According to a recent news report, the “principal challenge” and impediment in planning Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to India are the “activities” of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and leaders of her party, currently in India, Foreign Affairs State Minister of Bangladesh, Humaiun Kobir in an interview (October 5) on the sidelines of the Bay of Bengal Conversation 2026, in Dhaka, said that India needed to realize “the challenges facing the newly elected government”. He was also critical of the activities of leaders of the Awami League (AL) operating from abroad.
Urging India to restrain Sheikh Hasina and her exiled party leaders, Humaiun Kobir also said that the visit will be bilateral, but there are still some challenges, and hoped both sides will overcome them through dialogue. The State Minister further alleged that Sheikh Hasina and her team are staying in Delhi are trying to destabilize another country. Kobir has been maintaining this stand from the very beginning of his assignment. He also accused Sheikh Hasina of being responsible for the deaths of nearly 2,000 Bangladeshi citizens during the suppression of the July-August 2024 uprising and described her as “a terrorist”.
On the other hand, describing relations with India as a priority for Dhaka, Humaiun Kobir averred that Bangladesh was seeing some positive signs as India is trying to restrain them. If they (Hasina and her team) are restrained, then there will be no problem in the relationship. Humaiun Kobir said, the Indian High Commissioner (HC) in Dhaka was doing a good role. The Minister reiterated that Bangladesh would not allow anyone to operate from Dhaka against India’s interests and he expected India to take similar steps.
Meanwhile, in a Hasina related development, her latest intervention from exile has transformed December into a focal point of political speculation, legal debate, and diplomatic activities about her return to Dhaka. Speaking (audio message) at a seminar organized by the Global Centre for Democratic Governance (GCDG) in London (October 1), Hasina disclosed that she was prepared to return to Bangladesh even if that meant facing execution. Her latest remarks offer the clearest indication yet of an emerging strategy aimed at political resurrection and international engagement. She said, she was ready to die for her country.
Yet, beyond the rhetoric lies a far more complicated reality. The central obstacle to Hasina’s proposed return is not political will but a legal issue. During the London seminar, she acknowledged that her passport had been cancelled by the Bangladesh authorities, forcing her to seek alternative legal options. More significantly, any attempt by Hasina to regularize her status could trigger broader legal consequences. Since she currently resides in India, questions surrounding asylum, legal dynamics governing cooperation between Dhaka and New Delhi remain. In practical terms, Hasina’s return is no longer solely a political decision, it is a matter governed by international agreements, bilateral obligations, and domestic legal proceedings.
India, according to many Bangladeshi watchers, is central on the issue of Hasina’s return. The recent comments by India’s HC to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, are particularly revealing. HC stated that India had “hardly any choice” but to allow the aircraft carrying Sheikh Hasina to land when she arrived in August 2024 and refusing entry would have a far more complex situation. These comments also underscore India’s attempt to position itself as a pragmatic actor rather than an active political participant. India on its part, seems to be emphasizing legal procedures and bilateral engagements. This approach aligns with recent diplomatic activity between the two countries, including the meeting between Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi and Bangladesh’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir, where both sides publicly emphasized continued bilateral cooperation.
Meanwhile, according to Vaishali Basu Sharma who is a security and economic affairs analyst, the United States has adopted a noticeable restrained posture. Washington has neither advocated for Hasina’s return nor opposed the legal restrictions imposed on the AL. Instead, senior US officials have emphasized that the matter should be resolved by Bangladesh and India. This neutrality is politically significant. As a result, the future of Bangladesh’s political future looks to be shaped by three interconnected developments. First, the outcome of legal proceedings against Hasina and other AL leaders. Second, India’s eventual position regarding her status and possible return. Third, the ability of the AL to maintain political relevance despite organizational restrictions. This is very well articulated by this writer. Viewed through this prism, December is not simply about whether Sheikh Hasina returns, it is about whether her return becomes a catalyst for political resurgence, a moment of legal reckoning, or a test of regional diplomacy. Her London remarks have ensured that the question will remain at the fulcrum of Bangladesh’s narratives on this matter.
Having said this, it would appear that the Bangladesh establishment is not yet ready with any firmed up contingency plan in case Hasina lands up in Dhaka in December. The government is also possibly contemplating various options in the event of her arrest leading to law and order complexities as the mood and public ire against Hasina is still in the air. Also, if actions on part of Tarique Rahman is seen as lenient in any way, it would not only act as detriment to his political position but also give a chance to the party cadres and religious hardliners specially Jamaat to interpret and publicize that Tarique Rahman is caving into Indian pressure.
As of now, the AL cadres also seem confused and directionless as to what to do. These factors are inescapable in the context of existing Indo-BD ties which do not seem to be at its best at this moment though diplomatic efforts are on to normalize them at the earliest.
Dr. Shantanu Mukharji is a retired
IPS officer and former National Security
Adviser in Mauritius. Views expressed in the
article are the writer’s personal opinions.
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