Nuke treaty between two superpowers expires soon

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spent weeks trading threats to restart nuclear tests, an escalation kicked off by Putin’s boasts about tests of the Poseidon nuclear powered missile in late October 2025.

Days later Donald Trump declared that he had ordered the first US nuclear test in three decades. A nuclear weapons agreement between USA and Russia is more than essential.

28 October 2025 will mark 100 days until the last remaining treaty limiting the two largest nuclear arsenals—the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)—will expire. The treaty has been extended once and cannot be extended again. No talks are yet underway on a follow-on agreement.

The leaders’ provocative public statements, including a Russian reply that it too would explore restarting nuclear weapons testing, have raised global concerns about a new nuclear arms race. Behind the scenes, both sides are also eyeing a critical upcoming deadline: February 4, when the singular remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the nations is set to expire.

The New START treaty limits both countries to a maximum of 1,550 deployed long-range nuclear warheads on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. After a five-year extension signed by President Joe Biden, the treaty is set to expire early next year with little indication of momentum towards a new agreement.

The treaty's original duration was 10 years, with the option for the Parties to agree to extend it for up to an additional five years. The United States and Russian Federation agreed on a five-year extension of New START to keep it in force through February 4, 2026.

Trump’s National Security Council called a meeting with nuclear weapons experts during the lead-up to the summit between Trump and Putin in August 2025, according to four sources familiar with the meeting.

The wide-ranging discussion included the potential benefits of extending the current cap on deployed nuclear weapons that the US and Russia have agreed to, whether or not to expand the size of the US nuclear arsenal and the status of the US nuclear triad.  

The White House wanted to get prepared for any possible nuclear discussion between the two leaders of the world’s greatest nuclear arsenals.
But the leaders’ meeting ended without momentum towards ending the Ukraine War or the announcement of any nuclear weapons agreement.

According to independent assessments by the Federation of American Scientists and published by SIPRI, the United States and Russia have fewer than 800 total strategic nuclear launchers each; China has some 550 strategic nuclear launchers; and the U.K. and France have a combined total of about 100 strategic launchers.