COP31: Why Bangladesh‘s Climate Crisis Must Enter National Security Agenda

The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), which commenced in Antalya, Türkiye, on 9 November 2026, arrives at a defining moment in humanity’s struggle against environmental degradation. Against the backdrop of escalating climate disasters, rising temperatures, energy insecurity and growing disputes over climate finance, the conference confronts a fundamental challenge: transforming decades of international climate commitments into meaningful action.

 For Bangladesh, however, the stakes extend far beyond environmental sustainability. The climate crisis has evolved into a question of national security, threatening territorial integrity, food and water security, public health, economic stability and the long-term viability of the country itself.

 Bangladesh is confronting a particularly dangerous paradox. Although its contribution to historical global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible compared with that of major industrialized economies, its geographical position and socioeconomic vulnerabilities expose its population to disproportionate climate risks. 

Yet, alongside the consequences of global warming, the country is experiencing another self-inflicted catastrophe: environmental pollution, ecological destruction and persistent institutional indifference. The convergence of these challenges is creating a multidimensional national emergency that demands immediate political attention. 

Situated within the world’s largest deltaic system, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin, Bangladesh is intrinsically connected to the natural environment. Its rivers, coastal ecosystems, agricultural lands and wetlands sustain millions of livelihoods. However, these geographical advantages are increasingly becoming sources of vulnerability as climate change intensifies.

Rising sea levels, increasingly destructive cyclones, storm surges, irregular rainfall, riverbank erosion, prolonged heatwaves and salinity intrusion are placing unprecedented pressure on the country’s ecological and economic foundations. According to Bangladesh’s Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), approximately two-thirds of the country’s land lies less than five metres above sea level. The document also identifies sea-level rise as a major external threat, with potentially devastating implications for coastal communities and national development. 

The consequences are already visible across the southwestern coastal belt, particularly in Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat and adjoining districts. Salinity intrusion is contaminating freshwater sources, undermining agricultural productivity and threatening traditional liveliho ods. In vulnerable communities, access to safe drinking water has become an increasingly difficult struggle. Farmers are losing productive land, while fishing communities face mounting ecological and economic uncertainty.

The Sundarbans, the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest and a natural protective barrier against cyclones, is also facing mounting environmental pressures. Its degradation would weaken biodiversity, damage the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities and diminish an essential natural defence against coastal disasters.

The World Bank has warned that Bangladesh could experience approximately 13.3 million internal climate migrants by 2050 under its climate-risk assessment. Such displacement would create enormous pressure on urban housing, employment, healthcare, sanitation and public infrastructure. Dhaka and other major cities could face an increasingly complex combination of climate migration, unemployment, informal settlements and social insecurity.

This is precisely where environmental degradation transcends conventional environmental policy and enters the domain of national security. When people lose their homes, agricultural land and livelihoods, the resulting pressures can undermine social stability, economic productivity and the state’s capacity to provide essential services.

Territorial vulnerability, displacement and resource insecurity are therefore not isolated environmental concerns; they are interconnected security challenges.

While Bangladesh demands international climate justice, it must confront an uncomfortable domestic reality: its own environmental governance is failing to protect the natural resources upon which national survival depends.

Dhaka’s air pollution has become a serious public-health emergency. Unregulated construction, brick kilns, industrial emissions, vehicle exhaust, road dust and inadequate waste management continue to compromise air quality.

According to the World Bank’s Bangladesh Country Environmental Analysis, air pollution, unsafe water, inadequate sanitation and hygiene, and lead exposure collectively contribute to more than 272,000 premature deaths and 5.2 billion days of illness annually. The estimated economic cost of these environmental health risks amounted to 17.6 per cent of GDP. These figures expose a devastating contradiction: environmental degradation is not merely damaging Bangladesh’s ecosystems; it is undermining its human capital and economic future.

The condition of the country’s rivers is equally alarming. The Buriganga, Turag, Shitalakkhya and Balu are suffering from industrial effluent, untreated sewage, plastic waste and unregulated urban discharge. 

Dhaka’s interconnected waterways have been progressively degraded by pollution, encroachment and the disappearance of canals. The World Bank reported in February 2026 that more than 80 per cent of untreated wastewater and sewage in Dhaka is discharged into its interconnected waterways. It also highlighted the disappearance or obstruction of more than half of the city’s canals.

The destruction of wetlands, forests and water bodies further compounds the problem. Unplanned urbanisation, illegal land grabbing and commercial exploitation are weakening natural drainage systems and increasing the consequences of flooding. Meanwhile, plastic pollution and inadequate solid-waste management threaten terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

The fundamental problem is that Bangladesh is simultaneously experiencing externally driven climate change and domestically accelerated environmental destruction. Unless these two dimensions are addressed together, even substantial investments in climate adaptation will produce limited and temporary results.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Bangladesh’s environmental crisis is the persistent disconnect between official commitments and practical implementation.

Successive administrations have introduced environmental policies, announced river-restoration initiatives and promised stronger pollution controls. Nevertheless, the continued deterioration of rivers, wetlands, forests and urban air quality raises serious questions about institutional accountability and political priorities.

Bangladesh’s ruling elites treat climate change crisis as a side note, a “development” topic rather than a survival imperative or a national agenda. The country has produced strategies—Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), Delta Plan 2100, and a National Adaptation Plan—but most exist on paper. There is no comprehensive implementation architecture, no independent oversight, and no climate accountability mechanism integrated into governance or fiscal policy.

The problem therefore is not simply the absence of environmental legislation. It is the failure to enforce existing regulations consistently and impartially. Industrial establishments must not be allowed to discharge untreated waste into rivers simply because  they possess economic or political influence.

