The Future of the Rohingya Community in Bangladesh: A Contextualized Analysis

The large-scale displacement of the Rohingya community from Myanmar to Bangladesh represents not only a profound humanitarian tragedy but also a long-term geopolitical challenge for South Asia and the Bay of Bengal region. Any meaningful discussion on the future of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh must consider the history of their displacement, the present humanitarian and security realities within Bangladesh, the shifting power dynamics in Rakhine State, and the wider strategic influences of regional and global powers such as China. Bangladesh’s policies and humanitarian actions have been rooted in compassion, prudence, and an unwavering commitment to regional stability and human dignity.

Historical Background and Causes of Displacement
The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, have deep historical roots in the region. However, their situation deteriorated drastically following the 1962 military takeover in Myanmar, when the state began to label them as “Bengalis,” effectively denying their citizenship and belonging. The 1982 Burmese Citizenship Law further institutionalized their statelessness, excluding the Rohingya from the list of recognized ethnic groups and stripping them of their rights.

The Rohingya have faced multiple waves of persecution and displacement. The first major exodus occurred in 1978 during “Operation Dragon King,” when around 200,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh. A second wave followed in 1991–1992 under “Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation,” which pushed another 250,000 Rohingyas across the border. The most significant displacement began on 25 August 2017, when more than 700,000 Rohingya fled following a brutal military crackdown in Rakhine State (IISS, 2018). These recurrent crises stemmed from systemic discrimination, violent military operations, the absence of effective governance, and insurgent attacks that invited massive retaliatory campaigns by Myanmar’s army.

Bangladesh’s Response and Policy Stance
Bangladesh has shown exceptional humanitarian leadership in hosting over one million Rohingya displaced persons. According to official figures of UNHCR, as of September 2025, there were 1,162,939 Rohingyas from 242,395 families living in the camps of Cox’s Bazar and on Bhasan Char Island (RRRC, 2025). Despite its generosity, Bangladesh has made it clear that it is not in a position to grant formal refugee status to the Rohingyas, referring to them instead as “Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals” (FDMN). The country is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and has not enacted national legislation for asylum or refugee matters. This policy underscores that their stay in Bangladesh is temporary and conditional upon voluntary, safe, and dignified return to Myanmar.

This position reflects several crucial policy objectives. Bangladesh aims to uphold its sovereignty and prevent the crisis from turning into a permanent demographic and economic burden. The government’s stance also preserves diplomatic leverage in future repatriation negotiations, emphasizing that the responsibility for the Rohingya ultimately lies with Myanmar. By maintaining humanitarian support, such as the issuance of identity cards solely for aid distribution, Bangladesh highlights that its engagement is humanitarian, not political or permanent. The approach also reassures host communities that the Rohingyas’ stay will not evolve into long-term integration.

The Humanitarian and Security Landscape
The humanitarian response in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char is grappling with increasingly complex challenges. Funding shortfalls have reached a critical level, with the 2025–2026 Joint Response Plan (JRP) securing only 38 percent of the required USD 934.5 million as of October 2025. This has left many essential programs underfunded or suspended, significantly straining the overall humanitarian operation. Data from UNOCHA indicates a gradual decline in funding over recent years, with funding gaps recorded at 27 percent in 2021, 29.7 percent in 2022, 29.3 percent in 2023, and 35.7 percent in 2024—revealing a persistent downward trend. The situation worsened in 2025 following the cessation of U.S. funding, which had accounted for 54.8 percent of total JRP contributions in 2024. This substantial reduction in financial support has already compelled cutbacks in key sectors such as food assistance, health services, protection, gender-based violence response, and education, directly affecting both the Rohingya refugees and the vulnerable host communities in Bangladesh.

At the same time, the security environment within the Rohingya camps has become increasingly fragile. The arrest of Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, the commander-in-chief of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), along with ten of his associates in March this year, once again underscored the persistent militant threats that have long destabilized the refugee settlements in Bangladesh. ARSA has been accused of violent activities, including the assassination of prominent Rohingya leader Mohib Ullah in 2022, who had been a strong advocate for voluntary and dignified repatriation. The group has also been linked by many to the killing of a DGFI officer near the Tumbru border, posing risks to Bangladesh’s internal security.

