Published: 04:26 PM, 08 September 2025
China’s Upstream Power Play: The Mekong River Crisis and Regional Fallout
This aerial photo taken on May 25, 2025 shows the Ruak river from (L) meeting with the Mekong River (R) in the Golden Triangle region in northern Thailand’s Chiang Rai province, with Thailand on left, Myanmar in centre, Laos on right. A sprawling new mine is gouged into the lush rolling hills of northeast Myanmar, where civil war has weakened the government’s already feeble writ, and pollution levels are rising downstream in Thailand---(Photo: AFP)
The Mekong River, Southeast Asia’s lifeline, originates in China’s Tibetan Plateau and winds its way through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam nourishing ecosystems, economies, and cultures across a 4,800-kilometre stretch. It is the world’s largest inland fishery, supporting over 70 million people, with 75 percent of the lower basin’s population relying directly on fishing and farming. Yet this vital artery is being throttled at its source by China.
China has constructed a series of massive dams on the upper Mekong (known domestically as the Lancang), exercising unilateral control over water flows with little regard for downstream consequences. These dams are not just engineering feats, they are geopolitical tools. By manipulating water levels, China has repeatedly disrupted seasonal flows, exacerbated droughts, and destabilized the economies of its neighbours. Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam are all feeling the squeeze.
This upstream dominance is part of Beijing’s broader assertive strategy: using infrastructure and resource control to project power, sideline regional cooperation, and bypass international norms. Despite calls for transparency and equitable water sharing, China refuses to join the Mekong River Commission as a full member and routinely withholds hydrological data. Its Lancang-Mekong Cooperation initiative, launched in 2016, is widely seen as a mechanism to fragment regional consensus and entrench Chinese influence.
The consequences are profound. Hydropower development has turned the once free-flowing Mekong into a fragmented system, with cascading effects on agriculture, fisheries, and small-scale industries. Fish migration routes are blocked, sediment flows are disrupted, and riverbank erosion is accelerating. The Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia, once a biological treasure, is shrinking, threatening food security and biodiversity.
Sand mining, particularly in Cambodia and Vietnam, adds another layer of destruction. Driven by construction booms, extraction rates far exceed natural replenishment. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta alone loses over 43 million cubic metres of sand annually, up to 17 times the rate of renewal. This depletes riverbeds, lowers water levels, and undermines the region’s agricultural productivity.
Climate change compounds the crisis. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts intensified by dam-induced flow alterations are reshaping the river’s hydrology. The annual flood pulse, essential for sediment distribution and aquatic life cycles, is weakening. By 2050, the flooded area in the Tonle Sap basin may shrink by 11 percent, slashing sedimentation and aquatic primary production by up to 59 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Soil fertility and fish stocks will decline, hitting the poorest communities hardest.
Hydropower, once touted as a clean energy solution, is proving economically and ecologically disastrous. Studies show that the loss of fisheries, sediment, biodiversity, and livelihoods outweigh the benefits of electricity generation and irrigation. The gains flow to urban elites, developers, and financiers; the losses are borne by rural populations, especially women who depend on river resources for subsistence and income.
Human security is at stake. Environmental degradation, displacement, and livelihood losses are pushing communities to the brink. The Mekong’s transformation from a shared resource to a contested frontier is fuelling inequality and instability. China’s refusal to respect international law and its disregard for transboundary governance norms only deepen the crisis.
Institutional frameworks like the Asian Development Bank’s Greater Mekong Subregion Initiative (GMS) and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) have struggled to counterbalance China’s dominance. The GMS, launched in 1992, aimed to foster peace through connectivity and development. But its liberal vision is being undermined by China’s strategic infrastructure diplomacy. The Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, in contrast, prioritizes bilateral deals and opaque decision-making, sidelining regional consensus.
What’s needed is a paradigm shift. Policymakers must recognize the ecological value of the Mekong’s natural flow and invest in sustainable alternatives like solar and wind power. Transparent data sharing, inclusive decision-making, and genuine consultation with riparian communities are essential. Without these reforms, the Mekong risks becoming a cautionary tale of environmental collapse and geopolitical coercion.
China’s upstream dam-building is not just a technical issue, it’s a political statement. By weaponizing water, Beijing is asserting dominance over its neighbours, disregarding ecological limits and international norms. The Mekong’s fate is a litmus test for regional resilience, cooperation, and the future of shared natural resources in an era of rising authoritarianism.
Written by: Sun Lee (The author is the pseudonym for a writer who covers Asia and geopolitical affairs.)
>> Source: Mizzima
