China Content to Let Its Friends Sink: Bangladesh Take Note

Events unfolding in Iran should be a cautionary tale to the leaders and Islamists in Bangladesh who are moving their nation closer to China and farther away from the United States (US). If you are in trouble, China will not help you. Rather, it will be content to sit on the sidelines and watch passively while you go down to defeat. This is the second time in seven months that Iran is in trouble—big trouble—and like the last time, China is doing nothing to save its ally. Moreover, Iran has been China’s largest source of crude oil and last year purchased 90 percent of what Iran exported. That’s between 15 and 20 percent of China’s total imports. And because of US sanctions on Iran, China buys it at a discounted price saving it billions of dollars.

Iran also anchors the axis of authoritarianism with China and Russia, as one of its three main pillars. Yet, China has sat by passively while Iran’s Islamist regime winds the unrelenting and inevitable path to oblivion as the anti-regime uprising continues with no end in sight. Credible reports suggest that top regime already leaders have sent their families out of the country, and Russian cargo planes have been observed carting gold out of the country: indicators that regime leaders know that their demise is only a matter of time, and likely not much time.

Against all that, what chance does Bangladesh think it would have if it needed China to support it? Not much. And it is not only help with a people’s uprising against your regime. The current uprising in Iran reflects the people’s anger and frustration over decades of oppression, however, it began because the people lacked certain basic necessities. They started having serious problems with water and electricity months ago, problems that could have been on a road to healing if the right set of technologies and infrastructure was applied. What is especially interesting about that is China via its Belt and Road Initiative has been making infrastructure deals with other nations for years. Pakistan is the largest recipient of that sort of aid, however, as we have seen with Pakistan, it comes with a steep price: lock step geopolitical alignment with Beijing. Otherwise, no dice. We do not even know, however, if China held out the offer. Unlike Pakistan, Iran did not have the option of reaching out to the United States for help and spurning China. Not offering help under those conditions also reflects the amoral and self-centered foreign policy of the Chinese Communist Party.

Much of Iran’s problems also intensified after the 12-day War last June with Israel. As Israel systematically destroyed Iran’s air defenses and started taking out regime leaders; China sat by idly, not the actions of a friend. History provides an example of what a friend should do. In 1973, Syria and Egypt launched a surprise and unprovoked attack on Israel. But after some initial losses, Israel recovered and started beating back both Arab armies. In less than three weeks, it had wiped out any Arab gains, was capturing Egyptian armies on the African side of the Suez Canal, and had open roads to both Cairo and Damascus. Both aggressor nations were in trouble. What saved them? Leonid Brezhnev, leader of the Soviet Union called US President Richard Nixon and told him that unless Israel ceased all military activity, the Soviet Union would intervene. Rather than risk a direct confrontation between the US and the USSR, Nixon prevailed upon the Israelis to stand down. That is what a friend does, and it was not what China did as Israel was dismantling Iran’s military, infrastructure, and its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Even since the war, China has provided little in the way of military aid to help its ally rebuild after its devastating loss; which is, in part, why Iran remains militarily vulnerable today. Now that the regime itself is likely to fall, China is again inactive. Regime leaders are looking to Russia for escape routes.

In stark contradiction, the United States took strong action to support its friend, Israel, after the atrocities on October 7, 2023. Even as the administration of former President Joe Biden took contrary positions (to placate its political base on the left), the US continued to re-supply Israel with the military hardware and other aid it needed. In June, when its friend needed help finishing off Iran’s nuclear program, the United States sent some of its most advanced aircraft to the Fordow nuclear site, and obliterated it with a bunker busting bomb. In the last century, America gave almost 100,000 lives to help out allies in Indochina and Korea. It also provided strategic ally Jordan with significant military and financial support to defeat the attempted Palestinian “Black September” coup. We could go on and on.

For several years prior to the August 2024 coup, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina proudly and correctly pointed to Bangladesh’s “economic miracle” that lifted it out of the least developed nations category. But some months before the coup, the miracle ran out of steam. International orders went unfilled (and customers found different suppliers) and people lost their jobs. Whoever emerges from the current “interim” state will have to fix Bangladesh’s economy or face the same fate as the former government. History makes clear that it would be a big mistake to count on China coming through for a friend.

Dr. Richard L. Benkin is an American scholar and a geopolitical expert. Views expressed in the article are the writer's personal opinions.