Published: 12:10 AM, 25 July 2026
A Turbulent PoK
Shantanu Mukharji
In the very recent past, Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) witnessed a series of violent incidents following some serious disturbances making the situation very fragile and tentative. The extent of volatility was so high that the Pakistan security and political establishments seemed clueless as to how to deal with the situation. Amid an uneasy calm, the ongoing PoK trouble continued the second time within a year led by the Joint Action Committee, which comprises individuals from different political backgrounds and varied sections of the society. The unrest in this sensitive region had been building up for some time which went unnoticed, and had been initially driven by local socio-economic demands. However, it has now evolved into a broader movement, fundamentally involving the youth apparently disillusioned with the prevailing system of governance.
Coincidently, the State’s muscular unavoidable manner of response has exacerbated matters. Instead of addressing the protesters’ grievances and attempting for a political solution, the government chose to crack down, further fueling public angst. Blacking out the news on mainstream media did not stop information about the events from spreading on social media. As it is, the government has attributed the protests to a foreign conspiracy which is a parochial view of the situation. In the past too, the Pakistan government had insinuated the disturbances to India in an apparent bid to hide the ongoing dissent and growing internal problems. Threatening statements from government officials are also failing to diffuse the situation.
It is relevant to mention that 3 years ago, the people took to the streets to protest against the shortage of essential commodities and high electricity tariffs. The situation was brought under control when the administration accepted the people’s demands, but other issues continued to simmer. Discontent rose with growing unemployment among the youth, and political manipulation was alleged. The demand for abolishing reserved seats in the PoK assembly reflected the frustration of a large segment of the local people who perceived the government was being run from outside. These facts are all very well-articulated in the leading Pakistani dallies especially covered by noted columnist Zahid Hussain in the “Dawn”, the most widely read English newspaper in Pakistan. Last year’s protests in September & October, compelled the government to negotiate with the protesters. Most of their demands were accepted, and the administration promised to implement them within a timeframe. These demands primarily focused on the provision of basic socio-economic facilities.
However, a major highlight was the call for the abolishment of the refugee seats which have long been used by Islamabad to manipulate the political system. The government now claims that it has accepted most of the 38 points raised by the protesters, and both Islamabad and the PoK governments promised to address the issue of reserved seats. However, more that eight months later, no progress has yet been made on this matter, with the simmering political discontent threatening to escalate. And, this development is more than visible.
Meanwhile, reports confirm that several law enforcing officers and demonstrators were killed in the recent clashes, and the situation was still not under control, contrary to what Islamabad and the local authorities claim. The use of force could alienate the population in this extremely sensitive region, which has significant geopolitical implications for Pakistan. Unfortunately, those in power have yet to understand the gravity of the situation. The “Dawn” also alleges in its recent editorial that a flawed electoral system has long been used to install complaint administrations or unseat those that have fallen out of favour. Under the PoK interim constitution of 1974, of the directly elected 45 seats, 33 falls within the geographical boundaries of PoK, while 12 seats are reserved for Kashmiri refugees residing in Pakistan. Six of these 12 seats are allocated for refugees from Jammu, and six are for refugees from the Indian side of the Kashmir Valley. Geographically, eight of the seats are for Kashmiris in Punjab, with the rest divided between Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). As is known in the PoK, the number of voters in an electoral constituency ranges from 70,000 to 130,000. In contrast, for the six seats reserved for Jammu refugees, the registered votes can range from 37,000 and to 110,000. The total number of votes in the six constituencies reserved for the Kashmir Valley is 33,000, with individual constituencies having between 3,300 and 7,700 votes, according to the Election Commission’s statistics in the last elections of 2021.
Since these reserved seats lie outside the geographical and constitutional boundaries of PoK, their presence clashes with the fundamental structure of the interim constitution. Furthermore, elections for these seats are not conducted by the Election Commission of PoK but by the Election Commission of Pakistan through the respective provincial administration, leaving no mechanism for accountability to the PoK Election Commission. Those elected to these reserved seats often lack any genuine stake in the region, and the seats typically go to the ruling party in Islamabad.
Complaints of fraudulent voting for these seats have also been persistent. In the current assembly, the residency certificates of four members out of the 12 are reported to be questionable and investigations are ongoing in the courts. Additionally, on member’s state subject certificate has been declared fake by the Supreme Court, which ordered action, but no measures have been taken. Despite such doubtful credentials, members elected to these reserved seats play a crucial role in the formation of PoK governments, with many becoming ministers without any real connection to the region.
In light of these, it is not altogether surprising that which party is in power in Islamabad typically forms the government in PoK and is unseated with the shifting power dynamics in Pakistan. This political manipulation is seen in the fact that the region has had four Prime Ministers since the 2001 elections. Last week, the PoK Supreme Court upheld a reference filed by the PoK government, stating that the provision of reserved seats could only be altered through a constitutional amendment. When democratic recourse is closed off, the people have no choice but to fight for their rights. No force can stop the power of the people as per the Pakistani midstream media on their consistent reporting on this sensitive issue and related developments.
Judging by the recent happenings in PoK, the situation does look combustible and the people also restive for justice and a fair play. A simple spark in this hyper sensitive region may ignite the State into a precarious condition which might not be easy to handle.
Shantanu Mukharji is a retired IPS
officer and former National Security
Advisor in Mauritius.
