Published: 11:29 PM, 10 September 2025
India's Strategic Autonomy: Lessons & Leverage from U.S. Decline
”India now needs to persevere with reform, enhance resource security, build technological independence, proactively ensure regional stability, and aggressively pursue dedollarization”
Recent years have shown a profound transformation in the international order, one in which India's pursuit of great power status increasingly hinges on undergoing the complex challenges presented by Western decline and multipolar resurgence. The impact of Donald Trump's presidency, while often controversial and disruptive, has unwittingly served as a strategic catalyst for Indian policy, prompting the nation's leadership to confront old certainties and embrace a higher degree of risk-taking. Rather than viewing the turbulence of U.S.–India relations as detrimental, a clear-eyed assessment reveals this period has been uniquely empowering for India’s ambitions of global prominence.
From tariffs to aggressive diplomacy, Trump's policies pushed India into reassessing its own vulnerabilities and alliances. The realization that faith in a strategic partnership with a declining United States could ultimately be misplaced has led New Delhi to foster a culture of independent thinking within its establishment. India's progress toward great power stature depends primarily on bold institutional reforms, holistic economic liberalization, resource security, technological independence, and strategic assertiveness. These goals now increasingly appear at odds with Washington's vision for Asia.
The trend towards dedollarization, especially with Global South partners, epitomizes India's recalibration. The Reserve Bank of India has signed currency swap agreements with more than twenty nations, including Japan, Russia, and several African states, to insulate trade from dollar volatility. The BRICS grouping recently announced initiatives to develop a common payment system, seeking alternatives to SWIFT and the dollar for cross-border transactions. These moves represent a global wave; in 2022, almost a quarter of Russia-China trade was settled in local currencies, compared to virtually none a decade earlier. Decoupling from dollar dependency is essential not only economically but also strategically, as reliance on dollar and SWIFT systems has often been used as instruments of Western coercion.
In terms of domestic transformation, India continues with ambitious reforms. The Goods and Services Tax, now five years old, has considerably broadened the tax base and increased efficiency, although challenges remain in its implementation. Major sectors such as telecommunications, power, and banking are seeing gradual deregulation, which is driving innovation and growth. The Indian technology sector is making significant strides toward self-reliance. By 2025, Indian startups are expected to attract one hundred billion dollars in investment, double the level from 2020. Initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat have fueled record indigenous production of electronics and pharmaceuticals. The Indian space program, led by ISRO, stands as a powerful symbol of homegrown research and development capacity.
Resource security is a cornerstone of India's ambitions for geopolitical autonomy. The country faces acute shortages in critical minerals required for digital and energy revolutions, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. To address these challenges, New Delhi has pursued mining partnerships with Australia, Mongolia, and Latin American states, aiming to diversify supply while also developing domestic refining abilities. In the energy sector, India's shift from predominantly Middle Eastern oil to renewable sources, combined with collaborative projects with France and the UAE, has decreased vulnerability to supply disruptions. In 2024, solar power accounted for nearly seventeen percent of India's installed energy capacity, a substantial increase from less than four percent in 2015. This positions India as the world’s third-largest solar market, a testament to its successful hedging against imported energy volatility.
Militarily, India is increasingly focused on achieving technological and strategic parity with China. The defence budget rose more than sixteen percent in 2025, reflecting the steepest annual increase in a decade. Key projects such as the Rafale fighter acquisition, indigenous missile development, and submarine fleet expansion underscore the country’s resolve to control its regional environment and credibly respond to Chinese assertiveness. India is also deepening military partnerships with countries like Australia, France, and members of ASEAN to enhance its role as a security provider beyond South Asia.
Regional stability is the crucial factor for attaining great power status. Western and Chinese proxies in neighboring Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka complicate India's security framework. The recent crisis in Sri Lanka was a case where intervention by both the United States and China threatened escalation, yet Indian diplomacy played a central role in resolving tensions. Indian foreign policy is increasingly moving away from subordination to external powers in favor of unilateral action or diplomatic assertiveness, reinventing nonalignment for the era of multialignment.
These strategic adjustments must be evaluated against ongoing transformations within the United States itself. The American share of global GDP has fallen to less than a quarter in recent years, down from thirty-nine percent in the 1960s, while public debt has reached levels not seen since the mid-twentieth century. The median age in the United States now stands at thirty-nine, up sharply from twenty-eight in 1970, bringing fiscal and demographic stresses that undermine global competitiveness. Domestic discontent, political polarization, and declining public trust, captured in surveys by the Pew Research Center are at historic lows. The value of the dollar as the reserve currency faces new scrutiny due to inflation and its use in financial sanctions.
India’s growth story is rooted in a nuanced, sometimes uneasy, relationship with the United States. While economic and technological cooperation remains valuable, these ties must be shaped in a way that reinforces strategic autonomy. American efforts to hold onto global primacy by means of technology denial and economic pressure are likely to increase, making genuine multialignment and internal liberalization essential for India. Imagining an “Indian century” necessitates strong vision and disciplined execution across economic, technological, military, and diplomatic domains. Trump’s presidency, with its unapologetic transactionalism and preference for unilateral action, forced India to confront its expectations of Western partnership and hastened its progress toward self-determined greatness.
India now needs to persevere with reform, enhance resource security, build technological independence, proactively ensure regional stability, and aggressively pursue dedollarization. The risks involved are significant, but the potential rewards are immense. India's test will be whether it can convert strategic freedom into lasting power, shaping a multipolar world where its interests are fully represented. If the current momentum continues, the future of global leadership could well be Indian.
