Thoughts on COP 30: Let’s Recognize Our Failure and Act on It

 

On 10-21 November 2025, Brazil is hosting the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), which will take place in Belém, Brazil. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the largest global United Nations event for discussions and negotiations on climate change. The meeting is held annually, with the presidency rotating among the five UN-recognized regions. The expectation is that the chosen city will provide the world with a unique platform to discuss climate solutions, firmly rooted in the heart of the Amazon. As the host country, Brazil is committed to strengthening multilateralism and the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) warned that humanity has failed to limit global heating to 1.5 degree Celsius and must change course immediately. In an interview with the Guardian Guterres mentioned that the priority at COP30 is to shift direction ‘to make sure that the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon.’ He further added that ‘we do not want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and make a dramatic decrease of emission as soon as possible.’

If we look at the current science, we would be able to see that using the current policies that various governments have a plan to implement, we would end up to 2.5 degree Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century. Many countries have set targets to reach ‘net-zero’ emissions by the middle of this century. This means we need to build momentum around the world to shift current economy to decarbonized economy. If we promise for Net Zero economy and realize that this is the sustainable economy, then three general principles are pertinent: polluter pays, public money for public goods and net environmental gain. Some of principles have already been promised in the several COP meetings before. For example, in case of net environmental gain, a property developer requires to ensure net biodiversity gain. In a net zero carbon world, emission would have to be compensated for by emissions reductions elsewhere, so we can achieve net carbon gain. If they achieved this, we would be in a 1.8-degree Celsius warmer world. So, we shall have to put ourselves in a better trajectory. We also need to realize that ‘net-zero’ is not ‘zero’.

In practice if our carbon emission drops to zero tomorrow, then we might achieve our goal but the reality is that our emissions are not going to fall quickly enough. So, countries need to adapt to the post 1.5-degree Celsius world, because soon this will be the norm. It is to be noted that 1.5 degree or 2 degrees are some arbitrary targets. The point here is that every degree is matter and that needs fighting for reduction in order to reduce the impacts of climate change. This means 1.5 degree is better than 2 degrees. 2 degree is better than 2.5 degree etc.  

Sometime we use the word ‘Tipping point’, which means a threshold where a system moves into an irreversible state, but there is no single tipping point. For example, destruction of tropical coral reefs is one tipping point and destruction of amazon rainforest another tipping point. They will not change irreversibly at once. Rather change of global surface temperature could affect those changes gradually and also not affect equally. So, we shall have to focus on how we can reduce our carbon emissions as quickly as possible.

According to the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report there is a representative concentration pathway scenario known as RCP 8.5 scenario, which is a high-emissions pathway for climate change where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow throughout the 21st century. It is often considered a "worst-case" or "business-as-usual" scenario, assuming no significant climate policy interventions. This path results in a much higher degree of warming by 2100 compared to other scenarios, with a best estimate of 4.3-degree Celsius rise over pre-industrial levels, and is sometimes used to predict the impacts of emissions based on current or stated policies. We should avoid this trajectory by all means.

We can do various things at the individual level such as cycling, using public transport instead of driving, installing solar panels and switch to renewable energy providers. However, at the societal level we need bigger and faster action. We need the deployment of low-carbon electricity sources like solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal as quickly as possible. In order to implement this, we need infrastructure projects. We need to accelerate the advancement of batteries, electrify as many sectors as we can such as road transport, heating, manufacturing. We need to reduce meat and diary consumption and invest in forest and ecosystem restoration.

We have most of the technology we need to combat the climate crisis and most people want to see more action. But after several decades of climate COPs, our global emissions are worse than ever. And we are accelerating into a polycrisis. This polycrisis, Mike Berners-Lee in his book ‘A Climate of Truth’ suggests the crisis that alongside and inextricably linked to our climate crisis such as food security, biodiversity, pollution, inequality and many more. Berners-Lee further added that ‘we need to stand back much further from the problem to get the best possible perspective and insights into the big picture. And at the same time, we need to get much deeper under the skin of the problems to better understand their resilience and the reasons behind our persistent failure to date.’

American writer and civil rights activist James Baldwin once said ‘Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.’ Humanity is now at the verge of facing climate catastrophe in various shapes and forms.  Guterres mentioned that he will never give up his commitment to climate action and to ‘help and support all the democratic movements that around the world are fighting and fighting hard to preserve the most precious possession that we have, which is our mother nature.’ So, we should act collectively. Recognising the failures to date, collective action can bring some fruition.


Dr. Kanan Purkayastha is a UK-based 
academic scholar who writes on 
sciences, philosophy and education.