Which Alliance Is Coming Off Victorious in Parliamentary Elections?

In the national elections to be held on February 12 in Bangladesh, the traditional political force BNP is on one side, and the disciplined religious party Jamaat-E-Islami is on the other. Beyond these two forces, 'Generation G' or young voters have emerged as a huge factor. The return of political activists living abroad after 17 years, the death of Khaleda Zia and the psychology of new voters - all of these will make the next election an unimaginable duel. In particular, how relevant the example of Sri Lanka's political change is in the context of Bangladesh can now be discussed.

The possibility of BNP's minimum vote bank being 32% and the maximum being 40% is logical based on historical data. On the other hand, Jamaat's vote is likely to increase from 7% to 10% or more. Mathematically, if the huge vote bank of Awami League (which averaged 30-35% in the last election) remains inactive or is shifted elsewhere, the gap between Jamaat and BNP will narrow. The Sri Lankan model (victory of the GCC) of reaching 169 seats from 3 seats proves that a mathematical leap is not impossible. An analysis of the previous statistics of the Election Commission shows that a small change of 3-5% of the votes can change the balance of power.

The unexpected victory of Chhatra Shibir and the defeat of Chhatra Dal in the recent student parliament elections of various universities indicate a major change in the mentality of young and new voters in the upcoming national elections. This result may reflect the decline in the organizational appeal of BNP among the total voters of the country, or about one-third, or 45 million young voters, and the growing public support for Jamaat-Shibir.

 This has a negative impact on the BNP vote bank in the national elections, as well as strengthening the possibility of increasing the political capacity of Jamaat. Overall, this polarization can change the voting equation of BNP and Jamaat in the national elections, and Shibir's success in terms of votes can be helpful in establishing Jamaat as a strong competitor.

Extortion allegations are a big factor in the post-August 5 era. 80% of the total extortion allegations against BNP and 15% against Anti-Discrimination/NCP are having a negative impact on the public. Psychologically, the common people want stability and security. The absence of extortion allegations against Jamaat is creating a 'clean image' for them, which is helpful in attracting silent voters.

45 million young voters are one of the driving forces in this election. This generation sees more of the current behavior and dependence on information technology than traditional politics. Jamaat's digital campaign and disciplined use are attracting a large part of the youth. If we examine public opinion scientifically, it is seen that the youth give importance to 'performance' and 'discipline' over ideals. A large part of this generation's votes can go to the Jamaat-NCP alliance.

The propaganda or defamation of BNP regarding 'Hawa Bhaban' and 'Khamba' during the elections can have a negative impact on the minds of voters, because these names can become symbols of corruption and misrule for the common people. As a result, a crisis of trust can be created among the voters and the opposition can use it as a political weapon to create a negative image of BNP in the public mind.

The large voter base of the Awami League is now scattered. Where will these votes go? With the NCP in the Jamaat alliance, there is a possibility that the Awami League votes will go more towards BNP than Jamaat. This can act as a 'kingmaker' in determining the final outcome of the elections.
The ongoing debate over the election-time government structure and constitutional reforms is influencing the voters. Only if the steps taken by the current interim government guarantee free and fair elections, can public opinion largely move towards Jamaat-NCP.

The common people want price control and economic security. The party that will provide a specific outline of economic reforms, the lower-middle class voters will lean towards them.

In Bangladeshi politics, 'tea-er kape tufan' or tea shop chat plays a big role in shaping public opinion. Currently, various jokes and trolls are being made on social media about the long-standing culture of BNP and the attempt to portray Jamaat as 'civil'. These jokes are in a way part of the election campaign. However, both parties are almost equal on this issue.

With the parliamentary elections coming up, the extensive activism of Jamaat-E-Islami workers and women at the field level and on social media can create new polarization among voters. This can strengthen the party's vote base and emerge as a big challenge for the opposing parties. In addition, the active participation of women workers will play a special role in attracting women voters and increasing public support.

After August 5, the tolerant behavior of Jamaat workers and the social image of standing by people in times of danger can be helpful in increasing their votes. In the language of sociology, people's immediate memory is more effective than long-term political loyalty.

Jamaat's distance from Islami Andolan Bangladesh and Hefazat Islam could emerge as a major obstacle in the electoral arena.

The allegations of threats to the female leadership and army against Jamaat could alienate them from female voters and conscious society. This could be advantageous for BNP.

The reason for the low involvement of silent voters with BNP could be the aggressive role of some of the party's field-level leaders and activists. Silent voters generally dislike instability. They choose parties that guarantee stability at the last minute.

The return of the BNP chairman to the country after 17 years has seen a kind of excitement among their party and alliance voters. The sympathy of the general public for the death of Begum Khaleda Zia is a big 'emotional card' for BNP. Historically, sympathy votes play a big role in Bangladesh.

Although the turnout at Jamaat's public meetings is high, there are allegations that they hire people from all over the country or bring them in organizationally. This may not reflect the true local public opinion. On the other hand, BNP's public support is very much scattered.

Currently, India-Bangladesh-Pakistan-US relations and border issues will create a sense of patriotism in the national elections. The party that takes a tough stand on the issue of sovereignty will be considered by voters as a symbol of nationalist strength. Although BNP has historically been ahead in this regard, Jamaat is also using the same tone.

In any election, the deterioration of law and order goes against the political party. BNP's tendency to file mass cases can put their image in crisis. The mountain of cases and extortion against BNP and the allegations of women-related statements, ballot seal forgery and beating of bank employees against Jamaat will face challenges for both parties.

With numerous rebel candidates, BNP's defeat in at least 50 seats can be a sure reason. On the other hand, the unwavering trust in the leadership of Jamaat-e-Islami and a single candidate can make their victory easier.

Women voters will undoubtedly play an important role in determining the outcome in this election. Because more than half of the total voters in Bangladesh are women. Since many of the male voters are absconding and expatriates, the relative vote will be less. If Jamaat can convince women on various issues, they will also be able to win a significant number of female votes. Otherwise, naturally, BNP will be clearly ahead in the women's vote.

The issue of Jamaat Shibir's bloodshed and the past allegations that Bangladesh became the world champion of corruption five times in a row when BNP was in power are being discussed among voters. These two issues can also affect the voting field.

Jamaat's main slogan is "We want Allah's law, we want the rule of honest people." Recently, the organization has been saying that it will not implement Islamic Sharia, that is, Allah's law. This can affect the voting field.

Finally, it can be said that the next election is not just a vote, but a test of a radical change in the political culture of Bangladesh. If BNP can convince the people about their internal chaos, extortion, past record and case politics, then they can achieve victory. If BNP fails in this journey, the Jamaat-NCP alliance can show a surprise like Sri Lanka. There will be nothing surprising in this. On the other hand, if Jamaat wants to get the desired results in the electoral arena, it may be helpful to reassure the countrymen about 1971 and move away from controversial activities. However, in the changed situation, who will be the seat of power depends a lot on the wishes of the youth and the parties' ability to gain the credibility of the majority of voters through self-correction.


Dr. Md. Anwar Hossain is an
essayist and President of the International Anti-Drug 
Organization - Freedom International Anti-Alcohol. He can be reached 
at [email protected]