>> Source: News Bomb
Recent years have shown a profound transformation in the international order, one in which India's pursuit of great power status increasingly hinges on undergoing the complex challenges presented by Western decline and multipolar resurgence. The impact of Donald Trump's presidency, while often controversial and disruptive, has unwittingly served as a strategic catalyst for Indian policy, prompting the nation's leadership to confront old certainties and embrace a higher degree of risk-taking. Rather than viewing the turbulence of U.S.–India relations as detrimental, a clear-eyed assessment reveals this period has been uniquely empowering for India’s ambitions of global prominence.
From tariffs to aggressive diplomacy, Trump's policies pushed India into reassessing its own vulnerabilities and alliances. The realization that faith in a strategic partnership with a declining United States could ultimately be misplaced has led New Delhi to foster a culture of independent thinking within its establishment. India's progress toward great power stature depends primarily on bold institutional reforms, holistic economic liberalization, resource security, technological independence, and strategic assertiveness. These goals now increasingly appear at odds with Washington's vision for Asia.
The trend towards dedollarization, especially with Global South partners, epitomizes India's recalibration. The Reserve Bank of India has signed currency swap agreements with more than twenty nations, including Japan, Russia, and several African states, to insulate trade from dollar volatility. The BRICS grouping recently announced initiatives to develop a common payment system, seeking alternatives to SWIFT and the dollar for cross-border transactions. These moves represent a global wave; in 2022, almost a quarter of Russia-China trade was settled in local currencies, compared to virtually none a decade earlier. Decoupling from dollar dependency is essential not only economically but also strategically, as reliance on dollar and SWIFT systems has often been used as instruments of Western coercion.
In terms of domestic transformation, India continues with ambitious reforms. The Goods and Services Tax, now five years old, has considerably broadened the tax base and increased efficiency, although challenges remain in its implementation. Major sectors such as telecommunications, power, and banking are seeing gradual deregulation, which is driving innovation and growth. The Indian technology sector is making significant strides toward self-reliance. By 2025, Indian startups are expected to attract one hundred billion dollars in investment, double the level from 2020. Initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat have fueled record indigenous production of electronics and pharmaceuticals. The Indian space program, led by ISRO, stands as a powerful symbol of homegrown research and development capacity.
Resource security is a cornerstone of India's ambitions for geopolitical autonomy. The country faces acute shortages in critical minerals required for digital and energy revolutions, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. To address these challenges, New Delhi has pursued mining partnerships with Australia, Mongolia, and Latin American states, aiming to diversify supply while also developing domestic refining abilities. In the energy sector, India's shift from predominantly Middle Eastern oil to renewable sources, combined with collaborative projects with France and the UAE, has decreased vulnerability to supply disruptions. In 2024, solar power accounted for nearly seventeen percent of India's installed energy capacity, a substantial increase from less than four percent in 2015. This positions India as the world’s third-largest solar market, a testament to its successful hedging against imported energy volatility.
Militarily, India is increasingly focused on achieving technological and strategic parity with China. The defence budget rose more than sixteen percent in 2025, reflecting the steepest annual increase in a decade. Key projects such as the Rafale fighter acquisition, indigenous missile development, and submarine fleet expansion underscore the country’s resolve to control its regional environment and credibly respond to Chinese assertiveness. India is also deepening military partnerships with countries like Australia, France, and members of ASEAN to enhance its role as a security provider beyond South Asia.
Regional stability is the crucial factor for attaining great power status. Western and Chinese proxies in neighboring Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka complicate India's security framework. The recent crisis in Sri Lanka was a case where intervention by both the United States and China threatened escalation, yet Indian diplomacy played a central role in resolving tensions. Indian foreign policy is increasingly moving away from subordination to external powers in favor of unilateral action or diplomatic assertiveness, reinventing nonalignment for the era of multialignment.
These strategic adjustments must be evaluated against ongoing transformations within the United States itself. The American share of global GDP has fallen to less than a quarter in recent years, down from thirty-nine percent in the 1960s, while public debt has reached levels not seen since the mid-twentieth century. The median age in the United States now stands at thirty-nine, up sharply from twenty-eight in 1970, bringing fiscal and demographic stresses that undermine global competitiveness. Domestic discontent, political polarization, and declining public trust, captured in surveys by the Pew Research Center are at historic lows. The value of the dollar as the reserve currency faces new scrutiny due to inflation and its use in financial sanctions.
India’s growth story is rooted in a nuanced, sometimes uneasy, relationship with the United States. While economic and technological cooperation remains valuable, these ties must be shaped in a way that reinforces strategic autonomy. American efforts to hold onto global primacy by means of technology denial and economic pressure are likely to increase, making genuine multialignment and internal liberalization essential for India. Imagining an “Indian century” necessitates strong vision and disciplined execution across economic, technological, military, and diplomatic domains. Trump’s presidency, with its unapologetic transactionalism and preference for unilateral action, forced India to confront its expectations of Western partnership and hastened its progress toward self-determined greatness.
India now needs to persevere with reform, enhance resource security, build technological independence, proactively ensure regional stability, and aggressively pursue dedollarization. The risks involved are significant, but the potential rewards are immense. India's test will be whether it can convert strategic freedom into lasting power, shaping a multipolar world where its interests are fully represented. If the current momentum continues, the future of global leadership could well be Indian.
>> Source: News Bomb
