the caretaker system was abolished, and suffered extraordinary oppression as a result.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that the BNP did far more than any other party to expose the fraudulent nature of these three polls and build public opinion against Hasina.
It is important to note that, throughout the tough decade (2014-2024), the BNP never attempted to “seize” power by toppling Hasina. Their demand throughout these years was for Hasina to step down and hand over power to a non-partisan caretaker government whose main task would be to organise free and fair elections.
They envisaged something similar to what happened in December 1990 when the military strongman General HM Ershad was forced to resign in the face of protests led by students. The major parties did not try to seize power. They persuaded the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Shahabuddin Ahmed to become Acting President and head an interim government to guide the country back towards electoral democracy.
Less than three months after assuming power, Justice Ahmed oversaw a highly-competitive elections free of rigging. The polls on February 27, 1991 were fair and inclusive to the extent that the deposed and disgraced Jatiyo Party of General Ershad not only took part in the polls, they managed to secure 12 per cent of the votes and 35 seats in the 300-member parliament.
Given this background, it is hardly surprising that, from last August onwards, the BNP has been pressing for holding of free and fair elections under an impartial government. Their time-frame has evolved as the interim government has struggled to come to grips with the law and order situation and lack of business confidence in the economy, which has seen the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank both slash growth projections to below 4 per cent.
Initially the BNP called for polls within 6 months, which eventually extended to December, 2025.
The earlier dilly-dallying raised concerns that the unelected interim government was planning to stay in power indefinitely. These concerns were bolstered by comments by some members of Yunus’s cabinet where they talked about elections as being their third priority - after institutional reforms and trial of former regime figures for the killings of July-August last year.
“We did not take charge just to hold elections,” Syeda Rizwana Hasan, a member of the cabinet, told reporters on May 23.
The reform process and trials could take months. There is no ‘end-by’ date attached to them, which is why Yunus’s earlier insistence that his government would not stay in power a day longer than June 30 did not meet with universal trust. Bringing the likely date forward to middle of April has not done enough to sway all doubts.
There is another element of distrust which could be driving the BNP to press for elections at an earlier date. The recent launch of a new political party - the National Citizens’ Party or NCP - was welcomed by all political observers and most parties, but a cloud in the silver lining was also noted by some.
By definition, an interim government holding elections needs to be non-partisan and have zero stake in the outcome of the vote. But the NCP is seen by some almost as the new “ruling party.” And with good reasons too.
The party was launched by some of the student leaders who spearheaded the protests last July-August which overthrew Hasina. So far so good. But these are the same leaders Yunus had described as his “employers.” In a televised address to the nation, Yunus had gone so far as to say his government would stay in power as long as the students wanted.
Three of these student leaders were inducted into the interim government and given various portfolios. But they were clearly seen as the key policy-makers when it came to political decisions. One of these three, Nahid Islam left the cabinet to become the top leader of NCP. But the two who remained, Asif Mahmud and Mahfuj Alam, continued to be seen - despite denials - as the NCP’s men in government.
While the NCP is getting significant media coverage - largely due to their leaders’ role in last year’s protests - the party has failed to make a big splash. There are controversies about the opaque nature of their funding and their closeness to hard-line Islamist parties. The party leadership also does not seem cohesive.
Despite its high-profile presence in the media, the NCP is not seen by many as an electoral game-changer. Their public events attract barely anyone other than some hardcore young activists. But delay in holding elections could give some time to the party to organise in the constituencies and become a serious contender.
The new party may even be looking to benefit from local elections. Some elements in the interim government have been pressing for local elections before national polls. The BNP has opposed that, quite vehemently. They probably fear that local elections could be manipulated by the government to give their preferred candidates (NCP’s? ) an advantage.
Success at local government polls would give NCP and their Islamist allies a much better shot at parliamentary elections. Clearly, the BNP would want to prevent that.
Sabir Mustafa is a senior journalist based in the UK. He worked for BBC and Voice of America during his professional career. Courtesy: Substack.com
