Published: 10:49 PM, 16 August 2026
Will Hasina Really Return to Dhaka?
Dr. Shantanu Mukharji
Deposed Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina sent ripples by her recent announcement about plans to return to Bangladesh next December and surrender before the Court. She made a similar call on her party leaders living in exile to return to the country along with her. Her sudden disclosure to return, contrary to any indications, has startled the Bangladesh watchers. Speculations are rife whether she would actually return or this is a move to send feelers to elicit reactions in Bangladesh. Experts believe she has sent a trial balloon and therefore, it is still not clear whether she would actually return. She must have also anticipated that there is likelihood of many political happenings that may be unfolding till December when she plans to return. In sum, there is big question mark, as of now, on her return. Sheikh Hasina disclosed her return plans in a telephone interview to the UK-based news agency Reuters. During the interview, she specifically stated that she intends to return to Bangladesh next December.
Many in Bangladesh reckon that there is uncertainty even within Awami League (AL) about whether this is a genuine plan or a political strategy to revive the party activities. Many party leaders also say that beyond the question of whether Sheikh Hasina herself will return, the bigger issue is how many leaders and activists would ultimately be willing to risk returning under the current political circumstances. Significantly, the public ire against Hasina is still prevalent in many quarters and judging by these, a hasty return would certainly mean a certain doom for Hasina.
Sheikh Hasina further said that she and other AL leaders wanted to return to Bangladesh voluntarily and surrender before the courts. She even said: "I have to return. My party's leaders and activists are facing severe repression. If death comes, I want to die on my own soil—where my parents are buried and where their blood was shed." However, according to senior AL leaders, the December timeline may also be symbolic. It could be part of a well-crafted strategy to energize party members, build pressure for the lifting of the ban on the party, and reclaim political space. Interestingly, after the news of Sheikh Hasina's announcement that she would return to Bangladesh became public, many AL leaders said they were unaware of any concrete political strategy or preparations behind this dramatic announcement.
Also, with nearly five months remaining before December, much will depend on the country's political situation, the position of the ruling BNP government, the attitudes of opposition parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the National Citizen Party (NCP), and the role of the international community. A senior AL leader, speaking to a section of Bangladesh media on condition of anonymity, revealed that Sheikh Hasina has been the party's president for 44 years and maintains extensive international connections. She is also fully aware of the party's current fragile condition. Nevertheless, since she has publicly stated that she will return, she may have her own preparations in place. However, the dynamics of her return remain vague.
In the meantime, many party members who have substantial financial resources are unlikely to return to Bangladesh and face imprisonment simply because Sheikh Hasina has called on them to do so. They are more likely to “wait and watch” until the political scene becomes more favorable. As a result, although Sheikh Hasina's announcement may inspire strong emotions among party members, there remains an uncertainty over whether it will lead to a large-scale collective return. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is marking the second anniversary of the student-led mass uprising. Against this backdrop, Sheikh Hasina's remarks about return have already generated political reactions within the country. Political analysts believe that the timing of her announcement was influenced by the anniversary of the uprising as well as Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman's visit to China.
In another extradition related development, the Bangladesh government is formally seeking India’s cooperation to secure the extradition of former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, who has been sentenced to death by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) for crimes against humanity committed during the July uprising in 2024. Asaduzzaman, along with many other AL leaders, including deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, fled to India in the wake of the July uprising. The Home Ministry sent the relevant documents to the foreign ministry on July 17, requesting that the matter be taken up with New Delhi. The request includes details of the ICT verdict, pending criminal cases against him and a recently approved Anti-Corruption Commission charge sheet filed against the former minister. Here, it is relevant to mention that Bangladesh and India signed an extradition treaty in 2013, which was amended in 2016. However, it says that “extradition may be refused if the offence for which it is requested is an offence of a political character.”
Avinash Paliwal, a Professor in the SOAS University of London, in the meantime, opines that Hasina’s announcement offers an opportunity to unpack the political undercurrents in Dhaka. The party remained banned and lost a chunk of its voter base to the ruling BNP in the February elections. It still retains pockets of scattered support but does not have a clear roadmap of returning to mainstream politics.
Interestingly, the BNP itself has diverse views on the AL’s return. The pragmatist view, held by party seniors and cabinet ministers including Salahuddin Ahmed and others, is to allow the reformists within AL to stage a comeback. Such a move is likely to prevent the JI-NCP coalition from expanding its political footprint, while allowing the BNP to manipulate a weaker AL for its benefit. This view likely has Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s sympathy. But the hardline view, held by BNP’s younger cadre and mid-level leadership, is to maintain the ban on AL. From their vantage, the AL’s return risks destabilizing the streets and increasing local-level competition.
The JI and NCP’s aversion to the AL is visceral. If the students faced bullets in July 2024, the JI has a longer history of persecution by Hasina. But what irks these parties most about the idea of AL’s return is them losing out whatever little they have gained since Hasina’s ouster. They realize that Islamist politics in Bangladesh has limited electoral appeal, and that the BNP remains deeply entrenched. This is why they don’t intend to waste limited political capital on protests during the first half of the BNP’s term. But they are also aware that if it comes to pass, a BNP-enabled reformist-led AL will become an immediate threat to the JI-NCP coalition.
In that situation, these parties will take to the streets with intent, leading to a political crisis. Further, according to Paliwal, Hasina’s announcement underlines that there is an urgent need for Bangladeshi parties to rethink their political culture and make space for reconciliation.
That Hasina’s possible return could trigger a crisis is understandable. But, it also offers an opportunity — a chance to hold a fair and open trial that not only holds her to account, but also impresses upon her the reality of what people truly think about her. Dhaka as per Paliwal, has a choice to make: to let Hasina destabilize the country again or to use her return as a starting point of national healing and reconciliation. What it must not do is to delude itself that the consensus to prevent AL’s return will wish the problem away. The AL’s ouster from Bangladeshi politics is unsustainable. The only question is how to curate its return as an opportunity rather than a risk. This view could, prima facie, appear far-fetched but cannot be altogether dismissed.
Dr. Shantanu Mukharji is
a retired IPS officer and
former National Security
Adviser in Mauritius.
