Published: 12:33 AM, 09 August 2026
Putin weighing attack to test NATO's unity, resolve: US intel
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO's resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, CNN reports. The assessments include several possible forms of escalation, including a cyberattack or small-scale incursion, the American broadcaster said.
The scenarios are intended to challenge NATO's unity and commitment to Article 5, which says an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily crossing the threshold for an allied response.
How and when Putin might do so remains an open question, but one source told CNN that he is most likely to escalate in some way by targeting the Baltic states or Poland.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the recent assessments.
US and NATO officials believe Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he is unable to secure a face-saving way out of the war in Ukraine.
The Russian president's window for choosing his next course of action spans from now to the next few years.
Martin O'Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, declined to comment on classified intelligence assessments but told the outlet that NATO is "always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios".
"NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," he added.
There have been numerous instances in recent years of Russia encroaching on NATO territory.
In May, a drone carrying explosives hit an apartment building in Romania as Russian forces attacked a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people.
Last September, NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine.
Just this week, the US assessed that an explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany overnight on Wednesday belonged to a Russian intelligence service, a US defence official in Europe told CNN.
It reportedly carried military-grade explosives and was earlier reported found by airport staff in a secure cargo area.
CNN sought comment from the Kremlin on both assessments.
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt called the armed drone "a new threat scenario", later suggesting it could be tied to "foreign powers" without giving specifics.
Germany's National Security Council met Friday to discuss the incident.
The assessments come amid concern over Washington's depleted munitions stockpile after the war against Iran, and a rise in Russian long-range strikes on civilians.
CNN previously reported nearly 80 percent of US THAAD interceptors and roughly half its Patriot interceptors have been exhausted.
The UN says civilian casualties from Russian long-range weapons rose 60 percent between January and June year-on-year.
One night of strikes this week killed at least 17 people, with none of the missiles intercepted, the news outlet said.
The munitions strain is shaping military planning for future conflicts, including any Putin escalation against NATO or a China war in the Pacific.
President Donald Trump has privately voiced frustration over dwindling stockpiles, sources told CNN, though he wrote on Truth Social that the US has "massive amounts of 'munitions'" and that defence firms are building record numbers of new plants.
The assessments come as US-led efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war remain stalled, with sanctions denting Russia's economy but not its offensive.
