Will Trump strike nuclear sites again as Iran engages 'cognitive warfare'?

 
Since Tuesday's midterms, United States President Donald Trump has shifted his rhetoric between threatening Iran and suggesting that a resolution to the war is near.

After accepting a devastating Republican defeat at the elections and acknowledging his deeply unpopular war on Iran was partly to blame, Trump told reporters on Thursday the US may have to "destroy" the rest of Iran, adding that people will "know soon enough" if he acts.

On Friday, US forces carried out what he described as "minor strikes" against Iranian air defence systems, and Iran's official news agency, IRNA, reported two missiles had again struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

But on the same day, Trump said the US administration is talking to Iranian representatives and told reporters, "We've made a lot of progress with Iran."

Observers say Iran's intransigence over the demands it has made of the US before it will reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz to shipping, balanced against Trump's drubbing at the US midterms, has painted the US president into a tricky corner over what to do next.

So besides the mixed messages from him, what is happening on the ground and what is most likely to happen next? Here is what we know:

Is the US talking to Tehran?

Trump said it is, several times, on Friday.

"We're dealing with them now. They want to make a deal," the US president told reporters, without providing further details.

On Saturday, Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed claims circulating on X that negotiations between the US and Iran had failed, warning that such claims benefit "only those seeking to prolong the war".

Why has the US struck Qeshm Island again?

Trump confirmed the US had carried out military strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island on Friday, while Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in the Suza area of the island. This follows what the US described as "defensive strikes" on the island, considered to be a primary naval base for Iran and housing "missile cities", earlier this week.

The US says it is targeting missile launch systems. On Monday, an unnamed US official told AP that Washington had conducted the strikes to prevent "Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets".

Iranian state broadcaster IRIB also reported an Iranian army statement, saying the country's air defence forces intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-9 drone over the island.

In response to reports of explosions heard on Qeshm, US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees US military operations in the Middle East, said the situation is "relatively calm".

Will the US strike nuclear sites again?

Tehran appears to be preparing for it.

Iran is distributing iodine tablets to communities near its nuclear facilities, the United Kingdom's Times newspaper reported, quoting a Ministry of Health official who said, "Trump can no longer be trusted. He may go through with this crime."

The official added that during every war, Iran has tried to distribute the tablets within a radius of 2-3km (1.2-1.9 miles) of nuclear facilities.
Iodine tablets are used to protect the thyroid gland from radiation.

The newspaper reported that an Iranian political journalist said officials had been told at a recent briefing that a US nuclear strike on the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain site, beneath which is believed to be a large complex of tunnels and facilities, is being seriously considered.

The Young Journalists Club (YJC) news agency in Iran also reported on Friday that health authorities have been distributing iodine tablets to residents of the southern city of Bushehr, home to the country's only operational nuclear power plant.

The US State Department's Rewards for Justice programme meanwhile announced on Friday it is offering a reward of up to $20m and possible relocation for information about Iran's nuclear programme, including its facilities, equipment and associated personnel.