Sound Policies Pave the Way for A Sustainable Power Sector

 

Maintaining discipline and adherence to rules of business is essential for achieving a country’s self-sustainability. Unfortunately, many sectors in Bangladesh have suffered from disorder and corruption, which has hindered our progress compared to others. In the power sector, one of the key reasons for not achieving expected profitability is flawed or ineffective policy formulation.

With the vision of transforming Bangladesh into a ‘developed country,’ our professional experts and experienced government scholars have undertaken various initiatives to formulate effective policies for the power and energy sector, much like in other key areas of national development. In particular, the Power Sector Master Plans (PSMP) have been designed to align with the country’s targeted growth and GDP objectives.

Sound judgment, strategic project selection, and timely implementation are the core priorities in this endeavor. Just as a tree cannot flourish if its roots are weak—its branches wither and fail to bear flowers or fruit—the power sector too must be built on a strong foundation. To nurture such strength, careful groundwork is essential—like properly tilling the soil and applying the right fertilizer before planting or sowing suitable seeds. Only then can we expect the desired harvest of progress and prosperity.

In parallel with consideration of demand forecasts, our policymakers put across the policy in respect of construction of power stations, substations, transmission & distribution lines, type of fuel, cost-effectiveness, etc. After the partition in 1947, the policy-making on generation and utilization of electricity in our country has been being formulated, processed & shaped with the foreign economic and technical assistance, including the last one in 2016. It was amended in 2018 and was processed by JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). Truly, it is not denying the fact that the foreign advisors have already engulfed our economy, raising different causes with the help of the powerful native ill-minded officers or dishonest powerful leaders. The projects taken to perform after the independence of our country have mostly proved detrimental or inactive, and it was full of executive faultiness with defective assimilation.

PSMP has been subsequently upgraded in 2023 and named IEPMP (Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan), incorporating the utilization of the fuel diversification program and looking for a more comprehensive framework for the power sector. Now the question arises: why was this upgrade or modification necessary? Policymakers might have concluded that the 2018 policy wasn't enough to match our demands and financial issues. But by the time whatever damage is supposed to happen has already been incurred. Taka fifty-seven thousand three hundred seventy-seven crore has been paid to IPP (Independent Power Producers) in the fiscal year 2023-24. In addition to energy charges, this includes capacity charges.

The government needs to make capacity payments, as per contract, irrespective of whether the power plant generates electricity or remains idle. At Meghnaghat, the installed capacity of 6 unit gas-fired IPPs has been 2,725 MW, out of which not more than 50% could be operative at a time for want of fuel and evacuation problems. It's worth mentioning that the feasibility study of these power plants was done by JICA/donors, and they were installed as per their prescription. Now we, not the donors, need to pay for the capacity charge even if we don't get electricity. The concerned donors should be brought to justice as per international law for the drainage of our huge sums to overseas countries. Moreover, the capacity payment affects electricity price remarkably. For example, the cost of electricity has been Taka 7.63 per kWh and Taka 14.62 per kWh for BPDB and IPP, respectively, causing a price hike in the electricity tariff.

IEPMP suggests that demand and generation capacity would be about 50,400 MW & 74,300 MW in 2041 and 70,500 MW and 111,100 MW in 2050, respectively. In my opinion, JICA's forecast will prove inaccurate as before in consideration of the socioeconomic condition of Bangladesh. IEPMP could be partially a new trick to deceive us.

It is another important task of policymakers to plan for spinning reserve. In the 2024 fiscal year, there happened 279 times partial failure of the National Grid across the country. It meant that at least one part of the country had to suffer from an outage of electricity or load-shedding, whereas consumers always pay off the bills prepared by the due section at the fixed rate. Actually, they never expect the discontinuation of power supply. Very few steps were needed to overcome the situation.

Let us consider that the highest demand of a grid network is 90 MW. To meet the needs, the required electricity has been being supplied through the grid system. It is assumed that the rated capacities of running units are 8 units of 2.5 MW, 6 units of 5 MW, & 4 units of 10 MW. Basically, this system is not at all good or sustainable because of the absence of spinning reservation. One more 10 MW capacity generator is essential here at this stage. It will ascertain the supply of 90 MW of electricity by sharing 90% generation. This system will prevent the ‘load-shedding’ so that even the highest unit is stopped for any fault. The consumers will also not understand the effect of load-shedding. In these circumstances, the desired units will run smoothly, sharing 90% of the load among themselves.

In case of tripping of the highest capacity unit owing to a fault in the system, the load shedding will not take place. The spinning reserve of a grid must be equal to the capacity of the highest-capacity unit being operated. In this case, 120 MW of installed capacity is necessary against 90 MW of peak-hour demand. Reserve-margin planning will be easier if the connected network units are multiples or factors of each other. But our units were not installed in accordance with this theory of mathematics. On the contrary, they have been installed at sixes and sevens. It is recorded that some generators have 20 MW capacity, some 33 MW, 71 MW, 100 MW, 125 MW, and so on. The energy charge will rise proportionally with the reserve margin because of payable installation & capacity charges.

JICA thinks that the reserve margin could be between 20% and 25%. It was 18% in the year of 2017. This reserve margin that depends on the socioeconomic condition of the country & GDP target is ascertained by national planners and decision makers. If the protective devices and circuit breakers work accurately, the grid will be technically sustainable. Meanwhile, the activeness of the spinning reserve and the protective device also ensures the quality of electricity.


Athar Uddin Talukder is a
retired Member of Bangladesh
Power Development Board (BPDB).