Bangladesh still counts the economic costs

 
When Russian forces moved into a full-scale war with Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the crisis felt far removed from Bangladesh. But the shock did not stay in Europe. Within months, its effects seeped into Bangladesh's food imports, energy bills, export orders, and even household incomes. A distant war quietly became a local economic burden.

Food supplies hit first in this regard. Russia and Ukraine together make up a large share of global wheat exports. Bangladesh has long depended on Russian wheat-importing 500,000 tonnes in FY24 and 400,000 tonnes in FY25, with more shipments in the pipeline. But when the war disrupted trade routes in 2022, Bangladesh had to turn to alternative suppliers. Prices jumped, and so did household costs. Researchers later found that many families cut back on protein consumption as food inflation stayed high.

The biggest pain came from the global LNG market. Prices rose from $7 in March 2021 to an astonishing $54 in 2022. Bangladesh paid as much as $35 per unit before suspending spot-market purchases. The fallout was felt everywhere such as power shortages, reduced industrial output, higher import bills, and added pressure on the dollar reserves. The energy shock quickly morphed into a broader economic challenge.

Export-oriented industries, especially garments, faced a difficult year. Orders dropped as Western consumers tightened spending. At the same time, higher energy prices pushed up production costs.

Bangladesh exports about Tk650 million worth of garments to Russia annually. But sanctions-including the removal of Russian banks from SWIFT-caused payment delays and shipment bottlenecks. Growth numbers reflect the strain: Large industries that expanded 15.68% in FY22 were projected to grow only 8.46% the following year.

The war's economic aftershocks soon appeared in Bangladesh's foreign currency reserves. Bangladesh Bank calculated reserves at $29.97 billion. IMF's method placed them at $23.57 billion. By early 2024, reserves slipped to around $20 billion, dipping further after Asian Clearing Union payments.

At the same time financial account deficit was $7.3 billion and Trade deficit was $13.39 billion (July-January period). The numbers revealed how quickly global turmoil can weaken Bangladesh's external position.

Former IBFB president Humayun Rashid summed it up clearly: "We had to pay more for energy due to the war. Today's foreign currency crisis is also a result of the war." Food grains faced disruptions too, though domestic production helped reduce the impact.

Beyond economics, the war affected Bangladeshi families in unexpected ways. Many young men were lured to Russia with promises of high salaries and ended up being recruited into military roles. Some did not return.

Their deaths left families devastated-a tragic reminder that global conflicts can carry human costs far beyond the battlefield.

The World Bank expects global growth to slow to 1.7% in 2025, dampening prospects for

Bangladesh's exports. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has managed to secure only 3% of the funds required to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Economic analysts warn that Goal 16-peace, justice, and strong institutions-is increasingly at risk as economic pressures grow. To stabilise the economy, Bangladesh sought a $4.5 billion loan package from the IMF.

More than two years after the war began, the Ukraine-Russia war continues to shape Bangladesh's economic outlook. What once felt like a distant geopolitical dispute has become a pressing domestic concern-influencing energy prices, export competitiveness, foreign exchange reserves, and even the livelihoods of migrant families. The war may be thousands of kilometres away, but for Bangladesh, its impact is now woven into everyday economic life.