The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs mentioned that the camps’ geographical proximity to the Myanmar border, coupled with fluctuating territorial control in Rakhine State, has further complicated Bangladesh’s security management. Meanwhile, reports from the Dhaka Tribune indicate a rising number of Rohingyas leaving the camps in search of livelihood opportunities across Bangladesh, raising concerns about unregulated movement and pressures related to informal local integration. Despite these outward movements, the population within the Cox’s Bazar camps continues to grow, with an estimated 95 children born every day, underscoring the mounting humanitarian and demographic pressures on the host country.

The Government of Bangladesh, despite its best efforts, cannot sustain such an extensive humanitarian operation indefinitely with domestic resources. The combination of security risks, funding cuts, and social tensions underscores the urgency of a durable international solution.

Power Shifting and Geopolitical Realities in Myanmar
The political landscape in Myanmar has undergone profound change since the 2021 military coup. The central authority of the Tatmadaw has weakened due to internal resistance, economic collapse, and growing territorial losses to ethnic armed groups. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) now holds extensive control, including large portions of the border with Bangladesh. This fragmentation has left Dhaka without a stable counterpart for repatriation negotiations, making the prospects of safe return increasingly uncertain.

China plays a decisive role in Myanmar’s internal affairs, particularly through its investment in the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port and economic corridor projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. These projects not only strengthen China’s access to the Indian Ocean but also cement its influence over Myanmar’s political factions. Analysts at the International Politics of the Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar: China, Japan, and the US mentioned that China often shields Myanmar from international accountability in forums such as the UN Security Council, promoting stability over justice as its strategic priority.

On the other hand, the United States, having declared the Myanmar military’s actions against the Rohingya as genocide in 2022, continues to advocate for accountability and a rights-based resolution. However, U.S. interest in establishing a strategic presence in the Bay of Bengal, particularly through reported discussions around St. Martin’s Island in India Today, has added a geopolitical dimension to the crisis (India Today, 2024). For Bangladesh, maintaining a balanced diplomatic relationship with both China and the U.S. remains vital, as both powers’ involvement in Myanmar affects the dynamics of Rohingya repatriation and regional stability.

The Question of Repatriation and Future Pathways
Repatriation has always been at the core of Bangladesh’s policy on the Rohingya crisis. Despite initiating multiple attempts since 2017, all efforts have failed largely because Myanmar has refused to ensure citizenship, safety, and rights for returning Rohingyas. The United Nations maintains that any repatriation must be voluntary, dignified, and conducted in a secure environment, conditions that are yet to exist in Myanmar. Given the prevailing political and security context in Myanmar, the prospects for voluntary, safe, and dignified repatriation remain highly uncertain and are unlikely to be realized in the immediate future.

For Bangladesh, the future lies in navigating this crisis through diplomatic resilience and international partnerships. Continued engagement with Myanmar, China, ASEAN, and the UN remains essential to create pressure for meaningful reform in Rakhine State. Simultaneously, Bangladesh must sustain its call for global burden-sharing, as no single nation can indefinitely bear such an enormous humanitarian and security responsibility alone.

A Humanized and Forward-Looking Thought
The Rohingya crisis is one of the most complex humanitarian and geopolitical dilemmas in modern history. Bangladesh has shown extraordinary compassion by sheltering nearly a million displaced people, despite its own development challenges. Yet, after eight years of the crisis, the question of how long this situation can continue remains pressing.
The best possible future for the Rohingyas, and for Bangladesh, is one in which conditions in Myanmar allow for their safe, dignified, and voluntary return. This would not only restore their rights and identity but also relieve Bangladesh of an immense humanitarian burden. Until then, Bangladesh’s measured and principled approach, balancing compassion with sovereignty, and diplomacy with national interest, will continue to stand as a testament to its moral and political maturity in one of the most sensitive humanitarian crises of our time.


Inmanuel Chayan Biswas
is a writer and a 
humanitarian activist.