AB Mirza Azizul Islam, eminent economist and former Finance Adviser to the last caretaker government, talks about many contemporary issues including the bureaucratic system of Bangladesh, Rohingya crisis, Brexit and the US. Mirza Aziz has been interviewed by M A Khaleque on behalf of The Asian Age.
The Asian Agd (AA): Sectarian violence is going on in Myanmar. Thousands of persecuted Muslims are entering into Bangladesh through borders fleeing from Myanmar. Bangladesh can't provide shelter to these helpless people. The authorities say as an independent nation, we can't open our borders for the citizens of Myanmar. How do you see this total issue?
AB Mirza Azizul Islam (Mirza): There are two aspects of the sectarian violence in Myanmar. One is economic and another is humanitarian. The Muslims of the Arakan have been victims of discriminations of the government for long. As a result, an outrage was prevailing among them. This outrage sometimes took the shape of rebellion. The measures taken by the government to control this rebellion can be said revengeful actions. Many Rohingyas were killed in the military crackdown. Hundreds of houses were burnt down. Many persecuted people entered into Bangladesh through border. Bangladesh is the close-door neighbor of Myanmar. Therefore, Bangladesh is the easiest destination for Rohingyas for seeking refugee. There is another reason of Rohingya influx toward Bangladesh as it is a Muslim country. For this reason, Rohingyas think Bangladesh as a safe shelter. On humanitarian ground, it seems injustice to push them back as it means to throw into certain death. This step deserves to be considered. Initiative should be taken to mount pressure on Myanmar diplomatically for the resolution of this crisis. It can be bilaterally or regionally or internationally. UN or ASEAN can be used in this issue. If this problem isn't resolved through discussion, I think it won't be settled in near future. Once it was thought that Rohingya crisis would be solved after Aung San Suu Kyi came to power as she won Nobel Peace Prize. It was desired she would look into this matter with humanitarian viewpoint. But She didn't pay heed to this for the internal political interest. Initially she didn't make any comment on Rohingya issue. But her later remarks weren't promising. As she didn't do something positive in Rohingya issue, it can be said she indirectly support the atrocities on Rohingyas.
The second aspect of Rohingya issue is economic. This is related to the economy. The Myanmar authorities think they will be beneficial economically if they drive out the Rohingays. Bangladesh is still a populated country. If thousands of Rohingyas enter into Bangladesh, it will surely cast negative impact on our economy. It will be a great problem for Bangladesh to provide shelter and foods to the Rohingyas. They will create problems entering local labor market. Unemployment problem is still evident in Bangladesh. Rohingyas will get involved in different crimes. Rohingyas take shelter different places in the country especially in forest areas. As a result, there will be a possibility of deforestation. Despite of these, Bangladesh can give Rohingyas shelter temporarily and provide foods to them. We can seek assistance of foreign countries and organizations like UN, WFO in this regard.
AA: President Donald Trump made different remarks before the election. He said to drive out illegal migrants from the USA. Kindly tell what may be his future economic plan.
Mirza: It is not clear what steps Donald Trump will take in economic issues as he has fluctuate from economic and other issues on which he made such remarks. He said illegal migrants would be driven away from the USA. But later he told about investigation in this regard. Besides, there are some complexities to expel migrants from USA. Suppose a family is composed with husband, wife, and children. The husband might go to the USA in illegal way and he hasn't got legal citizenship yet. But the children born in the USA are the legal citizens. The court has imposed bar to expel kids from the USA. For these reasons, it won't be easy to expel migrants from the USA though they are illegal. It can't be guess how aggressive policy Donald Trump will take in the migrant issue.
But we are getting a clear indication in trade issues. I assume the USA led by Donald Trump may be more conservative in this case. It has been said to cancel the discussion on TPP deal. If it is done, countries like Bangladesh and China will be benefitted. US may impose more duties on generally imported goods. The bilateral relation of Bangladesh and US is very good. Bangladesh exports readymade garments to the USA. We still pay 14-15% duty on readymade garments. If US increased the import duty, it won't be applicable in case of Bangladesh.
AA: The government of India has cancelled notes of 1000 and 500 rupees. What impact may immediately be cast on the Indian economy? What you think about its impact on the economies of neighboring countries including India?
Mirza: I don't think the issue of demonetization by the Indian government will impact the economy of Bangladesh in any way. But the Bangladeshi tourists who went to India for various reasons fell into difficulties. But it is not possible to say at this moment what impact it will cast on the economy of India. We have learnt this initiative has been taken to make the economy free from the influence of black money. But if opportunity is given, the black money will be invested. There is no reason to think black money will be stopped after demonetization. To get rid of black money, the sources should be stopped. If the regulatory system can't be formulated and implemented properly, the black money will not reduce.
AA: One of the objectives of this was to stop the production of counterfeit rupees. If India stops the production of fake notes, will the counterfeiters not expand their activities in Bangladesh or other neighboring countries?
Mirza: Counterfeit notes are seriously harmful for the economy of any country. So the fake notes must be stopped. If India can stop the production of counterfeit notes, it will rather be helpful for Bangladesh as counterfeit notes produced in India also come to Bangladesh.
AA: It has been reported the amount of registration of local investment in first trimester of the current fiscal year in Bangladesh has dropped by 32% than the same period of the previous year. How do you evaluate this?
Mirza: This information seems doubtful to me. Is it investment registration or implementation? If it is registration, it may reduce. I have been talking for long time about the scarcity of local investment in Bangladesh. The local investment rate has been fluctuating at 21/22% for years. There is ample shortage of congenial atmosphere in the field of investment in our country. We are lagging behind in all indicators of different international organizations in terms of cost of doing business, governance indicator of World Bank, competitiveness indicator of World Economic Forum. The investment won't increase if transport system isn't improved, the supply of gas, electricity, fuel isn't ensured, massive corruption isn't checked. Besides, bureaucratic complexities should be reduced.
AA: It was primarily said 7.05% GDP was achieved last year. But now it has been said the growth in GDP was 7.11%. What are your opinions in this regard?
Mirza: I am doubtful about the growth of GDP. It was primarily said 7.5% growth in GDP was achieved and that time I wrote that there are confusions in the calculations of the outputs of different sectors provided by the government. I got three calculations from three sources of the production in the agriculture sector in 2007 or 2008. I notice big difference among three calculations. It indicates that there are great confusions in the growth of GDP. As I calculate the GDP, growth might be 6.7% last year. Different international organizations predicted that the growth might be 6.6-6.8%. The World Bank also differed with this information. So I think that 7.11% growth in GDP has been achieved.
AA: Discussion is going on about the constitution of the new election commission. Share your thoughts about how an election commission should be constituted for holding a free, fair and credible election?
Mirza: I have no experience in this regard. During the tenure of the last caretaker government led by Dr ATM Shamsul Huda, we, the cabinet members, constituted the election commission with discussion among us. I think an independent-strong election commission is essential in the democratic system and there should be no political influence on it. The power of the election commission should be increased. The financial and administrative power may be boosted. The term of the present election commission will expire in February this year. A credible election commission should be constituted on mutual discussion as early as possible.