Illegal encroachment cannot be tolerated because powerful interests benefit from the occupation of public water bodies. Environmental standards cannot remain symbolic provisions that disappear when confronted with commercial pressure.

Government indifference should therefore be understood not merely as an absence of political rhetoric, but as a failure to translate environmental obligations into measurable institutional outcomes.

Bangladesh needs stronger environmental monitoring, transparent pollution data, independent enforcement mechanisms and meaningful penalties for repeat offenders. 

Functional effluent treatment plants must become mandatory, while environmental impact assessments must genuinely influence development decisions. The Department of Environment requires adequate institutional capacity and operational independence to hold powerful polluters accountable.

Development itself must also be redefined. Economic growth that destroys rivers, contaminates groundwater, depletes forests and compromises public health is neither sustainable nor strategically intelligent. A country cannot secure its economic future by sacrificing the ecological foundations of its prosperity. The COP31 Action Agenda offers Bangladesh an important diplomatic opportunity. Its ten priority themes include zero waste, oceans and seas, food security and climate-resilient cities, alongside wider initiatives addressing energy transition, industrial transformation and climate action. The conference’s emphasis on implementation and measurable outcomes is particularly relevant to countries facing immediate climate vulnerabilities.

First, climate finance must become predictable, accessible and adequate. Bangladesh requires substantial international support for coastal protection, resilient infrastructure, freshwater management, agricultural adaptation and disaster preparedness. Financial assistance must not become another source of unsustainable debt for countries that have contributed relatively little to the climate crisis. For a country contributing less than 0.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the injustice is particularly striking. Bangladesh is paying an increasingly expensive price for a crisis disproportionately produced by industrialized economies. 

Second, the loss-and-damage agenda must produce practical results. Communities that lose homes, agricultural land and livelihoods because of climate-related disasters need accessible mechanisms for recovery and reconstruction. Climate justice cannot  remain a diplomatic expression without financial consequences.

Third, Bangladesh must prioritise the protection of its coastal ecosystems and the Bay of Bengal. The COP31 emphasis on oceans, seas and blue carbon creates an opportunity to strengthen mangrove conservation, restore coastal wetlands, prevent marine pollution and develop sustainable fisheries.

Fourth, food security must be placed at the centre of climate negotiations. Salt-tolerant crop varieties, climate-resilient irrigation, agricultural research, rainwater harvesting and sustainable fisheries are essential investments for Bangladesh. Food insecurity can quickly become an economic and political stability concern when climate shocks undermine production and increase the cost of essential commodities.

Fifth, the transition towards renewable energy must accelerate through a just and economically responsible framework. Bangladesh should expand solar power, strengthen electricity infrastructure, improve energy efficiency and reduce dependence on fossil fuels without compromising affordable energy access.

Finally, climate-resilient cities must become a national priority. Investment in drainage, sanitation, public transportation, green spaces, waste management and resilient housing is essential to protect rapidly urbanizing populations.

For Bangladesh, COP31 should not simply be an international platform for presenting climate vulnerability. It should be an opportunity to negotiate concrete financial commitments, technology partnerships and institutional cooperation that advance the country’s national interests. Bangladesh must recognise that environmental security is inseparable from national security. Climate-induced displacement, freshwater scarcity, declining agricultural productivity, public-health emergencies and the destruction of critical ecosystems can collectively weaken the foundations of national stability.

This requires a comprehensive national environmental security strategy involving the government, armed forces’ disaster-response capabilities, local administrations, scientific institutions, universities, civil society and the private sector. Climate risks should be integrated into national security assessments, infrastructure planning, food-security strategies and long-term economic policymaking.

Regional cooperation is equally indispensable. Bangladesh’s rivers cross international boundaries and effective water management, flood forecasting, disaster preparedness and ecosystem protection require constructive cooperation among countries sharing the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. Environmental security in South Asia cannot be achieved through geopolitical rivalry or unilateral approaches to shared natural resources.

The participation of young people, women, farmers, fishermen, indigenous communities and climate-displaced populations must also become meaningful rather than ceremonial. Those who experience environmental destruction most directly must have a voice in determining the country’s environmental future. Bangladesh should also strengthen its investment in climate science, environmental education and technological innovation. Universities, research institutions, journalists, civil society organizations and young people must become active participants in environmental policymaking.

Environmental education must become mandatory across all schools, colleges and universities to build generational awareness. Media, too, has a vital role—to transform climate coverage from seasonal disaster reporting to sustained policy scrutiny.

There is a profound philosophical contradiction at the heart of modern development: humanity has increasingly treated nature as an inexhaustible economic resource while overlooking the ecological conditions that make civilisation possible. Bangladesh is now experiencing the consequences of that contradiction with extraordinary intensity.

The country cannot endlessly rely on the resilience of its people while allowing preventable environmental destruction to continue. Resilience is not a substitute for responsible governance, just as international assistance cannot permanently compensate for domestic institutional failure.

As COP31 unfolds in Antalya, Bangladesh must speak with diplomatic conviction about climate justice while demonstrating uncompromising commitment to environmental accountability at home.  Developed economies must honour their responsibilities, but Bangladesh’s political leadership must also recognise that protecting the environment is a fundamental obligation towards its citizens.

A nation’s security is not determined exclusively by the strength of its borders, military capabilities or economic indicators. It also depends on the integrity of its rivers, the fertility of its soil, the safety of its drinking water, the resilience of its ecosystems and the well-being of its population.

COP31 must therefore be remembered not for the promises made in Antalya, but for the action that follows. For Bangladesh, environmental protection is no longer an optional development agenda or a matter of international reputation. It is a defining test of political responsibility, national security and the country’s right to a sustainable future.


Emran Emon is an eminent
journalist, columnist and a 
geopolitical analyst. He can be 
reached at [email protected]